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Jan 9-10th snow threat. Disco/OBS


dmc76

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Little stronger at the sfc in Indiana and looks like a better phase aloft but not much improvement to cold sector QPF. 

 

Winner is Hoosier with a 6" bullseye for Lake county and GYY. Swath ends up a little east of the 12z run and a little wetter. 

 

 

post-14-0-92440100-1452233455_thumb.gif

 

 

Bad thing is that it's probably not very likely to hold exactly like that over the next 48 hours.  Nonetheless, gotta like the chances for a solid advisory event and perhaps flirting with warning criteria somewhere around here.

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It appears that eastward "shift" from earlier may have been a punt fake, if the 00z runs and the 06z NAM are any signs.

Just as long as we're not missing a big dog, it's no sweat if this one passes to the NW or overhead.

The overall outcome is still east from a few days ago.

We should see some snow with the changeover then onto the Tuesday clipper. This will be a nice thump for someone to out west, but probably not a big dog for anyone.

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this one is a bit more fun than to track than usual because we're just over a day out and still have such a large variety of solutions still on the table rain, snow or a miss east all still legit possibilities. Still feel like my call falls nicely in that envelop

 

SREF mean up to 4.5" at ORD....lots of garbage, respectable 6-9 cluster

 

EDIT: some improvement in ratios as QPF is around .5 after subtracting the earlier rains

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this one is a bit more fun than to track than usual because we're just over a day out and still have such a large variety of solutions still on the table rain, snow or a miss east all still legit possibilities. Still feel like my call falls nicely in that envelop

SREF mean up to 4.5" at ORD....lots of garbage, respectable 6-9 cluster

EDIT: some improvement in ratios as QPF is around .5 after subtracting the earlier rains

JOT is all over the board...0 to 14...a cluster around 2 and a cluster around 8

...certainly a fun tracker.

Also, make or break model runs on a Friday night and snowstorm hitting on a Saturday night. Weenies all around.

Decent winds with this system too...although every storm the last 3 months has featured this. I had not been keeping a close eye on the ratios yet...that's like cherry on top if those trend upward into the 12+:1 range

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