cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Never would have known there was storm potential if not for thundersnow informing me yesterday. You and Geos = buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 cmc_snow_acc_chicago_11.png Good first image to see. ...But small margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm skipping the reading back 11 pages and just starting where we're at now. Systems go for a good Euro run then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That eastern cutoff is so close. Would feel better if this was the 12z run tomorrow. Wind driven snow on the backside, big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Systems go for a good Euro run then? I'm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 You and Geos = buried. Would have been interesting if I made it into the event without knowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Pre 00z model run...but WPC accum map looks somewhat similar to the 05JAN14 system....not as beefy and shifted a bit...but pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Can bet the wind gusts will be up around these levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The 850mb temps start off cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Little stronger at the sfc in Indiana and looks like a better phase aloft but not much improvement to cold sector QPF. Winner is Hoosier with a 6" bullseye for Lake county and GYY. Swath ends up a little east of the 12z run and a little wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Little stronger at the sfc in Indiana and looks like a better phase aloft but not much improvement to cold sector QPF. Winner is Hoosier with a 6" bullseye for Lake county and GYY. Swath ends up a little east of the 12z run and a little wetter. Bad thing is that it's probably not very likely to hold exactly like that over the next 48 hours. Nonetheless, gotta like the chances for a solid advisory event and perhaps flirting with warning criteria somewhere around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Great graphic^ Don't mind being on the NW edge 48 hours out. But I hope the eastward bleeding stops now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll take it EURO.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 NAM has shifted back to the NW. Has some big snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 It appears that eastward "shift" from earlier may have been a punt fake, if the 00z runs and the 06z NAM are any signs. Just as long as we're not missing a big dog, it's no sweat if this one passes to the NW or overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 4 km goes ape in the St. Louis area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 RGEM goes nuts. Need to get a bit more cold air.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll take the 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Weenie hires are south and they love to be amped at this range. I do have a soft spot for Northern fringe events where the defo bad spins in from the sse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Stage is set for tonight's 00Z run of the NAM on steroids. Should be a good way to spend a Friday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 It appears that eastward "shift" from earlier may have been a punt fake, if the 00z runs and the 06z NAM are any signs. Just as long as we're not missing a big dog, it's no sweat if this one passes to the NW or overhead. The overall outcome is still east from a few days ago. We should see some snow with the changeover then onto the Tuesday clipper. This will be a nice thump for someone to out west, but probably not a big dog for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 this one is a bit more fun than to track than usual because we're just over a day out and still have such a large variety of solutions still on the table rain, snow or a miss east all still legit possibilities. Still feel like my call falls nicely in that envelop SREF mean up to 4.5" at ORD....lots of garbage, respectable 6-9 cluster EDIT: some improvement in ratios as QPF is around .5 after subtracting the earlier rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Over and under game ORD 3.5" GRR 5.0" DTW 2.0" MKE 1.0" Over Over Under Over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 1.6" IMBY final call not bad for day 4 call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 not bad for day 4 call Your call will bust big time. IMO. This is got 4" written all over you and you know it.Detroit on the other hand ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll take the 6z NAM+1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 why is there even a thread on this lol /\ this is why I have no plans of quitting my day job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 /\ this is why I have no plans of quitting my day job Check out your storm around the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 this one is a bit more fun than to track than usual because we're just over a day out and still have such a large variety of solutions still on the table rain, snow or a miss east all still legit possibilities. Still feel like my call falls nicely in that envelop SREF mean up to 4.5" at ORD....lots of garbage, respectable 6-9 cluster EDIT: some improvement in ratios as QPF is around .5 after subtracting the earlier rains JOT is all over the board...0 to 14...a cluster around 2 and a cluster around 8 ...certainly a fun tracker. Also, make or break model runs on a Friday night and snowstorm hitting on a Saturday night. Weenies all around. Decent winds with this system too...although every storm the last 3 months has featured this. I had not been keeping a close eye on the ratios yet...that's like cherry on top if those trend upward into the 12+:1 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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