mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Afternoon afd is out...they are thinking 1-3" with 2-4" in east central IL/northwest IN, with potential for higher amounts. Ah, did not see that last time I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 STEADIER LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK/BROAD ASCENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT EARLY ON...WITH EITHER SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ITS APPEARING THAT CONDITIONS MAY DRY OUT FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SO DID REDUCE POPS DURING THIS TIME...BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE WORDING. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND. VARYING SOLUTIONS ON A CLOSED OR OPEN WAVE AND THE TIMING OF THIS...MAKE FOR COMPLICATED MID/UPPER LEVELS. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY OUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP AND THE PRECIP TYPE. AT THIS TIME...ITS STILL APPEARING THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS TRANSITION LIKELY OCCURRING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE FINISHING TO TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY WITH ALL SNOW THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS LATER THAT EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH EXACT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW FORCING/PRECIP WILL BE LACKING AND WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL RESIDE...OVER NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT FORCING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE FOR NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO PROVIDE SOME STEADY SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT EXITS. HAVE INCREASED POPS/QPF/SNOW FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT THIS TIME AM FORECAST ONE TO THREE INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY OBSERVING TOTALS MORE IN THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE...OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE EARLIER COLD TREND PERSISTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Over and under game ORD 3.5" GRR 5.0" DTW 2.0" MKE 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Over and under game ORD 3.5" under GRR 5.0" under DTW 2.0" over (2.5) MKE 3.0" under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 All under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 All over minus GRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS continues the SE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Last four runs of the NAM, trends with both waves. Maybe I'm talking out my you know what but with the nrn wave trending to a more neutral/little further south look, the srn stream wave could slow down enough to have a better chance of the nrn wave catching it. output_mLaTMl.gif Northern wave did dig a bit more on the 18z GFS compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 They siding with the EURO then? It definitely doesn't sound like the NAM. Well if the NAM didn't do its typical thing of putting holes in the precip. shield, their forecast would work. Follow the western line of the snowfall on this map and most of Western MI would fall withing the 2 to 4 inch range. From what I've seen, most of the models still have us in the 2 to 4 inch range, so I think their call is good. The NAM is on the lower side of things, with the EURO giving us 4 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Northern wave did dig a bit more on the 18z GFS compared to 12z. Srn wave is just weaker/south. Is it RAP time yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Best run for SEMI yet. Might actually get 4-5" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS continues the SE trend. Very slightly. GFS moreso goes along with the trend of weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 For some reason, and I swear this isn't all -talk, I do believe the 18z runs tend to come in SE of the 12z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS continues the SE trend. All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 For some reason, and I swear this isn't all -talk, I do believe the 18z runs tend to come in SE of the 12z and 00z. Ok, so putting that into account, it is actually showing the heaviest snow in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Place to be for this storm is Timmins, Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Place to be for this storm is Timmins, Ontario. It's going to blow up over Canada. I'm kind of happy, kind of pissed. I really wanted the UP to get bombed, but it's going so far SE that it might be in play locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Over and under game ORD 3.5" GRR 5.0" DTW 2.0" MKE 1.0" Under, under, over, under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Lol Canada, who cares The only cool posters from there are missing anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Over and under game ORD 3.5" GRR 5.0" DTW 2.0" MKE 1.0" All Under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 All Under +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Over and under game ORD 3.5" GRR 5.0" DTW 2.0" MKE 1.0" All under, most confident in MKE. Sorry, wisconsinwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Lol Canada, who cares The only cool posters from there are missing anyways. I know it's virtually impossible, but. Imagine flying out to Whistler on a ski trip and oddly enough, all the snow was in the valley and the mountain was bare. Starting to get it yet? It doesn't matter what we want anyhow, I can't will the storm away from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Lol Canada, who cares The only cool posters from there are missing anyways. Really.. and you're so cool yourself???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 If by some chance the SE trend continues, I will be in the snow bomb area. And people in Illinois and Ohio will lynch us. Really.. and you're so cool yourself???? It's ALEX, Ignore him. He's everybody's favorite edgy guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Bernie Rayno has a pretty good video up and he shares his thoughts on the storm. He's expecting the models to start throwing more snow back to the west and gives his reasoning behind it. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4100815092001/snow-wind-and-rapid-freeze-to- Parallel EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'll take the 12z GEM please lol. All other models deliver a dense cirrus canopy here lolz. We need a broad spread the wealth storm system. These nail biters (especially in a season like this) can be frustrating for those who don't get to participate. Hopefully Feb brings more widespread snows across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'll take the 12z GEM please lol. All other models deliver a dense cirrus canopy here lolz. We need a broad spread the wealth storm system 1999 Blizzard redux. These nail biters (especially in a season like this) can be frustrating for those who don't get to participate. Hopefully Feb brings more widespread snows across the board. fyp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Got a chance to look at BUFKIT...despite the marginal temps here, nice zone of lift with it intersecting the DGZ so could have some nice flake size. Even though diurnal effects are near the minimum at this point in the year, I also like that the bulk of this is coming in after dark, assuming that timing holds. It's already a marginal setup and every fraction of a degree counts, especially around here given some marine influence, so it would be nice to take any diurnal contribution off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks like you should be at freezing by 60 hour Hoosier on the 12km NAM. 4km NAM has you at 33° at that same time. As long as those winds aren't blowing off the core of 40° water, I think you'll be fine with N winds and getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.