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Mid-Atlantic winter storm patterns and analogs


Ian

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42 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Time to bump this baby with some good ol' JB specs!

The current 10mb modeling is nearly a carbon copy of 2010 and Cohen supported that with a "like" on Twitter..but the current 500 mb map correlation I ran shows the complete opposite of what we need, so I won't share it.  How unusual is it for the two layers to have such different depictions?

 

There is a lag between the 10mb and the response at 500mb.  

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1 minute ago, BTRWx said:

So they could be on to something then?

I am not sure.  There is some debate about the effect this warming will have.  Some are claiming its not a true strat warm.  I won't pretend to be an expert on this process.  I grasp the basic concept but I am not writing any thesis on it either.  But there is a lag between the warming at the 10mb level and the response at the 500 mb level which is the one that would really impact us as the H5 drives our patterns mostly.  So if we do not get any H5 response the 10mb wont do us any good at all.  But it wouldnt happen at the same time.  Typically the h5 response would be a week or two later.  I am not sure what you were looking at so I can not say.   I have not seen anything more then hints yet on guidance but sometimes if that sort of thing were to happen it comes on suddenly without a lot of warning.  God knows a couple weeks before that great 2010 period people were whining about how crappy January was and that the Dec storm might be a one hit wonder.  

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On 1/6/2016 at 5:11 PM, BTRWx said:

I'm sure someone here can find something better, but here's what the most recent 7-day 500mb looks like for 2016.

500z_07b.rnl.gif

Since this image auto-updates I'll say this here...someone help me continue to bump this!

Not a bad 500mb (h5) look at all for early Feb 2017!

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