BTRWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Really nice job Ian, just finished reading your blog post. That blocking, specifically for Knickerbocker and Snowmaggedon Let's see here. 2 weeks prior=warm + 1 week prior cold air starting to pour in to midatlantic ~= 2016 January early warmth + current week transitional cold == Simple Math! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looks great. Am I seeing right that a west based -NAO a week prior was trending toward positive territory at the time of the storm? Think it was probably pretty standard for the week prior and more west based two weeks out. Overall it's a squashing/diminishing block into storm time it would seem. The big northern stream dominated events seem to have more of an elongated "hudson bay block" that sort of peters out a bit as the storm gets cranking around us. Really nice job Ian, just finished reading your blog post. That blocking, specifically for Knickerbocker and Snowmaggedon Thanks, something I've been planning on doing a while. Finally got the motivation. Hopefully can add 5 storm chunks fairly rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Awesome blog post, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think something interesting to learn would be to find some dates of how far in advanced typical blocking first centers itself over the heart of Greenland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Does anyone remember the board mood around this time in '10? Pretty despondent, and that was after getting the Dec. '09 gift. In any event, pretty clearly we had blocking for the Dec. '09 goodness - but my recall is it relaxed and that was when people got worried. I am not looking to make this an analog for Feb. '10 in terms of what we are in in now, but what I cannot recall is what the maps looked like from say 1/5 - 1/25 as it led up to that epic 12-day period from 1/30/10 - 2/10/10. And I am trying to recall because the negative AO and NAO as currently hinted at upcoming put me in mind of 2010 in terms of that. Per psuhoffman's thoughts in the other threads, was it similar with the northern stream ripping along with vorts well to our north due to Nino influence? I have no recall of what the set-up was between 12/19/09 and when we cashed in again with the surprise event on 1/30/10. I know we had a warm and rainy system just after Christmas, and then Ji canceled the rest of winter at some point over the next several weeks. Just trying to figure out if there are any clues from that time to when we might see something this winter (if not as epic, at least a measureable set of flakes). Sorry for rambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Does anyone remember the board mood around this time in '10? Pretty despondent, and that was after getting the Dec. '09 gift. In any event, pretty clearly we had blocking for the Dec. '09 goodness - but my recall is it relaxed and that was when people got worried. I am not looking to make this an analog for Feb. '10 in terms of what we are in in now, but what I cannot recall is what the maps looked like from say 1/5 - 1/25 as it led up to that epic 12-day period from 1/30/10 - 2/10/10. And I am trying to recall because the negative AO and NAO as currently hinted at upcoming put me in mind of 2010 in terms of that. Per psuhoffman's thoughts in the other threads, was it similar with the northern stream ripping along with vorts well to our north due to Nino influence? I have no recall of what the set-up was between 12/19/09 and when we cashed in again with the surprise event on 1/30/10. I know we had a warm and rainy system just after Christmas, and then Ji canceled the rest of winter at some point over the next several weeks. Just trying to figure out if there are any clues from that time to when we might see something this winter (if not as epic, at least a measureable set of flakes). Sorry for rambling. I was literally plotting that exact scenario within the last hour. Let me see what I can grab. Any preference on what period to plot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Leading up to snowmageddon prior to Ian's maps. NOTE: Ian plotted averages around these days for these particular weeks. The ones below are for specific days. eta Feb 2017: Updated maps for long term analoging 5 days prior 10 days prior 15 days prior 20 days prior 30 days prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 btr - thanks for that - much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I know how to plot months but how do you plot specific weeks or days like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I know how to plot months but how do you plot specific weeks or days like that? There is a separate link. I was wondering the same for a while. Links to both daily and monthly composites are along the left side bar when you scroll down. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 There's also this one for 48-present. Not sure if they are updating the other.. hope so but it's only thru 2012. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ Basically google ESRL plus daily/monthly/6hr and you'll find them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ian, responding to your tweets with the gifs of the upcoming pattern and past snowy patterns: Not sure how robust/important those low heights right at the pole are. Seems weird. What I note is the low heights through southern Canada that rotate east and become a 50/50 for the snowstorm itself. Then higher heights replace it over the Lakes and Canadian prairies. That supports high pressure to our north and holds in the cold air. Seems like we still keep seeing low heights over the Lakes for the next week to 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yeah I'm not sure either. It is only 10 events so could be even one or two weighting it. I need to expand in various ways probably. I'm just less sold the day of snapshot tells the whole story as I go. Then again including multiple 09/10 events in a composite probably weights that year a bit too much too. That said while perhaps a low height area over the poll isn't really across events I think lowering of heights there might be. Agree we have problems next 7-10 at least. Beyond that is guesswork. We do chase HECS tho. Btw Im not even sure I follow you, should pm me your account handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yeah I'm not sure either. It is only 10 events so could be even one or two weighting it. I need to expand in various ways probably. I'm just less sold the day of snapshot tells the whole story as I go. Then again including multiple 09/10 events in a composite probably weights that year a bit too much too. That said while perhaps a low height area over the poll isn't really across events I think lowering of heights there might be. Agree we have problems next 7-10 at least. Beyond that is guesswork. We do chase HECS tho. Btw Im not even sure I follow you, should pm me your account handle. I think you do follow me, but I rarely tweet myself. Mostly a Twitter lurker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is about what you look for at 500mb for a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is about what you look for at 500mb for a HECS Nice one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 This is about what you look for at 500mb for a HECS Hopefully you replace this with MLK 1 in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Here's some storms from NARR.. I slowed them down during the key timeframes (eyeballed etc). Feb 1979 Feb 2010 Jan 1996 Feb 2003 Feb 1983 Dec 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Ian nice analogs. It would be interesting to divide out the northern stream ones from the southern stream. Years ago I did a similar graphic of 8 inch or greater events at DCA focusing on 24 hours prior tot he storm (10 of them picked from the KU book) and got a similar look to what you found. I used the graphic in yesterday's Outlook article to show that most of the progs have been lacking the negative anomaly/low heights near Nova Scotia. Lol, then the 18Z GFS came in with the negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Ian nice analogs. It would be interesting to divide out the northern stream ones from the southern stream. Years ago I did a similar graphic of 8 inch or greater events at DCA focusing on 24 hours prior tot he storm (10 of them picked from the KU book) and got a similar look to what you found. I used the graphic in yesterday's Outlook article to show that most of the progs have been lacking the negative anomaly/low heights near Nova Scotia. Lol, then the 18Z GFS came in with the negative.And so the plot thickens! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Ian, the NARR loops are great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Here's some storms from NARR.. I slowed them down during the key timeframes (eyeballed etc). *snip* Great stuff Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Great stuff Ian. They are great-- thanks for taking the time to load them, Ian. Just FYI: I think you loaded PDII again under 12/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 They are great-- thanks for taking the time to load them, Ian. Just FYI: I think you loaded PDII again under 12/09. Yep, oops. Fixed it. Thanks all! I love patterns. Probably too much. I'll add some more with time too, just ran out of patience to keep going last night. And yes Wes splitting streams would be worthwhile. Have a few ideas with that, will try to get them done in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Excellent work Ian, thanks for putting all this stuff together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Here's some storms from NARR.. I slowed them down during the key timeframes (eyeballed etc). Feb 1979 Feb 2010 Jan 1996 Feb 2003 Feb 1983 Dec 2009 Sweet, always love looking at the NARR. Ian, you should of added January 25, 2000. Not sure how DC did but near the bay we were in the jackpot area. I got 17" from that surprise storm. I remember looking at the radar around 8pm on the 24th and saw the precip coming straight north. Sure enough at about 9pm The Weather Channel started going nuts with the red screen Winter Storm Warning. I always wondered what forecasters and the models missed with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Top 15 snow days since 1948 composite maps by city up and down the coast. Used 1948 so I could pull from the 81-2010 climo period set and it's the most updated dataset. Also put them here: http://imgur.com/a/FLusc Bangor, ME Boston, MA NYC, NY Philadelphia, PA Washington, DC Richmond, VA Raleigh, NC Columbia, SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 This is a small list .. would like to get it up to 15 or so but that could take a while the way I'm doing it now. BUT.. these are 12"+ DC storms that featured significant blocking in the Greenland to Hudson Bay region on day of biggest snow. Others have it around prior and out for storm, others have not much etc. Dominated by Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 I don't even really know what to do with this stuff yet but I was bored and pulled up top height anomalies (since 1948) for certain regions. Def not all snowy, tho a general cold lean. The first is random, the second is the northern box of the NAO region. They only have monthly stuff for now which is not as useful as daily perhaps. http://imgur.com/zfsUWpM http://imgur.com/ZgQ8Ali Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Petersburg VA picked up 21" of snow on January 10th, 1883... 1883 from the NY Sun... http://chroniclingam...-11/ed-1/seq-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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