Lake effect snow thread

[Jonger]

No I do understand that, I just think the 300" number is overblown and all the data I have seen points in that direction. Is there a chance that Jonger found the one 5 square mile area that might be close to 300" on average? Sure but that region as a whole from SSM to Wawa away from the coast and up in elevation is probably 180-220" on average which would match everything I have seen.

 

I have NEVER seen a map for that area that wasn't just generalized low resolution.

 

We are talking about an 120 mile stretch that is about 50 miles wide.

[Stebo]

The Tug is pretty much a one trick pony. When they get it... THEY GET IT. Often times, they aren't in the right spot.

 

Plus, the Tug probably ends up too warm for many synoptic events.

They get plenty of synoptic snow, Montreal isn't very far from them and they average 82.5" of snow a year.

[weatherbo]

No I do understand that, I just think the 300" number is overblown and all the data I have seen points in that direction. Is there a chance that Jonger found the one 5 square mile area that might be close to 300" on average? Sure but that region as a whole from SSM to Wawa away from the coast and up in elevation is probably 180-220" on average which would match everything I have seen.

OK stebo... I respect your opinion.... MQT averages 203" and my area I was told by MQT averages 225-250".  I think you are wrong on this.

[dmc76]

Another thing that area gets more Arctic shots then the tug does and it snows a lot earlier and a lot later in the season. I bet they average well over 300"

[Stebo]

OK stebo... I respect your opinion.... MQT averages 203" and my area I was told by MQT averages 225-250".  I think you are wrong on this.

If your area gets 225-250" on average then I could buy that for the area Jonger is talking about. You guys get a bit more synoptic snow than they probably do and they probably get a bit more lake effect.

[BuffaloWeather]

The ski country south of Buffalo in favored up-slope areas average 2-250" a year. The Tug favored upslope areas average 275-325"+

 

Hooker NY still holds the all time yearly snowfall record with 467" in 1977. Its the highest yearly total west of the Rockies.

 

2 years ago off Erie Perrysburg had a total of 311", Redfield received 354" that same year. 

[tuanis]

If your area gets 225-250" on average then I could buy that for the area Jonger is talking about. You guys get a bit more synoptic snow than they probably do and they probably get a bit more lake effect.

I've always been curious about that area as well. They do take weekly snow depth measurements from 10 snow snow stations at Lake Superior Provincial Park, but that's a little ways north. Per this website, average snowfall at Red Rock Lake well inland and at a higher elevation than the lake is close to 200":

http://www.lakesuperiorpark.ca/index.php/park-info/winter-in-the-park

[Stebo]

I've always been curious about that area as well. They do take weekly snow depth measurements from 10 snow snow stations at Lake Superior Provincial Park, but that's a little ways north. Per this website, average snowfall at Red Rock Lake well inland and at a higher elevation than the lake is close to 200":

http://www.lakesuperiorpark.ca/index.php/park-info/winter-in-the-park

Yeah that would gel with what I have read/seen as well. That is still south of Wawa though so it is in the general area. Red Rock Lake is about 32 miles in land from the Lake, so it isn't that far in. At least not far enough in that you'd lose 100" of accumulation.

[josh_4184]

I have little doubt you'll see at least 20" over a 10 day.

I think the East Jordan area does really well there with shifting wind fetches.  Anything from wsw to nw they catch it.  Where I lived in Ellsworth was the same, only closer to the shore which limited it some.

I agree, although I usually always have more snow that East Jordan at my area (I work in EJ) and very rarly have they had more snow then the higher elevations unless there is a good SW les event.  I bet somewhere between my house as towards mancelonna sees 26-30".

[slow poke]

Yeah that would gel with what I have read/seen as well. That is still south of Wawa though so it is in the general area. Red Rock Lake is about 32 miles in land from the Lake, so it isn't that far in. At least not far enough in that you'd lose 100" of accumulation.

 

I took this picture last week from the shore of Lake Superior just west of Whitefish Point. If you look hard enough you can see the "hills" off in the distance across the lake. That is the area you guys are talking about, Agawa Bay area Canada. I have family up there at Whitefish area so we are up there a lot and I always find myself looking over at them big hills across the water wondering how much snow they can get up on top of them so this is a pretty cool topic for me anyway. I'm kind of with Stebo on this though as I don't think they average 300+" a year. Doesn't that area need more of a west (ish) wind to really cash in on the lake effect? And it seems to me  the predominant wind flow is more north, north/west most of the winter which would tend to miss that area somewhat. I will say that I bet they have very little snow melt up in them 1500'-2000' hills Dec-Mar so that's what helps give them the deep snow pack that Jonger sees while up there. Again, just my opinion and I would like to see some stats on that area snow wise.

[dmc76]

^ Never mind 300" a season. They might get 350" a season. Way to much water to play with along with so many Arctic fronts. A lake that never freezes over and so many wind directions to work with along elevation. Oh yea they get body slammed with snowfall every season.

[slow poke]

I'm pretty sure Whitefish Point averages 140" per season. I just find it hard to believe that they get more then double that just across the bay. I've been wrong before so who knows.

[dmc76]

I'm pretty sure Whitefish Point averages 140" per season. I just find it hard to believe that they get more then double that just across the bay. I've been wrong before so who knows.

Whitefish point is a bad comparison considering they only have 2 solid wind directions to play with WNW, NW.

This is a good example Traverse City averages 101" meanwhile just 20 mins away ESE of them in South Boardman averages 140". I bet the elevation difference is 500-600 feet higher then TC. Elevation my friend in a snowbelt is huge. That's 40% more.

[josh_4184]

I'm pretty sure Whitefish Point averages 140" per season. I just find it hard to believe that they get more then double that just across the bay. I've been wrong before so who knows.

Here is APX Avg snowfall map which does graze the whitefish point area. I think this map is a little "underdone" in some areas but overall pretty decent look at what you could "expect". It doesn't cover the areas outside there watch area which includes the "disputed" area everyone is talking about. I wouldn't be surprised if an area over there does exceed 300" or more annually but without an actual trained observer or weather station be hard to measure. 

 

[weatherbo]

Anyone who thinks the higher elevations around Wawa don't average 300"+ needs to up their game on lake effect. I think this is an out of sight out of mind thing.

Total team jonger on this issue.

[dmc76]

Anyone who thinks the higher elevations around Wawa don't average 300"+ needs to up their game on lake effect. I think this is an out of sight out of mind thing.

Total team jonger on this issue.

That area is a lake effect machine. Just pay attention next week on satellite and radar. I bet next week alone they get 30-40".

[roardog]

That area would be miserable in the Spring and early Summer. All of the warm wind directions have marine influence. Probably a lot of foggy days when the warm air tries to come in.

[tuanis]

Doesn't that area need more of a west (ish) wind to really cash in on the lake effect? And it seems to me  the predominant wind flow is more north, north/west most of the winter which would tend to miss that area somewhat.

 

Here is a chart showing typical wind directions during the year in Wawa. Looks like quite a bit of the winter sees north and northeast winds per this chart.

 

Here's the website I pulled that info from: https://weatherspark.com/averages/28431/Wawa-Ontario-Canada

[MikeGold]

Anyone who thinks the higher elevations around Wawa don't average 300"+ needs to up their game on lake effect. I think this is an out of sight out of mind thing.

Total team jonger on this issue.

 

I will chime in on this topic. I use to live/snowmobile in Gaylord and spent a lot of time in the Eastern UP and also in Soo Canada and have traveled to Searchmont and along the Superior shoreline during lake effect snowstorms.   I have spent a lot of time looking at snow depth data and local Soo radar(For example..look at it now! https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WGJ )  during lake effect events and familiar with all the climatology data that is available. I even bought a cabin at Lakes of the North in Antrim county near Gaylord simply because that area gets the most snow in all of lower Michigan and I wanted to enjoy it!  I am very confident that the area just North of Batchawana Bay at the 2000 feet level gets a phenomenal amount of snow and likely surpasses the Tug Plateau in an average year. (As a general rule of thumb..one should add at least 10" of snow per each 100 feet raise in elevation in that area.(I seen this number used in some local lake effect research papers)  If we start with an average of about 175" in the area around T. Falls...adjust for elevation...275" then acknowledge that the fetch/shear number of snow events just North of Batchawana Bay is considerably more/better than T. Falls...a seasonal average of 300"+ is a very reasonable assumption. The snow depth numbers are crazy high in that area compared to the extremely snowy areas of the U.P. as a rule as well although part of that can be attributed to the generally consistently colder temperatures. Overall, lake effect snow storms that develop from Lake Superior have been little studied and certainly don't get much media attention like the lake effect events from Lake Ontario but nevertheless they are kickass and relentless and occur at a much higher frequency than in the lower lakes. Freezing up of the lake isn't a problem most years either.  The amount of synoptic snow is certainly pretty good as well.  

 

Worth looking at Searchmont.  They only average 130" of snow. http://www.searchmont.com/trail-map-stats/ (Note: I'm not sure at what elevation they measure the snow at but it is probably at the base which is only at 898 feet and not at the summit which is at 1601 feet.)

 

However, if you look at the location closely, one will note that they are about 15 miles from the bay portion of Lake Superior itself but more importantly a moist parcel of lake modified air must cross 15 miles of rather hilly terrain that is as high or higher than the resort to reach it which will likely put Searchmont in a snow shadow such as seen just East of Gaylord or on the Eastern side of the Tug. Further, the very common Westerly wind events generally pass just North of Searchmont and the intense banding common from NW wind events often passes just to their SW. I have witnessed this on trips to Searchmont.

[josh_4184]

I will chime in on this topic. I use to live/snowmobile in Gaylord and spent a lot of time in the Eastern UP and also in Soo Canada and have traveled to Searchmont and along the Superior shoreline during lake effect snowstorms.   I have spent a lot of time looking at snow depth data and local Soo radar(For example..look at it now! https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WGJ )  during lake effect events and familiar with all the climatology data that is available. I even bought a cabin at Lakes of the North in Antrim county near Gaylord simply because that area gets the most snow in all of lower Michigan and I wanted to enjoy it!  I am very confident that the area just North of Batchawana Bay at the 2000 feet level gets a phenomenal amount of snow and likely surpasses the Tug Plateau in an average year. (As a general rule of thumb..one should add at least 10" of snow per each 100 feet raise in elevation in that area.(I seen this number used in some local lake effect research papers)  If we start with an average of about 175" in the area around T. Falls...adjust for elevation...275" then acknowledge that the fetch/shear number of snow events just North of Batchawana Bay is considerably more/better than T. Falls...a seasonal average of 300"+ is a very reasonable assumption. The snow depth numbers are crazy high in that area compared to the extremely snowy areas of the U.P. as a rule as well although part of that can be attributed to the generally consistently colder temperatures. Overall, lake effect snow storms that develop from Lake Superior have been little studied and certainly don't get much media attention like the lake effect events from Lake Ontario but nevertheless they are kickass and relentless and occur at a much higher frequency than in the lower lakes.  

HI Mike,

 

I live right across the street from LON in wilderness valley. Can I ask why you moved? How long did you stay in the area?

[MikeGold]

HI Mike,

 

I live right across the street from LON in wilderness valley. Can I ask why you moved? How long did you stay in the area?

 

I am familiar with Wilderness Valley. That area actually is in a bit of snow shadow of LON as I recall many times lake effect snow picking up just as you cross the Antrim county line passing West on the road to Mancelona or North towards snowy Elmira. 

 

I lived in Gaylord for a couple of years back in 1988(then moved to the Lansing area for work) but kept a couple of cottages..one at Lakes of the North and one on Lake Wequas till a few years ago.(Pretty sure one of the seasons shortly after arriving, LON received 250".) At that point, I bought the highest privately owned mountain top on the East Coast in North Carolina that came complete with a weather observation tower as a change of pace. I then had the pleasure of working with NASA/Duke U. on weather research that took place on that mountain and surrounding mountain tops in Western N.C also as a change of pace from storm chasing the Plains. (You can read about it here:https://mtlynlowrynorthcarolina.wordpress.com/  The weather up there is weather weenie's dream spot!) 

[josh_4184]

I am familiar with Wilderness Valley. That area actually is in a bit of snow shadow of LON as I recall many times lake effect snow picking up just as you cross the Antrim county line passing West on the road to Mancelona or North towards snowy Elmira. 

 

I lived in Gaylord for a couple of years back in 1988(then moved to the Lansing area for work) but kept a couple of cottages..one at Lakes of the North and one on Lake Wequas till a few years ago.(Pretty sure one of the seasons shortly after arriving, LON received 250".) At that point, I bought the highest privately owned mountain top on the East Coast in North Carolina that came complete with a weather observation tower as a change of pace. I then had the pleasure of working with NASA/Duke U. on weather research that took place on that mountain and surrounding mountain tops in Western N.C also as a change of pace from storm chasing the Plains. (You can read about it here:https://mtlynlowrynorthcarolina.wordpress.com/ ) 

I looked at property in LON but I really wanted some land/privacy and you just couldn't get that there, not really sure about snow comparing the two as I generally rode sleds all over that area and most times those areas were pretty close in snowfall. From Hayes Tower rd west towards starvation lake then up over towards Elmira usually always had the most on the ground.  Either way certainty not going to complain its a great area and we love being able to live there.

 

Do you get decent snow over in the apps at your elevation? 

[slow poke]

I am familiar with Wilderness Valley. That area actually is in a bit of snow shadow of LON as I recall many times lake effect snow picking up just as you cross the Antrim county line passing West on the road to Mancelona or North towards snowy Elmira. 

 

I lived in Gaylord for a couple of years back in 1988(then moved to the Lansing area for work) but kept a couple of cottages..one at Lakes of the North and one on Lake Wequas till a few years ago.(Pretty sure one of the seasons shortly after arriving, LON received 250".) At that point, I bought the highest privately owned mountain top on the East Coast in North Carolina that came complete with a weather observation tower as a change of pace. I then had the pleasure of working with NASA/Duke U. on weather research that took place on that mountain and surrounding mountain tops in Western N.C also as a change of pace from storm chasing the Plains. (You can read about it here:https://mtlynlowrynorthcarolina.wordpress.com/ ) 

 

Sounds very cool Mike. Sounds like your living on top of my dream location, just south a 1000 or so miles. What's your avg. snowfall down there? We use to rent places in LON back in the early 90's before we built over at Higgins. Great location for snow for sure.

[MikeGold]

I looked at property in LON but I really wanted some land/privacy and you just couldn't get that there, not really sure about snow comparing the two as I generally rode sleds all over that area and most times those areas were pretty close in snowfall. From Hayes Tower rd west towards starvation lake then up over towards Elmira usually always had the most on the ground.  Either way certainty not going to complain its a great area and we love being able to live there.

 

Do you get decent snow over in the apps at your elevation? 

 

Yes...I have ridden all through those areas.  I recall at being amazed at just how narrow/localized intense lake effect snow bands could be...one could blast a snowmobile through a narrow band in 5 minutes.  The fields near Elmira are crazy for producing whiteouts and made following the trail back home downright scary.

 

The mountains of Western NC do get some modest contribution from the Lakes themselves but NW flow events usually are working with moisture that is left over from cyclones either moving up the Ohio valley or the backlash from storms moving up the coast. Areas at or very near the TN/NC line pick up about 100" with a local hot spot being Roan Mountain that often has drifts exceeding 20 feet.  Mount LeConte lodge is another location that often gets very impressive totals. (The Winter caretaker of the lodge gives daily reports which always are a good read: http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts)

 

My mountain location is in the snow-shadow of the Smoky Mountains and sees about a 50% reduction from snow coming from NW flow events. Per the old timers on the mountains..some El Nino years probably produce 150" with the snow season extending well into May due to the extremely high elevation. Locally, super cold upper level lows can produce some amazing Springtime totals as well. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/anniversary-of-freak-five-feet-of-nc-snow/18831 Even a hurricane can dump a lot of snow there: http://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/cases/2012/Sandy_Snow_Final_13March2013.pdf   The snow level on my mountain is generally at about 5800 feet. Some locations just a few miles away average no more than 5 inches a year.

 

I keep an eye on my mountain via this webcam: http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/BuddynOreo/1/show.html

Looks like the top of the mountain is in a cloud which is normally the case.  The winds up there can be ridiculous. The previous weather observation tower and at a different time, the storage shed were destroyed and blown into the next county. Note that it is actually at a higher elevation than the famously windy Grandfather mountain monitoring location but NW wind events are impeded by the Smokies.  (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/news/2006-01-29-record-wind_x.htm )  This is what it looks like on a normal windy day in April: 

 

 

Those balsam trees can take a lot of abuse.

[Stebo]

Here is a chart showing typical wind directions during the year in Wawa. Looks like quite a bit of the winter sees north and northeast winds per this chart.

 

Here's the website I pulled that info from: https://weatherspark.com/averages/28431/Wawa-Ontario-Canada

Unfavorable for lake effect, really that area needs a straight west wind just like the Tug Hill Plateau. When it happens though it is usually spectacular.

[MikeGold]

Unfavorable for lake effect, really that area needs a straight west wind just like the Tug Hill Plateau. When it happens though it is usually spectacular.

 

Actually, a wind rose from the Soo is much more applicable: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/wea_windroseclim.pl?laKANJ  (However, certainly the SW wind at Wawa is also a very important lake snow producing wind but not so much in the area to the South of there.)

 

W/NW winds are quite common there during the Winter.  There is often a convergence line of West winds meeting with very cold NE winds very close to the Soo and over the enhanced snow area just to the North of there as cold area often circles Lake Superior then advects in from the NE meeting up with the wind that goes around on the South side.  One should note that the surface winds and the all important winds at 850mb are often quite different. (Note also the SE wind from Lake Huron can dump heavy snow in and near the Soo area as well.)

[Buffalo Bumble]

Very interesting discussion - I've always wondered about average snowfall in that area.  Not to make this a competition between the Tug and these areas east of L. Superior...but one thing I wonder about is the banding structure off the east end of L. Superior.  Because of L. Ontario's geometry/size, we get very intense single bands resulting in prolific snowfall rates.  Having never experienced a lake effect storm off L. Superior (bucket list item), and just based on what I've seen on radar, it would seem that the bands off Superior are predominantly multi-banded and much less intense...Something to consider when comparing seasonal snowfall between the 2 areas (other "plus" for Tug is the added moisture from the upper lakes).  

 

Either way, it's a no-brainer that L. Superior snow belts cash in way more frequently and for a longer period of time than lower lakes.  

[Jonger]

Wawa is too far north along the lake and too low of Elevation.

 

50 miles straight south of Wawa... In the 1500+ Ft neighborhood.... That's where the magic happens.

 

300 mile lake fetch.

[MikeGold]

Very interesting discussion - I've always wondered about average snowfall in that area.  Not to make this a competition between the Tug and these areas east of L. Superior...but one thing I wonder about is the banding structure off the east end of L. Superior.  Because of L. Ontario's geometry/size, we get very intense single bands resulting in prolific snowfall rates.  Having never experienced a lake effect storm off L. Superior (bucket list item), and just based on what I've seen on radar, it would seem that the bands off Superior are predominantly multi-banded and much less intense...Something to consider when comparing seasonal snowfall between the 2 areas (other "plus" for Tug is the added moisture from the upper lakes).  

 

Either way, it's a no-brainer that L. Superior snow belts cash in way more frequently and for a longer period of time than lower lakes.  

 

 

Probably true but there has been some well documented intense bands off Lake Superior as described here producing 60"+ from one event at lake level: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/apx/presentations/Historic%20Upper%20Michigan%20Weather%20Events.pdf (To be more precise, 24" of the total came from Lake Huron)

[Jonger]

That area is a lake effect machine. Just pay attention next week on satellite and radar. I bet next week alone they get 30-40".

 

The radar station based in Montreal River was recently upgraded and added to Wunderground's weenie map.

 

You can track this stuff now.