TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Beautiful. Some of that is definitely synoptic-based as it is showing a foot of snow over northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Beautiful. Some of that is definitely synoptic-based as it is showing a foot of snow over northern Illinois. Yep, I went through it and <3 inches here in MI is synoptic, rest is lake effect. With the wind's the GFS is hinting at, this could cause some places to have near blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Hope ya like LES. I think 1-2' is easily obtainable for many LES areas, Western NY some areas see 4-6' easily with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think 1-2' is easily obtainable for many LES areas, Western NY some areas see 4-6' easily with this setup. My new man-crush is on Ontario... Look at all that sexiness just past the International bridge. Heading up the weekend after this one. Might cruise up to Alpena next week for a day ride. Last winter I took this in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 My new man-crush is on Ontario... Look at all that sexiness just past the International bridge. Heading up the weekend after this one. Might cruise up to Alpena next week for a day ride. Last winter I took this in Ontario. snow house.jpg Never rode in Canada, not to far of a drive from my house though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Never rode in Canada, not to far of a drive from my house though... I can get to the trail-head in 4 hrs from here. All expressway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We got some nice trails here as well. Looking to buy a house this year and want to be right along a trail as they are all interconnected across the southern tier here in ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just moved to Cleveland. How does it usually fair during lake effect setups like these? It really depends on where in the area you are, but as a general rule WNW winds tend to be best. Cleveland really cashes in on enhancement events, but there needs to be storms for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I can get to the trail-head in 4 hrs from here. All expressway. What is the avg snowfall over there NE of the Sault in Ontario? I assume plenty of good off trail locations? Heck this year they don't even have much snow "yet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 My new man-crush is on Ontario... Look at all that sexiness just past the International bridge. Heading up the weekend after this one. Might cruise up to Alpena next week for a day ride. Last winter I took this in Ontario. snow house.jpg Head to Muskoka, two hours north of Toronto. I lived there for two winters. They get snows off of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, and stay cold enough to for the snow to just keep piling up. Lots of good trails there. I loved their climate! The black flies after the snow melted though............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What is the avg snowfall over there NE of the Sault in Ontario? I assume plenty of good off trail locations? Heck this year they don't even have much snow "yet". Go to the NWS interactive snow depth site. I don't know the averages, I'd guess the whole stretch between Wawa and the Soo averages 125 inches near Lake level -- to 350 inches at 1,500 ft+ elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 A little disappointed the system will be a miss to the southeast.Snow forecasted through Sunday at 7. I think I'll see 25-30" in the next week to 10 days. Should make the businesses in the towns happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Go to the NWS interactive snow depth site. I don't know the averages, I'd guess the whole stretch between Wawa and the Soo averages 125 inches near Lake level -- to 350 inches at 1,500 ft+ elevation. Dude we went over this before, no one averages 350" of snow downwind of Lake Superior... Hell no one downwind of Lake Ontario averages 350" in the Tug Hill Plateau and that area is way more prone to lake effect snow than the eastern end of Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 A little disappointed the system will be a miss to the southeast. Snow forecasted through Sunday at 7. I think I'll see 25-30" in the next week to 10 days. Should make the businesses in the towns happy. MQT_Snow.png Great news for up north, they have been hurting bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 A little disappointed the system will be a miss to the southeast. Snow forecasted through Sunday at 7. I think I'll see 25-30" in the next week to 10 days. Should make the businesses in the towns happy. MQT_Snow.png Looking pretty good, we sure could use it, I bet a couple locations around my area have well over 2' by end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looking pretty good, we sure could use it, I bet a couple locations around my area have well over 2' by end of next week. I have little doubt you'll see at least 20" over a 10 day. I think the East Jordan area does really well there with shifting wind fetches. Anything from wsw to nw they catch it. Where I lived in Ellsworth was the same, only closer to the shore which limited it some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Dude we went over this before, no one averages 350" of snow downwind of Lake Superior... Hell no one downwind of Lake Ontario averages 350" in the Tug Hill Plateau and that area is way more prone to lake effect snow than the eastern end of Lake Superior. Herman, MI averages 300 inches. Don't base the Ontario figures on Wawa.... It's lake level. This is a common comparison between "Lake Level" and "The Hills". Look at the water content of the snowpack, that didn't get there from rain, it's dense snow. The deepest, most dense snow east of the Rocky Mountains. These hills average 130 inches of synoptic snow alone. Didn't Bo post that Marquette averages 130 inches of synoptic, just yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Herman, MI averages 300 inches. Don't base the Ontario figures on Wawa.... It's lake level. This is a common comparison between "Lake Level" and "The Hills". Look at the water content of the snowpack, that didn't get there from rain, it's dense snow. The deepest, most dense snow east of the Rocky Mountains. These hills average 130 inches of synoptic snow alone. Didn't Bo post that Marquette averages 130 inches of synoptic, just yesterday? Snow.jpg I've seen snow depths in the Wawa area in March of 75". Areas around here that cross the 300" mark usually top out around 50-55"... that I have witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Herman, MI averages 300 inches. Don't base the Ontario figures on Wawa.... It's lake level. This is a common comparison between "Lake Level" and "The Hills". Look at the water content of the snowpack, that didn't get there from rain, it's dense snow. The deepest, most dense snow east of the Rocky Mountains. These hills average 130 inches of synoptic snow alone. Didn't Bo post that Marquette averages 130 inches of synoptic, just yesterday? Snow.jpg I am basing my figures on every map and table I have seen for Ontario from multiple sources including Environment Canada. Water equivalent maps don't tell snowfall and furthermore that isn't an average map, that is probably one of the snowiest instances on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I've seen snow depths in the Wawa area in March of 75". Areas around here that cross the 300" mark usually top out around 50-55"... that I have witnessed. Yup. Wawa is a low point. We typically avoid riding at lake level past March 1st ANYWERE. March 28th we were in Echo Bay Ontario, it was actually dusty on the sides of the road. Snow was trashed. Rode up 500 feet, pure powder and 3 ft. Rode up another 500 feet, 5 feet of powder. Elevation is extremely important for LES and those 3-6F reduction in annual temps between 600 ft and 1500+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I am basing my figures on every map and table I have seen for Ontario from multiple sources including Environment Canada. Water equivalent maps don't tell snowfall and furthermore that isn't an average map, that is probably one of the snowiest instances on record. That was 3 years ago. Every year has that range between lake Level and the hills. Stebo, nobody has an average for those hills. There are no roads, no house, nothing. You might see numbers for SSM, Wawa, Sudbury and that's it. You have to use water equivalent, snow compresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That was 3 years ago. Every year has that range between lake Level and the hills. Stebo, nobody has an average for those hills. There are no roads, no house, nothing. You might see numbers for SSM, Wawa, Sudbury and that's it. So 3 years ago they had around 300" that doesn't mean every year will... you said average, they probably average 180-220" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 So 3 years ago they had around 300" that doesn't mean every year will... you said average, they probably average 180-220" of snow. They probably had more than 400 inches. That snow evaporates and does melt from time to time throughout the winter. The next year was exactly the same. I can't go back many more years, the satellite data changed sometime between 2011 and 2012. Also, there is no data for Canada before 2011 I believe. From this data source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 They probably had more than 400 inches. That snow evaporates and does melt from time to time throughout the winter. The next year was exactly the same. I can't go back many more years, the satellite data changed sometime between 2011 and 2012. Also, there is no data for Canada before 2011 I believe. From this data source. Yeah and that snow could get rained on, adding the liquid equivalent, which is why using liquid equivalent isn't the best option. Actual snowfall reports or snowfall data is the best. The direct comparison is the Tug Hill Plateau and they have a higher rise there along with a better setup compared to downwind of Lake Superior. Often the lake effect snow is focused into the UP yet for Lake Ontario it is focused into Northern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Employees of the snow train could probably settle this one. I'll send an email and repost any "usuable" info I get. http://www.snowtrain.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 So 3 years ago they had around 300" that doesn't mean every year will... you said average, they probably average 180-220" of snow. Stebo that particular area has a lot going for it. It's elevation for one. It also has the longest fetch anywhere on Superior. And... it receives snow from multiple wind directions too. It's like parts of this area... It's uninhabited for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 That area Jonger points out has several different wind directions for LES then the Tug does. From the looks of it WNW, NNW, NW, West and WSW. It also has almost 400 miles of water to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Stebo that particular area has a lot going for it. It's elevation for one. It also has the longest fetch anywhere on Superior. And... it receives snow from multiple wind directions too. It's like parts of this area... It's uninhabited for a reason. Josh would get sick of snow there! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That area Jonger points out has several different wind directions for LES then the Tug does. From the looks of it WNW, NNW, NW, West and WSW. It also has almost 400 miles of water to work with. The Tug is pretty much a one trick pony. When they get it... THEY GET IT. Often times, they aren't in the right spot. Plus, the Tug probably ends up too warm for many synoptic events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Stebo that particular area has a lotgoing for it. It's elevation for one. It also has the longest fetch anywhere on Superior. And... it receives snow from multiple wind directions too. It's like parts of this area... It's uninhabited for a reason. No I do understand that, I just think the 300" number is overblown and all the data I have seen points in that direction. Is there a chance that Jonger found the one 5 square mile area that might be close to 300" on average? Sure but that region as a whole from SSM to Wawa away from the coast and up in elevation is probably 180-220" on average which would match everything I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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