Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 This is a really long LES event. Looks like it could last 5 days and become enhanced by 2 clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 This is a really long LES event. Looks like it could last 5 days and become enhanced by 2 clippers. Winds start out really favorible for my area then turn more sw mid week which is less ideal. Either way expecting some decent totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Look at those 850s, that perfectly aligned flow, and the 2nd enhancement from the middle level wave about to come down with a reinforcement of cold air and synoptic lift. Just gorgeous stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Winds start out really favorible for my area then turn more sw mid week which is less ideal. Either way expecting some decent totals. Winds will vary from WNW to SW through the course of next week. A broad brushing should give everyone on the east side of Michigan a good dosing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Winds start out really favorible for my area then turn more sw mid week which is less ideal. Either way expecting some decent totals.A lot to digest. I'll be riding over the 15th weekend at minimum. Might lug the trailer out your way for a day ride early next week. Roads will be ugly, but gasoline is cheap.The joys of self employment. The winds are ideal for SW michigan too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 0Z GFS actually looks like it has a descent hold on the LES for once, has widespread 8 inches as far inland as Ann Arbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Even we should get in on some action here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Even we should get in on some action here. Probably look similar to this, but better for NW Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Winds will vary from WNW to SW through the course of next week. A broad brushing should give everyone on the east side of Michigan a good dosing. Where my area really shines is with a strong NW flow with a Superior connection. We can get some pretty intense snowfall for my areas which is SW of Gaylord. Some of those dominant bands that can setup produce 2-4" per hr, but never really last long enough for crazy totals like in your area downwind of Erie. Even a WNW or Westerly we do okay, having higher elevation helps out quite a bit. 12"+ is not out of the question for many areas along lake Mich even in the SW corner. Our biggest negative is the much shorter fetch, why can't Lake Mich be about 200 miles longer Also appears John D is going full weenie mode now for his area. to the surprise of none. I think over a season he paints the equivalent of 300" plus for the Keweenaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Kind of funnily the 06Z GFS had a better handle on the LES than the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Where my area really shines is with a strong NW flow with a Superior connection. We can get some pretty intense snowfall for my areas which is SW of Gaylord. Some of those dominant bands that can setup produce 2-4" per hr, but never really last long enough for crazy totals like in your area downwind of Erie. Even a WNW or Westerly we do okay, having higher elevation helps out quite a bit. 12"+ is not out of the question for many areas along lake Mich even in the SW corner. Our biggest negative is the much shorter fetch, why can't Lake Mich be about 200 miles longer Also appears John D is going full weenie mode now for his area. to the surprise of none. I think over a season he paints the equivalent of 300" plus for the Keweenaw There's a couple 2-3 spots in the Keweenaw that do average around 300". Like I said last night, he is way more conservative than he use to be. He didn't whip out the yellow Crayola too many times last year. IMO, his map looks pretty legit. A small part of the area he has colored yellow has already seen one 25" lake effect event this year. It's not that hard to do. At any rate, I'm prepared for 1-2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Kind of funnily the 06Z GFS had a better handle on the LES than the 12ZWon't be any good handling of snowfall until we get into the NAM rangeSent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 A lake effect expert on our forums put out some pretty insane totals off of Erie and Ontario. Can't say I'm not getting more excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Won't be any good handling of snowfall until we get into the NAM range Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Low res global models never fair well with LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 A lake effect expert on our forums put out some pretty insane totals off of Erie and Ontario. Can't say I'm not getting more excited. I'd be excited to ride it out there too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 A lake effect expert on our forums put out some pretty insane totals off of Erie and Ontario. Can't say I'm not getting more excited. Im coming over this time. Get the guest bedroom ready. I like eggs in the morning. Coffee with cream and sugar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Low res global models never fair well with LES. Yup... I have seen the GFS indicate .25 to .50 QPF in a spot that picked up 2 feet before. Wait till this gets in the NAM range and enjoy the purples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I gotta agree this setup screams another monster thumping for areas downwind of Erie and Ontario. One of these days I will be down there to chase that kind of LES. Should be pretty impressive given how warm the lakes still are, i'm guessing another thundersnow event. How many is that this year #2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 This will make most people up here pretty happy to see and sledders from downstate to bad I will be downstate next weekend and miss the first decent riding setup of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 This will make most people up here pretty happy to see and sledders from downstate to bad I will be downstate next weekend and miss the first decent riding setup of the year. That's probably underdone as well. Not for all areas, but Ontario along Superior, Alger county, Otsego county, Kalkaska county... will all see more than 12-18 inches. That synoptic alone should be 12 inches.That's 10:1, that's why. LES is probably closer to 30:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That's probably underdone as well. Not for all areas, but Ontario along Superior, Alger county, Otsego county, Kalkaska county... will all see more than 12-18 inches. That synoptic alone should be 12 inches. That's 10:1, that's why. LES is probably closer to 30:1. Ratios depend on a number of factors in lake effect. We've had anywhere from 1:6 to 1:30+ ratios. Last November was 1:13 on average so it was really heavy stuff. I would say LES averages ratios between 1:15 to 1:20/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Im coming over this time. Get the guest bedroom ready. I like eggs in the morning. Coffee with cream and sugar. Haha! If I were to choose a location for this it would be the Tug. I think they get quite a bit more than us in this set-up. Its still far enough out there where a lot of stuff can change and totals might not be that high. We will have a much better idea by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'd be excited to ride it out there too! Lol, no need for you to travel. You'll always get yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That's probably underdone as well. Not for all areas, but Ontario along Superior, Alger county, Otsego county, Kalkaska county... will all see more than 12-18 inches. That synoptic alone should be 12 inches. That's 10:1, that's why. LES is probably closer to 30:1. The Sunday system is still pretty close to call how much falls as snow. The LES will really depend on the 850 wind pattern and how much it veers throughout the week. I think it will be more of the share the wealth variety for a good chunk of NWL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 CMC is once again most aggressive for the Freezing Rain tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I realized I posted the Freezing Rain comment on the wrong thread. Anyways IWX mentioned a significant LES event for the whole northern CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 0Z GFS shows one of the most widespread lake effect events in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Hope ya like LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cleveland_WX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Hope ya like LES. Just moved to Cleveland. How does it usually fair during lake effect setups like these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just moved to Cleveland. How does it usually fair during lake effect setups like these? From what I've researched about CLE, you guy's tend to need very particular setups, but when they happen you get slammed. This setup could actually give you guys some not half bad LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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