dmc76 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Might as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 May the rich get richer! MQT not excited about the LE.... certainly over time, 1-2' look possible in the belts here but flake size will keep everything in check. Period advisories will handle most up this way. I think warning criteria LE is 12" in 12 hours here. Our Buffalo boy cleans up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well if it doesn't snow 8" total somewhere in MI in the next 10 days. Jonger has to swim a lap around Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well if it doesn't snow 8" total somewhere in MI in the next 10 days. Jonger has to swim a lap around Lake Superior. Jonger is safe. With this kind of cold, the rule will be long periods of grainy, low visibility snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 Jonger is safe. With this kind of cold, the rule will be long periods of grainy, low visibility snow. Oh I know. Someone north of highway 10 might see 3 feet in that 10 day stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Also, dmc, I remember when I lived in NW lower and cold like this would move in. It could snow 4-7 days straight with an inch or so every 4 or 5 hours. With deep snow in place and low visibility snow, it makes the perfect Winter feeling... especially for outdoor activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 good luck with the thread, dudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just an awesome forecast discussion. Reminds me of the December 2001 event. THE PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONGADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTHAMERICA...WITH A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWING AN IMPRESSIVELONGWAVE TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTHAMERICA. THE MEAN PATTERN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEPTROUGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY...WITH NUMEROUS HIGHAMPLITUDE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.PAST CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH AND EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN CANBE VERY ACTIVE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION...AND THISAPPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL.DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR ASTRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVELWAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVESWILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION...SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THISTIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALEPATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING...SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE ANDONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 good luck with the thread, dudes exit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 exit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I like all our chances for some decent LES, yes the 850 may be actually be a little too cold ideally but a key difference from this occurrence this time compared to the last two years is the lakes are quite a bit warmer. APX was surprisingly quiet about the potential for snow but then again 3-5" a day for several days is nothing new for the Northern LES belts. Plus it looks pretty active with clippers pulling through as well. This setup is looking really good for Western New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 She's a cutie but a pain in the ass from the looks of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Were golden now, John Dee says so............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Looking good for a historical les outbreak next weekend and again on the 14th-16th. Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-36-0-42868100-1452002335.gif 2001, blizzard of 66, 77, 85 all there. Unreal analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-36-0-42868100-1452002335.gif 2001, blizzard of 66, 77, 85 all there. Unreal analogs. I wouldn't be suprised if BUF issued LES watches by Thursday at this rate IMO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Not that often places as far inland as Hillsdale are clipped by someone's 4-8 forecast for lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo and London both get hit big. Orientation will switch late Sunday night. Both traditional snow belts are gonna get pounded. Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just an awesome forecast discussion. Reminds me of the December 2001 event. Jon Hitchcock. An awesome LES forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo and London both get hit big. Orientation will switch late Sunday night. Both traditional snow belts are gonna get pounded. Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk I suspect London (and Cleveland/NE Ohio) will be left out of the good stuff. We need WNW or NW winds and Buffalo is golden with SW winds. The current indications are a prolonged period of predominately SW winds. Would be the 3rd year in a row for them. The last couple years we have been getting the NWerlys too late in the season to do any good. Starting to get a bit irritating...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Nice nw flow Sunday night tho Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 APX is finally talking about the potential LES A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE EVENING HOURSSATURDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY DROP ENOUGH TO SWITCHTHINGS OVER TO SNOW. AFTER THAT...THE STORY WILL BE THE ACCUMULATINGLAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO REALLY KICK INTO GEAR SUNDAYMORNING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF AND THE COLDEST PORTION OF THEINCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMWILL BE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN LARGERAMOUNTS OF SNOW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...BUT THE COLD AIR MOVING INSHOULD HELP TO PUSH THIS LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL HAVESOME EFFECT ON THE LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER...AS IT INDUCES A NW FLOWTHAT WILL BACK TO WRLY AS THIS SECOND LOW LIFTS THROUGH ONTARIO ANDQUEBEC. WRLY FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH A SHIFT TOSW BY MIDWEEK. WITH A PROLONGED STRETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWSEXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AREAS IN THE FAVOREDSNOW BELTS COULD SEE SOME IMPRESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDWEEK. MODELSOUNDINGS OVER LAKE MI ARE SHOWING RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCEDCAPE...IN THE 600 - 1000+ J/KG RANGE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AOA700MB...AND SOMETIMES MUCH ABOVE...FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS IN THAT SUN - TUES PERIOD AT MANY SPOTSALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE ALSO SHOWING NICE ALIGNMENT OFOMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ...SO EXPECTING GOOD DENDRITIC PRODUCTION WHICHWILL HELP INCREASE THE ACCUMULATIONS.NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN THE AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILLDROP THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH FRI AND SAT TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TOSUPPORT MIXY PRECIP...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THETEENS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Classic setup on the 12z operational Euro and EPS next week for prolonged WSW flow LES off Erie and Ontario with piece of PV meandering across Quebec. UP and lower MI will obviously be affected as well, only limited by shorter fetch. Areas downwind of Huron should do really well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 APX is finally talking about the potential LES Awesome discussion! Kbuf issued a HWO- THE PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWING AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE MEAN PATTERN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY...WITH NUMEROUS HIGH AMPLITUDE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. PAST CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH AND EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN CAN BE VERY ACTIVE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL. DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVES WILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION... SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING... SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. And from Forecast discussion: AFTER THAT...THINGS LOOK TO GET CONSIDERABLY MORE INTERESTING EARLY ON NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE FORCES DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE/DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THE CORE OF WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS PATTERN WILL DIRECT MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN -15C AND -20C EARLY ON IN THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO REMAINING WIDE OPEN...IT SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING THAT ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATLY HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES. IN CONCERT WITH NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH AND PROVIDING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE...THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG/DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE RESULTING LAKE BANDS MIGRATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODULATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES. WHILE THE EXACT FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE POINT...THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEFINITELY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING... SIGNIFICANT...AND HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. STAY TUNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 18Z GFS is much more lenient for LES in Southern MI than the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 18Z GFS is much more lenient for LES in Southern MI than the 12Z Low res models always have a tough time with Lake effect, we need to get into High res model range to get a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Were golden now, John Dee says so............ John Dee use to be overly liberal with his paint. He's really toned it down past few seasons. One would think he could upgrade his graphics a little bit tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 John Dee use to be overly liberal with his paint. He's really toned it down past few seasons. One would think he could upgrade his graphics a little bit tho. He did paint a land bridge from the UP to NW lower Michigan, so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 John said that he might break up the yellow crayon if everything holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Low res models always have a tough time with Lake effect, we need to get into High res model range to get a better idea. Yup. IMO... anything blue more than 5 days out is BIG TIME LES. There are 2+ Inch QPF spots on the map that show 12 inches of snow. That's 3 feet of snow in the real world. Or more. Of course I'm adding up everything for areas north of the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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