TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I haven't seen any thread on it started yet. So, here goes... The GFS looks like it continues to bring the track farther south with each consecutive run. This is starting to look like a more benign version of what we had at the beginning of last week. Definitely less ice though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Good change for a little glaze of freezing rain that will make the roads slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Nothing like 40 with light rain/fog for arguably for peak season for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Nothing like 40 with light rain/fog for arguably for peak season for snowfall.I always consider about Jan 20-Feb 10 the peak of winter. It will be very disappointing if that time frame doesn't produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 will be nice to put a dent in this glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I always consider about Jan 20-Feb 10 the peak of winter. It will be very disappointing if that time frame doesn't produce. The whole month of January to me is peak season IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The whole month of January to me is peak season IMO I think our average temp is lowest around Jan 15th. But, yes... we are peak right now through Feb 1st. For areas north, like the UP... winter is pretty much the same from here till March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 will be nice to put a dent in this glacier Lol... we are very different weather weenies. And yes, you're a weather weenie. We all are on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 12Z runs seem to be taking the low farther west, with the heaviest precip. in IA,MN,IL, and WI. The NAM barely gives Lower Michigan any precip. I'd be happy with that. We don't need any rain on top of our 4 inch glacier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The 12Z suite still has a ice glaze threat, so that's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What? Where? When? Or this only in the mitten state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What? Where? When? Or this only in the mitten state? North of 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 0z EURO dug the system further. Not sure what the 12z did. Showing snow here now, which is a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Noon GFS trys to develop a wave Sat afternoon that runs north along the 540 thickness line into lower Michigan. As each run slows the advance of the main trough and sharpens its amplitude think there is a real chance we get a secondary system out of this before the cold arrives. Have not looked at the ensembles yet. Hopefully they give support to the indications of noon GFS. Need some more snow before the hammer comes down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Euro and GEM both deliver a little sliver of snowfall for the OH Valley into eastern Lakes later Sat night into Sunday. Could be enough to deliver an inch or two to some snow starved areas there. Definitely looking like a thread the needle event, so it'll be something to watch down to the last minute. At least there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think our average temp is lowest around Jan 15th. But, yes... we are peak right now through Feb 1st. For areas north, like the UP... winter is pretty much the same from here till March. Average temp is lowest (& the same) Jan 7-31.Halfway mark of met winter is Jan 15. Halfway mark of astronomical winter is Feb 2. Halfway point in the snow season statistically at DTW is Jan 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS delivers in NE IL with 2nd wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If this trend of further south continues, we will all get a not well forseen snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If this trend of further south continues, we will all get a not well forseen snow event. This one was over central Michigan earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS delivers in NE IL with 2nd wave! There's the positive trend I was mentioning on the post I made on the other thread Since it's a narrow window, overall setup seems to be supportive of a compact precip shield and airmass starts out marginal, need the interaction between the northern stream trough and southern stream wave to play out close to that GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 There's the positive trend I was mentioning on the post I made on the other thread Since it's a narrow window, overall setup seems to be supportive of a compact precip shield and airmass starts out marginal, need the interaction between the northern stream trough and southern stream wave to play out close to that GFS run. Wouldn't call it a trend. GFS has been all over the place with this second wave and now is the farthest west. Euro,UK and GGEM have all been taking this through the south and inland up the coast. We'll see what those show us in a little bit but for now best to take that GFS with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wouldn't call it a trend. GFS has been all over the place with this second wave and now is the farthest west. Euro,UK and GGEM have all been taking this through the south and inland up the coast. We'll see what those show us in a little bit but for now best to take that GFS with a grain of salt.Haha yep, was being a bit facetious there. The 12z Euro definitely trended east along with many of the individual EPS ensemble members, so still a ways to go. With such a thread the needle setup, easier for things to go wrong than right. Was at least good to have one of the 00z operational runs as an example of what could happen if the upper level features come together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 0z UK looks like it goes right over me or close by. 0z GGEM more of an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 0z UK looks like it goes right over me or close by. 0z GGEM more of an apps runner. ggem: 1003 low over central AL to 988 over central PA. If someone asked me to draw my weenie snowstorm track, that would pretty much be it and yet in this miserable manure box of a winter, it's rain. On another note, the ggem looks quite a bit less impressed with the 'plunge' after this weekend. That might be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 0z UK looks like it goes right over me or close by. 0z Euro similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Kinda confused...was this thread meant for just the first wave on Friday or also Saturday/Sunday? If it's the latter, then thread date should be extended into the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Kinda confused...was this thread meant for just the first wave on Friday or also Saturday/Sunday? If it's the latter, then thread date should be extended into the 10th. Ricky (RC) liked the idea of waiting 24 hours to see if the model hung onto this second wave making an impact in the subforum. Then start a separate thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Kinda confused...was this thread meant for just the first wave on Friday or also Saturday/Sunday? If it's the latter, then thread date should be extended into the 10th. Not sure. I posted earlier on in this thread about the Saturday night into Sunday threat for some light snow in the OH valley with the secondary wave. I guess maybe the first and second waves should have their own threads, although both look pretty wimpy relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I'm thinking that it was for the first wave, but we might as well use it for both the first wave and the second /frontal passage. IWX has been beating the zr drum for a few days now with the first system tomorrow night. Looks to change to all rain early Thursday morning though. Something to watch for Northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS now rain with wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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