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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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Matthew East @eastwx 2h2 hours ago

(1/2) Impressive run of Canadian ensembles (which have had a great winter) last night. Showing lots of Lower 48 cold coming in February.

Matthew East @eastwx 2h2 hours ago

(2/2) From late week next week, most of Lower 48 cold through at least mid-month. Impressive. My ideas remain same.

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The 0z eps was colder than the 12z. It looks like the coldest 10 day period of the winter might be on the way. Hopefully we can time a wave or two with it.

I was noticing this.  Would be nice for the attack on the strat to continue moving forward.  Perhaps we can realize a nice 10 day period as shown on the EPS (wouldn't take much to find snow if it's right) then a very brief relax and a the hope the strat can provide us a nice back half of February into early March.  All in all, I am encouraged this morning for areas in the TN Valley and North Carolina too.

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Storms fury is a legend on the boards, hes been around for a while.Hope you have a speedy recovery my man.

Goofy says we barbecue this weekend and shovel snow next weekend. Big cold is coming. As othhers have stated coldest stretch of winter is in front of us and that's saying alot cause we had 4 days 32 or below last week. Anyway let the good times roll next weekend we are going to be watching the panthers in the super bowl and highly likely chasing a snow threat.

Mack will be changing his name before valentine's day. Mark it down.

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Everyone must have jumped off the cliff already because its going to be warm for a few days. Things look good the second week of February and it is dead in here.

Theyll all come rolling in when they here us fire up the bus for the next threat: Might have to start it up by early next week as we could be within 5 days:

 

old-tour-bus.jpg

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Starting to come around to the idea of tail end development around 2/6, potentially clipping the SE coast. That is a stout long wave trough and it would not take much to draw a surface reflection closer to the coast than presently shown.

12z GEFS mean suggests that the members will be interesting to check for both 2/5-2/6 and 2/9-2/10

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12z GEFS mean suggests that the members will be interesting to check for both 2/5-2/6 and 2/9-2/10

Strongly agree.  Looks cold from 144 through 300 (and beyond) and cold AND unsettled from 216 through 300.  (and beyond)  It also holds the ridging firm along the west coast (nice -EPO) well past the time when the GFS op breaks it down.  All in all, it's a GREAT look.

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Can a split like that help to lock in the trough and cold pattern in the east?  I would think that once it splits, it wouldn't be fast to move out???

The trough is already looking to lock in in the LR on the climate models, so without even seeing hints towards a SSWE, I would say yes anyway. But a SSWE definitely does just that. I made a post on SSWE occurrence and strong El Ninos, probably multiple posts on them, in December. Many say the downstream effects aren't seen until much later, but in my research I often see cold pretty soon (ie. days)

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The trough is already looking to lock in in the LR on the climate models, so without even seeing hints towards a SSWE, I would say yes anyway. But a SSWE definitely does just that. I made a post on SSWE occurrence and strong El Ninos, probably multiple posts on them, in December. Many say the downstream effects aren't seen until much later, but in my research I often see cold pretty soon (ie. days)

 

That makes perfect sense.  Thanks Jon!

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12z Euro Ens - some mild support for the SE coastal redevelopment system behind the cutter on Feb 5-6.  Big closed ridge off the Cali coast at day 10, then moist SW flow into a fairly cold airmass over the southeast for Feb 9.  An interesting look no doubt if we can keep it cold enough.

The look given should spark excitement for the I-40 north crowd.  Harder further south of course, but certainly not impossible.

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