Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Actually, when you're dealing with code red from a commercial defense perspective, you hope the "light was green" so to metaphorically speak! Thanks for the update!!!! Haha I hear ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I posted something similar in the MA forum earlier. I think the bigger story than quick threat windows after the lakes cutter is still the ao/nao. EPS was money for long leads. Every 12 hours the oranges are getting redder in the high latitudes. Yes, the pna/epo combo looks nice on the means but that's a volatile and not an easy storm setup for south of 40N. Imo- what we are seeing could be the backside of a 45-60 day -AO period coming into focus. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I don't think anyone said anything about a winter storm next weekend. People are saying the pattern is starting to look good again the second week of February. some mets. are talking there is a strong signal for a snowstorm next weekend, Super Bowl weekend Sat. thru Monday in the southeast, storm is digging more than the last one we just had and there looks to be more cold air in the southeast this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 00z CMC has a wintry system in OK, AR, W TN, N MS, N AL on day 9-10. Looks on the light side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 00z CMC has a wintry system in OK, AR, W TN, N MS, N AL on day 9-10. Looks on the light sideeuro ensembles a little more bullish on this just looking at the 500mb mean. What a nice pattern setting up for us after the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 GEFS, GEPS, and EPS all still look good in the LR. The CPC index charts show the NAO hovering slightly positive with the PNA bouncing between 0 and +1, while the AO goes from + to 0 with some members thereafter returning positive, while others showing a decline into negative territory. The Ops this morning look pretty bad, but run to run changes are to be expected (although the Euro looks ok...it actually shows a nice -NAO at 240). The CFS still isn't where we want it for Feb, though it's better than a few days ago, and FWIW, the MJO meanders around in phase 3/4 at a low amplitude and into the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Day 10 GFS features ridging over the pole, a tall PNA ridge, a cold vortex over Hudson Bay and a weak southern stream system--plenty of potential here, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 GEFS, GEPS, and EPS all still look good in the LR. The CPC index charts show the NAO hovering slightly positive with the PNA bouncing between 0 and +1, while the AO goes from + to 0 with some members thereafter returning positive, while others showing a decline into negative territory. The Ops this morning look pretty bad, but run to run changes are to be expected (although the Euro looks ok...it actually shows a nice -NAO at 240). The CFS still isn't where we want it for Feb, though it's better than a few days ago, and FWIW, the MJO meanders around in phase 3/4 at a low amplitude and into the COD. I think we're going to see the AO start showing more and more negative members in the next few days(it's already trending that way). Not sure if the NAO will get better, but if we can get the PNA and AO on our side there should be potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Day 10 GFS features ridging over the pole, a tall PNA ridge, a cold vortex over Hudson Bay and a weak southern stream system--plenty of potential here, I believe. Normally not a big fan of the Hudson Bay vortex since it tends to lead to cold-warm-rain-cold OR squash with NW flow....but it's a starting point, and it's probably better in a strong nino since we'd have more ability than normal to get the California to Dixie storm connection going. Looking at the 12z GFS & CMC Op and Ens, both support a south to east coast system after the cutter with critical freezing temps roughly across N AR / TN / NC....It's a decent look at this point, obviously would like to see it farther south and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Lots of signals for some fun the second week of February. Be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Lots of signals for some fun the second week of February. Be prepared.what signals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 what signals? The pattern, the models, the indicies. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The pattern, the models, the indicies. Looks good. Go on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Thing we are in 60s Sunday-Wednesday. Cool down late week/weekend. Then perhaps fun pattern Feb 7/8th and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Thing we are in 60s Sunday-Wednesday. Cool down late week/weekend. Then perhaps fun pattern Feb 7/8th and on. Hey, that's Miller A's job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Hey, that's Miller A's job! I thought it was Brick's. Well, I do it too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 This might be fun after D10....the D9-10 has to be watched as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wes sums up the post cutter pattern well here... Bob, I think our hopes would lie in having one wave go by and then another having better timing than forecast by the Canadian or the Euro. Either the northern stream speeds up and pulls in cold air and we get a more sheared out southern stream system or we have something like the Euro is showing with another strong shortwave dropping down behind the first system. For getting some snow, it's not a horrid pattern. For getting a big storm it needs some work. 12z Euro Ensemble is below normal with temps in the SE each day from day 7 to 15...with an amplified pattern of Aleutian Low, full W North America ridge (and into the arctic), and eastern U.S. trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Eps puts the east in an icebox post cutter. Nice epo dump to bring what would be the coldest air of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Is there a sign of split flow, STJ on the ensembles? Worried the pna epo combo leaves us cold and dry. Probably too early to tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Is there a sign of split flow, STJ on the ensembles? Worried the pna epo combo leaves us cold and dry. Probably too early to tell though. Not at 500mb, but it does have the actual STJ at 200mb running across Baja and into the N Gulf. Yeah, it's not the perfect setup, but a cold eastern trough + strong El Nino might yield a chance or two if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Anxiously awaiting Bricks analysis of the 18z GFS I think most would like the look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Not at 500mb, but it does have the actual STJ at 200mb running across Baja and into the N Gulf. Yeah, it's not the perfect setup, but a cold eastern trough + strong El Nino might yield a chance or two if it comes to fruition. Thanks Grit. Yeah with this historic Nino, you would think if we can just sustain the cold, it would only be a matter of time. Looks like ingredient number one may only be a week or so away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Anxiously awaiting Bricks analysis of the 18z GFS I think most would like the look! You'll be waiting awhile. Nobody else has commented on it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 You'll be waiting awhile. Nobody else has commented on it yet. Yep. If Brick forgets to calibrate the transitory particle interceptor, he could wind up with an unwelcome subharmonic oscillation. No one wants that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don't worry Brick I've got your back...18Z was a hot mess of nothing. We will move forward with our daily hopefulness of one frame of one off run to build February momentum when in all actuality we have no clue beyond 5 days. However, just like you Brick, I will wait anxiously for that one fantasy land clown map and suddenly become the top rated meteorologist in the southeast and subject everyone to my weenie interpretation. ill tell you this..like a squirrel to its nut, now and then, a weenie finds its bun. Forecast on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Maybe if the cold blast is not as great after the the cutter, we could have a little better chance at scoring something without supression. The cold has rarely ended up as cold as modeled from 5-7 days out, for most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Maybe if the cold blast is not as great after the the cutter, we could have a little better chance at scoring something without supression. The cold has rarely ended up as cold as modeled from 5-7 days out, for most of the winter. I agree. We've had some decent cold in January, but nothing too exciting. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The Euro Weeklies are pretty dang good, we may be looking at a Feb much like last year as far as cold is concerned. Trough featured in the east throughout entire run but mainly what has caught everyone's eye is week 4. Notice the pacific trough location under or west of the Aleutians - good for ridge out west and east coast trough. The 5 and 7 day means have this location throughout run. It will be cold, at least, stormy TBD. Those who thought Feb may be average are in trouble. Via Todd Crawford on Twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 CFSv2 trending colder for the SE. I expect to see a colder look east in the final runs of the model for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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