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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


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You said in a post yesterday the first two weeks of Feb were warm and winter cancel!? That's a pretty cold look on Feb 8th, nice 1051 high in the plains , hope that look holds, just to get the cold here!

IMO cold is guaranteed by 2/10 as I mentioned in my post earlier, pretty good consensus of all global models and ensembles. We will see wild 1040-1050mb+ highs dropping down on the OPs in this range, centered over the midwest like above and drifting east. The anomalies are pretty strong for it being 14 days out and for the fact of climo it's early February. 

 

CIPS based on the GEFS also sees this trend (centered 2/9)

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^ Nice, Bob.  Thanks for stopping by.  This should certainly help keep things rolling into March.  FWIW, Cosgrove thinks Feb and March will be quite wintry in the east.  As long as we keep the active STJ, we'll be in good shape, because I do believe we'll have frequent cold shots/sustained cold periods.  The ENS suites are still in good agreement on general ridging west/trouging east after the cutter.  The CPC indecies don't look all that impressive, but I think they'll catch up.  The MJO heading into phase 4 isn't the best look, but it's low amplitude, and it may not matter all that much in the end.

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CR, I'm not sure how much phase 4 really means in JFM. Especially during a Nino. Wes in our subforum posted a while back that the MJO doesn't have as much influence in the east during Nino's. Also, the temperature significance plots during JFM are quite low in phase 4. 

 

I sometimes wonder if the MJO gets too much air time but I'll defer to those who know a heck of a lot more than I do on the subject. 

 

And I also agree about the numerical indices. Ens runs keep ticking lower with the AO. I have a strong hunch we are moving into a good -AO period but the NAO remains a wildcard. We'll know more in a week but I'm pretty much expecting a -AO to develop and hang in there for a while. 

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CR, JB talked about the MJO phase 4 today but said the SSWE would overcome that with cold air in the US. 

 

 

CR, I'm not sure how much phase 4 really means in JFM. Especially during a Nino. Wes in our subforum posted a while back that the MJO doesn't have as much influence in the east during Nino's. Also, the temperature significance plots during JFM are quite low in phase 4. 

 

I sometimes wonder if the MJO gets too much air time but I'll defer to those who know a heck of a lot more that I do on the subject. 

 

And I also agree about the numerical indices. Ens runs keep ticking lower with the AO. I have a strong hunch we are moving into a good -AO period but the NAO remains a wildcard. We'll know more in a week but I'm pretty much expecting a -AO to develop and hang in there for a while.

 

Good to know about the MJO...thanks guys.

 

Agree on all points about the AO, Bob.  Also, you can see the models hinting at a -NAO in the longer range.  While the LR is not necessarily going to be modeled correctly, I feel like it's good to at least see hints of what we are looking for.  Regardless, it certainly beats what we were seeing being modeled during the months of Nov/Dec!  Additionally, I've been watching the CFS over the last few days with its Feb forecast.  Even though it's still not where we'd like it to be, it is trending cooler, which is what we want to see here at the end of Jan.

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DT just made a post on FB noting atmosphere similarities between FEB 6 and the days before this last big storm. Worth a quick look at it.

Yep, the next Pacific wave after the big cutter is a period of interest for those who aren't squeamish about looking ahead, lol.  CMC has similar look to Euro...GFS is more northern stream dominant post cutter.

 

DT's post: https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/976789359034989/?type=3&theater

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DT just made a post on FB noting atmosphere similarities between FEB 6 and the days before this last big storm. Worth a quick look at it.

 

Well if it ends up like the "winter storm" I just had I don't want it. Freezing rain and power outages are not fun. Need those 850s colder for the next storm or it might as well cut and rain.

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Why are we posting a 330hr Individual Member is the main disco thread, does the extended really look that bleak?

Focus on the ens means in the extended range, day 7 and beyond, they should tell us where the windows are at. The first I see is around 2/6, maybe some tail end development action.

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Unfortunately the lawyer part of me is doing the courthouse civil defense thing and no time to look at links and maps this week. Quick gander shows nothing to anticipate, but maybe I'm missing something. Any juicy maps worth looking at?

 

Thanks and I'll check back in as witness prep allows tonight.

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Unfortunately the lawyer part of me is doing the courthouse civil defense thing and no time to look at links and maps this week. Quick gander shows nothing to anticipate, but maybe I'm missing something. Any juicy maps worth looking at?

Thanks and I'll check back in as witness prep allows tonight.

If you don't think you can get him to admit he gave the order for the code red, don't go for it man. It's too risky!

As far as the weather goes, it looks mild for a few days, but the jury is still out as to how warm it gets. Franklin likes the 330hr EPS control. It's a long way out there, but in his defense, it is pretty, from what I hear (I don't have access but may sign up for a trial). We might witness some severe weather in the SE next week, but the verdict isn't in on that yet. Jon posted the CIPS, which shows a cool-down beginning next week. Don't know much about the CIPS, so you can judge that for yourself. If you liked the GEFS better, which shows a -AO returning, I don't think anyone would object. Some may doubt we get cold again, but Grit and Bob preemptively overruled that concern, just in case. Meanwhile, Brick is going to keep us posted on how his week is unfolding, so the ball is in his court with that. There's looks to be a great pattern setting up after we get an innocent little cutter next week, but sometimes I'm guilty of being a little too optimistic.

Anyway, hope that helps. Good luck with the prep!

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Yep, the next Pacific wave after the big cutter is a period of interest for those who aren't squeamish about looking ahead, lol.  CMC has similar look to Euro...GFS is more northern stream dominant post cutter.

 

DT's post: https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/976789359034989/?type=3&theater

All fantasy at this point but if that were to verify I think there would be a lot of happy people on the board. It shows a lower STJ Ridge in California allowing S/W "B" to dig a little farther south in Texas. Then it tracks farther South than this last storm - almost Miller A ish. Also looks like a little more dip of cold into the SE. Only chink might be the low pressure over Canada, but that is pretty far up there. It won't verify like that of course, but it is a pretty good look. Next ten days are going to be hard to take in the heart of winter - let's get this boring weather behind us! :snowing:  

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If you don't think you can get him to admit he gave the order for the code red, don't go for it man. It's too risky!

As far as the weather goes, it looks mild for a few days, but the jury is still out as to how warm it gets. Franklin likes the 330hr EPS control. It's a long way out there, but in his defense, it is pretty, from what I hear (I don't have access but may sign up for a trial). We might witness some severe weather in the SE next week, but the verdict isn't in on that yet. Jon posted the CIPS, which shows a cool-down beginning next week. Don't know much about the CIPS, so you can judge that for yourself. If you liked the GEFS better, which shows a -AO returning, I don't think anyone would object. Some may doubt we get cold again, but Grit and Bob preemptively overruled that concern, just in case. Meanwhile, Brick is going to keep us posted on how his week is unfolding, so the ball is in his court with that. There's looks to be a great pattern setting up after we get an innocent little cutter next week, but sometimes I'm guilty of being a little too optimistic.

Anyway, hope that helps. Good luck with the prep!

Brick, is that you!? :)

Next weekend looks like coldrainstr8cashmoneyhomey!

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If you don't think you can get him to admit he gave the order for the code red, don't go for it man. It's too risky!

As far as the weather goes, it looks mild for a few days, but the jury is still out as to how warm it gets. Franklin likes the 330hr EPS control. It's a long way out there, but in his defense, it is pretty, from what I hear (I don't have access but may sign up for a trial). We might witness some severe weather in the SE next week, but the verdict isn't in on that yet. Jon posted the CIPS, which shows a cool-down beginning next week. Don't know much about the CIPS, so you can judge that for yourself. If you liked the GEFS better, which shows a -AO returning, I don't think anyone would object. Some may doubt we get cold again, but Grit and Bob preemptively overruled that concern, just in case. Meanwhile, Brick is going to keep us posted on how his week is unfolding, so the ball is in his court with that. There's looks to be a great pattern setting up after we get an innocent little cutter next week, but sometimes I'm guilty of being a little too optimistic.

Anyway, hope that helps. Good luck with the prep!

Actually, when you're dealing with code red from a commercial defense perspective, you hope the "light was green" so to metaphorically speak!

 

Thanks for the update!!!!

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