January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[PackGrad05]

the latest WPC Probabilistic Guidance suggests a 5-15% chance of greater than 1 inch snow or greater than .1" fzra for wake county this week.  

 

I know it is small...but the chance of a trace is probably higher than that.

[griteater]

The AO went thru a perfect flip from positive to negative right at the turn of the new year...

 

 

 

3 reasons why I think we will see a return to solid negative AO blocking in February:

 

1. The blocking episode in January was quite strong.  Such an episode tends to somewhat repeat itself later in winter.

2. Historically, a -AO is favored during February in El Ninos

3. The wave activity flux is forecast to be quite strong over the next 2 weeks, thereby significantly weakening the stratospheric polar vortex.  This would also assist in a trend toward a -AO.

 

[Heisy]

After the cutter the GFS has a massive +PNA pattern that almost extends to NAO territory. Would be a great pattern for SE IMO...just need to get through the next 7-8 days then winter return 

[Jon]

After the cutter the GFS has a massive +PNA pattern that almost extends to NAO territory. Would be a great pattern for SE IMO...just need to get through the next 7-8 days then winter return

Yeah 00z GEFS says winter returns 2nd week of February. Nice +PNA and possible blocking showing up 2/10+. EPS agrees with this as well.

[FallsLake]

The indices today look about the same as yesterdays except the PNA is now forecasted to be slightly more positive in the LR (but still lower than current values). The NAO looks to drop towards neutral before heading back positive. The AO looks to drop towards neutral or slight positive.

 

So the LR would have +PNA, +NAO, and maybe neutral AO.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[WeatherNC]

Agree with what others have said, we are probably looking at the period beyond 2/7 for our next chance. Some of the GFS mems look pretty good in fantasy range. MJO is currently in the circle of death, if we see strong enough push back into phase 6 or 7 I think it will be game on for something in the middle of February.

[DixieBlizzard]

The indices today look about the same as yesterdays except the PNA is now forecasted to be slightly more positive in the LR (but still lower than current values). The NAO looks to drop towards neutral before heading back positive. The AO looks to drop towards neutral or slight positive.

 

So the LR would have +PNA, +NAO, and maybe neutral AO.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

Aside from the PNA, that really doesn't "sound" ideal but I suppose this pattern can still produce. Would at least like to see the AO go more Neg.

[Cold Rain]

To go along with the above posts, the different ensemble suites are in remarkably good agreement at D10, and even after that, through the ends of their respective runs (although I can't see the EPS after D10).  All agree on a big cutter around 192hrs and then they set up a big PNA ridge that connects with an EPO block, promoting cross-polar flow.

 

At D10, it looks like we also have a -NAO/-AO as well.  Will there be any precipitation?  Who knows, but this is a great pattern for flooding Canada with cold and then allowing that to spill into the eastern US.  The ridge-west/trough-east look remains through D15 on both the GEFS and GEPS.

 

Here are the D10 images below of all 3 ensemble means:

 

GEFS:

 

 

GEPS:

 

 

EPS:

 

[Bob Chill]

Keep an eye on the potential for a wave to run the boundary after the cutter moves through. There is some ensemble support for an minor event on the heels of the cold front. We need to root for the eastern trough to dig for oil when the front clears. This is most likely the next chance at any winter precip for both our areas. 

 

Just for reference, the 6z para gfs shows this potential. There is a handful of euro members doing the same thing.

 

 

 

 

 

Down the line looks ok for you guys as long at the +PNA axis sets up in a good spot. Feb is definitely climo favored for deep troughs in the east. 

[NWNC2015]

I strongly disagree with most of everyone. I don't think winter will return that fast we saw how slow it was to see our first major event and better pushes of cold air. I won't rule out some cooler air but I think last week of February or March may be a better time frame for winter to fight back some. 

[tnweathernut]

I strongly disagree with most of everyone. I don't think winter will return that fast we saw how slow it was to see our first major event and better pushes of cold air. I won't rule out some cooler air but I think last week of February or March may be a better time frame for winter to fight back some. 

Just my two cents, but we aren't trying to totally flip a bad pattern like we were coming out of December.  What we may be doing is simply resetting a mostly cold pattern which would likely be much easier.  In fact, I won't be surprised if the modeling isn't colder quicker following our cutter next week.  JMO

[Stormcatt]

Just my two cents, but we aren't trying to totally flip a bad pattern like we were coming out of December. What we may be doing is simply resetting a mostly cold pattern which would likely be much easier. In fact, I won't be surprised if the modeling isn't colder quicker following our cutter next week. JMO

I agree with everything you said . This isn't a true pattern flip . And to bobs point there is some ensemble support for wave on the front after it passed through next week

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[franklin NCwx]

Just my two cents, but we aren't trying to totally flip a bad pattern like we were coming out of December. What we may be doing is simply resetting a mostly cold pattern which would likely be much easier. In fact, I won't be surprised if the modeling isn't colder quicker following our cutter next week. JMO

you're correct cold comes back after the cutter. The epo ridge forms before day ten and the north pacific low reforms to pump the PNA ridge back up. AO goes slightly negative too.

[griteater]

Euro looks pretty good after the cutter.  Follow-up Pac wave hits the west coast and should run into a pattern out ahead favoring suppression....support shown on the ensembles as well

[Jon]

Keep an eye on the potential for a wave to run the boundary after the cutter moves through. There is some ensemble support for an minor event on the heels of the cold front. We need to root for the eastern trough to dig for oil when the front clears. This is most likely the next chance at any winter precip for both our areas. 

 

Just for reference, the 6z para gfs shows this potential. There is a handful of euro members doing the same thing.

 

Down the line looks ok for you guys as long at the +PNA axis sets up in a good spot. Feb is definitely climo favored for deep troughs in the east. 

Agree. I'm watching the 2/10ish period for the possibility of a deep trough depending on how strong and tall the +PNA gets, we could end up getting some deep SE cold.

 

I strongly disagree with most of everyone. I don't think winter will return that fast we saw how slow it was to see our first major event and better pushes of cold air. I won't rule out some cooler air but I think last week of February or March may be a better time frame for winter to fight back some. 

As others have pointed out I think this is more of a relax and reload type pattern, we won't be seeing a full blown torch so we should get seasonal and below seasonal relatively quickly for climo-favored cold in February and storm chances. Every ensemble agrees like Cold Rain pointed out, we are pretty much set on seeing a trough set up on the east after the trough out west essentially retrogrades east. 

 

To go along with the above posts, the different ensemble suites are in remarkably good agreement at D10, and even after that, through the ends of their respective runs (although I can't see the EPS after D10).  All agree on a big cutter around 192hrs and then they set up a big PNA ridge that connects with an EPO block, promoting cross-polar flow.

 

At D10, it looks like we also have a -NAO/-AO as well.  Will there be any precipitation?  Who knows, but this is a great pattern for flooding Canada with cold and then allowing that to spill into the eastern US.  The ridge-west/trough-east look remains through D15 on both the GEFS and GEPS.

 

Here are the D10 images below of all 3 ensemble means:

Agree. Seeing ensemble means such as these this far out is indicative of a large and deep trough over the east coast and incredibly important for the SE. I expect these troughs to get deeper and temperatures to get colder as we get closer. I feel good about the last 3/4ths of February and don't expect any kind of sustained warmth through the SE, especially in a super Nino. Anyone thinking Feb is going to bust should remember climo says otherwise, not to mention the MA and NE just had a historic snowstorm. We'll be fine.

[burrel2]

I agree, the pattern beyond next week's cutter looks great for the southeast.  Looks like all the models agree on a ridge out west and a block of some sort retrograding over the pole.  I'm pretty pumped about the prospects to be honest.  We just have to wait out the next 8 days of garbage and we'll back in the game.

 

Edit: It also looks like the "cutter" next week could lay down a nice snow pack across the northern tier. Hopefully that will help sustain cold air coming from Canada.

[griteater]

Euro Ens looks good after the cutter.  Could be a storm chance with a Pac wave after the cutter

[Scooter]

I seem to remember a discussion on here about the Pac jet moving further south as we get into February which would help systems coming into the US at a more favorable latitude for the southeast. Would this also help with a ridge to get more cold air too? If I'm mistaken please correct some/all of it!

[Tacoma]

wish this rain starting to come in were snow, just can't get enough of a good snow.  Where is the cold air when you need it? 

[Hvward]

wish this rain starting to come in were snow, just can't get enough of a good snow. Where is the cold air when you need it?

My road is still an inch thick sheet of ice. I'd like to have at least have a week or so where I can pull into my driveway without Vin Diesel maneuvers ha. If you miss snow just look outside your window. I still have a foot on my deck.

[NWNC2015]

Here are my thoughts. Damaging snow and any wall to wall cold that was forecasted by mets months ago was never going to happen for the back half of winter. Look for sharp rebound periods instead due to the wetness and no lock of cold air.

 

We SCORED during the rebound period this month ( warm near Christmas to cold to warm) with one hell of storm. I kind of see the same thing with the possibility to score big one more time but not until the 3rd week of February or later if at all. This will likely be it for anything major widespread outside of the mountains (GA/SC) but maybe not for the NC piedmont.

 

We also have to see the cold air OCCUR not just be MODELED to actually have a rebound period for winter weather for areas that suck at winter weather typically. A rebound is not going from mid-upper 60s to upper 40s (Raleigh)....which is what I see for the first two weeks of February. Any winter weather then will likely be focused west to the Mountains if that ends up being the rule and cold rain elsewhere.

 

Look at our recent storm for clues...you want to see a good three days of highs in the 30s leading up to a milder/seasonal period. It looks like we will nail the warmth before the cold for sure so don't have to worry about that part to get a strong storm signal in February. 

 

I'm not going to be a complete weenie and say March will be marvelous. It is not off the table we don't see much WARMTH at all and it remains with little to no rebound periods to watch out for and ends up below normal temps and rainy for most. Let's get through February first because it is bound to change anyway.

[weathertree4u]

Here are my thoughts. Damaging snow and any wall to wall cold that was forecasted by mets months ago was never going to happen for the back half of winter. Look for sharp rebound periods instead due to the wetness and no lock of cold air.

We SCORED during the rebound period this month ( warm near Christmas to cold to warm) with one hell of storm. I kind of see the same thing with the possibility to score big one more time but not until the 3rd week of February or later if at all. This will likely be it for anything major widespread outside of the mountains (GA/SC) but maybe not for the NC piedmont.

We also have to see the cold air OCCUR not just be MODELED to actually have a rebound period for winter weather for areas that suck at winter weather typically. A rebound is not going from mid-upper 60s to upper 40s (Raleigh)....which is what I see for the first two weeks of February. Any winter weather then will likely be focused west to the Mountains if that ends up being the rule and cold rain elsewhere.

Look at our recent storm for clues...you want to see a good three days of highs in the 30s leading up to a milder/seasonal period. It looks like we will nail the warmth before the cold for sure so don't have to worry about that part to get a strong storm signal in February.

I'm not going to be a complete weenie and say March will be marvelous. It is not off the table we don't see much WARMTH at all and it remains with little to no rebound periods to watch out for and ends up below normal temps and rainy for most. Let's get through February first because it is bound to change anyway.

Don't sugar coat it, tell us how you really feel, geez!

[mackerel_sky]

Here are my thoughts. Damaging snow and any wall to wall cold that was forecasted by mets months ago was never going to happen for the back half of winter. Look for sharp rebound periods instead due to the wetness and no lock of cold air.

We SCORED during the rebound period this month ( warm near Christmas to cold to warm) with one hell of storm. I kind of see the same thing with the possibility to score big one more time but not until the 3rd week of February or later if at all. This will likely be it for anything major widespread outside of the mountains (GA/SC) but maybe not for the NC piedmont.

We also have to see the cold air OCCUR not just be MODELED to actually have a rebound period for winter weather for areas that suck at winter weather typically. A rebound is not going from mid-upper 60s to upper 40s (Raleigh)....which is what I see for the first two weeks of February. Any winter weather then will likely be focused west to the Mountains if that ends up being the rule and cold rain elsewhere.

Look at our recent storm for clues...you want to see a good three days of highs in the 30s leading up to a milder/seasonal period. It looks like we will nail the warmth before the cold for sure so don't have to worry about that part to get a strong storm signal in February.

I'm not going to be a complete weenie and say March will be marvelous. It is not off the table we don't see much WARMTH at all and it remains with little to no rebound periods to watch out for and ends up below normal temps and rainy for most. Let's get through February first because it is bound to change anyway.

Must be Opposite Day !

[Jonathan]

And not a single bit of science was used on that day...

[burgertime]

And not a single bit of science were used on that day...

 

 

   

 

I always kind of figured it would be like 09/10 for MBY, so far it has lived up to that just generally a little milder. That being said after next week the pattern looks ripe. 

[Jonathan]

I always kind of figured it would be like 09/10 for MBY, so far it has lived up to that just generally a little milder. That being said after next week the pattern looks ripe.

We're bound to score in FEB. Not only climo, but we've cashed out the past two or three winters in FEB. Plus, we should have some strat help very soon.

[TiltedStorm]

Here are my thoughts. Damaging snow and any wall to wall cold that was forecasted by mets months ago was never going to happen for the back half of winter. Look for sharp rebound periods instead due to the wetness and no lock of cold air.

We SCORED during the rebound period this month ( warm near Christmas to cold to warm) with one hell of storm. I kind of see the same thing with the possibility to score big one more time but not until the 3rd week of February or later if at all. This will likely be it for anything major widespread outside of the mountains (GA/SC) but maybe not for the NC piedmont.

We also have to see the cold air OCCUR not just be MODELED to actually have a rebound period for winter weather for areas that suck at winter weather typically. A rebound is not going from mid-upper 60s to upper 40s (Raleigh)....which is what I see for the first two weeks of February. Any winter weather then will likely be focused west to the Mountains if that ends up being the rule and cold rain elsewhere.

Look at our recent storm for clues...you want to see a good three days of highs in the 30s leading up to a milder/seasonal period. It looks like we will nail the warmth before the cold for sure so don't have to worry about that part to get a strong storm signal in February.

I'm not going to be a complete weenie and say March will be marvelous. It is not off the table we don't see much WARMTH at all and it remains with little to no rebound periods to watch out for and ends up below normal temps and rainy for most. Let's get through February first because it is bound to change anyway.

What? Science not applied here? What?

[NWNC2015]

I like seeing the cold. 

 

[mackerel_sky]

I like seeing the cold.

You said in a post yesterday the first two weeks of Feb were warm and winter cancel!? That's a pretty cold look on Feb 8th, nice 1051 high in the plains , hope that look holds, just to get the cold here!

[Brick Tamland]

Matthew East said in his video this morning we should flip back to a colder pattern next week. Time to reload.