FallsLake Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 0z euro was real close: Heres 6z Nam. see what happens at 12 z: one frame of euro 0z almost matches 6z nam TW 6z NAM simulated radar at hour 84 (temps would be in low to mid 30s for most): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160125+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 12z coming out now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Do not look at the CFS for Feb. Horrendous. Thankfully, it will probably be wrong. Don't have time for a full post, but the indexes look bad for a week or so, with the AO and NAO heading positive before falling to neutral again. The PNA looks to remain barely positive and the MJO looks to be incoherent with an eventual emergence into Phase 4. The Operational models show a warm up in the medium term, but don't look too bad later on, with blocking building in the EPO region. No sign of a -NAO, though, and I haven't looked at the ensembles, yet. Overall, I expect Feb into March to be a pretty good period, with several events to track, after we escape the first week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 6z NAM simulated radar at hour 84 (temps would be in low to mid 30s for most): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160125+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 12z coming out now... Snowing in CAE and CHS on the last frame!! I'm all in! Are the 850s cold, so we can maybe get snow with 35-38 degree 2 m temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Per JB tweet----First week of Feb will turn very cold west, warmer east, but cold will resume east most of Feb into March in our opinion Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Oh I agree 100%. But what's winter in the south without a little wishful thinking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep. The positively tilted s/w over mexico and the northern stream stuck up at Canada, I'm not sure how a phase would even get modeled, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Way too positively tilted. Looks like it wouldn't go negative until too late to pop a low anywhere but off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hopefully some flurries, this will likely be our last chance at wintry until around Valentines Day, as pattern reloads/ reshuffles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Do not look at the CFS for Feb. Horrendous. Thankfully, it will probably be wrong. Don't have time for a full post, but the indexes look bad for a week or so, with the AO and NAO heading positive before falling to neutral again. The PNA looks to remain barely positive and the MJO looks to be incoherent with an eventual emergence into Phase 4. The Operational models show a warm up in the medium term, but don't look too bad later on, with blocking building in the EPO region. No sign of a -NAO, though, and I haven't looked at the ensembles, yet. Overall, I expect Feb into March to be a pretty good period, with several events to track, after we escape the first week or so. CFSv2 seems to do well at the last day of the month, so I'll wait until the 31st to put any weight on it. 06z GEFS looks better than the 00z starting the 2nd week of Feb, which matches up well with other models/thoughts. Seems we'll have this one last "shot" if you will, around the 28th then get a little break with above average temperatures to start February, and coast into the 2nd week below normal and ready for action. Cold last 3/4's of Feb is still on table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Way too positively tilted. Looks like it wouldn't go negative until too late to pop a low anywhere but off the east coast. Right, IF it phases it will be a late phase, only benefiting MA who would probably like to thaw out at this point. Would add token flakes to the DelMarVa area which doesn't care to see any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Throw me in the camp of skeptical. I just have a hard time buying we get anything out of the setup currently on the models. My guess is the week of Feb. 5th - 10th or so we might have a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I know we have an ice pack to the north, but with the AO already positive now and staying that way until around Feb 4th at best, NAO already positive and goes to +1 by Feb 5th, and PNA going Negative on Feb 3rd, I don't see the cold source. I guess the EPO goes neutral but still not seeing it, at least now until first part of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Larry Cosgrove #weatheramerica Yes, Virginia (and other states in Appalachia, the Mid-Atlantic and New England), there IS a decent chance at another important winter storm around January 28 or so. Also the likelihood of a very mild start to February from the High Plains to the East Coast that translates to a stormy and cold pattern after February 4-5. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Not feeling anything for this week. The first week of February should be quiet, and then we get going again the second week. After all, have to give time for the skies to heal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS dropped the arctic hammer in the long range. 1048 hp settling into the upper plains and east. Squashes the moisture though. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Maybe we should have a February thread now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Mount Mitchell got 60+ inches from this storm. All time record. 41 fell on friday. Amazing Brasstowm Bald, GA got about 39 inches. http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/brasstown-bald-mtn-south/ http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/brasstown-bald-mtn-north/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS dropped the arctic hammer in the long range. 1048 hp settling into the upper plains and east. Squashes the moisture though. TW what the hell, we finally get cold and the storm track is squashed, Go Figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Brasstowm Bald, GA got about 39 inches. http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/brasstown-bald-mtn-south/ http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/brasstown-bald-mtn-north/ 39 inches is great but man 66 inches is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 39 inches is great but man 66 inches is unbelievable. Well you have to remember Mt Mitchell is about 1900 feet absl higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 CFSv2 seems to do well at the last day of the month, so I'll wait until the 31st to put any weight on it. 06z GEFS looks better than the 00z starting the 2nd week of Feb, which matches up well with other models/thoughts. Seems we'll have this one last "shot" if you will, around the 28th then get a little break with above average temperatures to start February, and coast into the 2nd week below normal and ready for action. Cold last 3/4's of Feb is still on table. Cold for 3/4 of Feb would be fine. Also good to have a nice weekend this weekend to clean up all of the limbs from the ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I'd like to see the pattern suppressed. Get the cold air here, then let the storm setup in the GoM and roar up the coastline off shore, in full form, already phased and strong. Imagine the last storm but suppressed south and east by a few hundred miles. We want to stay in that northern section of a fully formed storm for as long as possible. Yes, the mountains may not get as much moisture, but then they benefit from orthographic lift anyway. They could still get a good hit and so would most of the rest of us without the mixing issues. Its damn hard to get that type of setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Regardless of the path that the next system takes (Thursday), wouldn't the northern most counties and western counties have the risk of freezing rain if the moisture continues into the evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Presumably, yes. GFS shows 2m temps below freezing for those areas, and the 850s similar. Dont know if that 1012 slp will get it done though for getting the moisture in here. More likely cold chasing moisture and a simple frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Two things: 1) I like not seeing a big sustained warm-up on the Euro. In fact, the 12z shows blocking potentially building over the top. We'll see.... 2) Although, I'm not particularly impressed with the "event" this week, it's really not THAT far off. I mean, if the western ridge were somehow just a bit taller/sharper, and the wave in the STJ was oriented a bit differently, we could be looking at something threadable. I mean, you know I always want a good high pressure around, but if we got a perfect phase (based on the changes need above), we should have enough cold air for NC and maybe parts of NW SC/NE GA to get a nice snow. As has been previously mentioned, having a decent snow pack to the north won't hurt. Anyway, just food for thought on this tranquil and chilly winter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Two things: 1) I like not seeing a big sustained warm-up on the Euro. In fact, the 12z shows blocking potentially building over the top. We'll see.... 2) Although, I'm not particularly impressed with the "event" this week, it's really not THAT far off. I mean, if the western ridge were somehow just a bit taller/sharper, and the wave in the STJ was oriented a bit differently, we could be looking at something threadable. I mean, you know I always want a good high pressure around, but if we got a perfect phase (based on the changes need above), we should have enough cold air for NC and maybe parts of NW SC/NE GA to get a nice snow. As has been previously mentioned, having a decent snow pack to the north won't hurt. Anyway, just food for thought on this tranquil and chilly winter day. Raleigh likes it enough to put 40% chance Rain/Snow mix for Thursday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Raleigh likes it enough to put 40% chance Rain/Snow mix for Thursday: Yeah mix over for you guys. They have Raleigh proper at all rain. But who cares at this point, right? Plenty of time to watch it. I don't give it a great chance of becoming anything, but I think it's at least worth looking at with a side eye while putting a rain/snow mix icon in your signature.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Kind of surprised at the semi-bullish wording from WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1059 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 VALID 12Z THU JAN 28 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 01 2016 ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER THREATS... ...THE E-CENTRAL US... OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF RECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES OFFER THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND NRN/SRN STREAM SEPARATE FLOW WITH TROUGHING ALOFT OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA THU/FRI. THE WPC PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THIS SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PROVIDING A REASONABLE LOW POSITION NEAR THE CENTROID OF MORE VARIED ECMWF/UKMET DETERMINISTIC TIMINGS. THIS SEEMS TO FIT THE OVERALL PATTERN AND HAS SUPPORT FROM UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AT LEAST THE TRENDS FROM RECENT GFS/GFSP/GEFS RUNS. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS DEEPENING COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT/TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. LOW FORMATION IS NOT ANYWHERE ON THE ORDER OF THE RECENT HISTORIC STORM AND WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THIS COULD PROVIDE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ON A LESS THAN CERTAIN AXIS ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED WRAPPED PCPN SHIELD THU FROM THE INTERIOR SERN US NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN MODESTLY COOLED AIR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Lol did they just use the word "centroid"?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Kind of surprised at the semi-bullish wording from WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1059 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 VALID 12Z THU JAN 28 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 01 2016 ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER THREATS... ...THE E-CENTRAL US... OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF RECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES OFFER THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND NRN/SRN STREAM SEPARATE FLOW WITH TROUGHING ALOFT OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA THU/FRI. THE WPC PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THIS SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PROVIDING A REASONABLE LOW POSITION NEAR THE CENTROID OF MORE VARIED ECMWF/UKMET DETERMINISTIC TIMINGS. THIS SEEMS TO FIT THE OVERALL PATTERN AND HAS SUPPORT FROM UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AT LEAST THE TRENDS FROM RECENT GFS/GFSP/GEFS RUNS. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS DEEPENING COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT/TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. LOW FORMATION IS NOT ANYWHERE ON THE ORDER OF THE RECENT HISTORIC STORM AND WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THIS COULD PROVIDE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ON A LESS THAN CERTAIN AXIS ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED WRAPPED PCPN SHIELD THU FROM THE INTERIOR SERN US NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC IN MODESTLY COOLED AIR I doubt they had looked at the 12z runs. I like what they said though. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Good point TW, I'll go hide now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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