tarheelwx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I look at building the glacier to our north as paying our dues. It's not a bad thing. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Day 9 of the 18z GFS has a great look. Remember at this range you don't look at the details but the general pattern configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Day 9 of the 18z GFS has a great look. Remember at this range you don't look at the details but the general pattern configuration.Looks like a cutter, or even worse, miller B!We should be in our torch by then also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Day 9 of the 18z GFS has a great look. Remember at this range you don't look at the details but the general pattern configuration.lol... massive cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Haha Falls! That's both generally and specifically a cutter. Love the 1040 high though. That's a good start! But your point is taken, it will not look like that in 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Haha Falls! That's both generally and specifically a cutter. Love the 1040 high though. That's a good start! But your point is taken, it will not look like that in 9 days. Yeah, it doesn't give the MA 30"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 lol... massive cutter.Pattern changer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hey guys, hate to ask an IMBY question, but I am seriously going through snow withdrawal after this storm...You guys mentioned the 12z EURO control run was a big hit...Whta kind of QPF did it show for big cities up the coast? Was it similar to the 12z EURO OP, or much stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hey guys, hate to ask an IMBY question, but I am seriously going through snow withdrawal after this storm...You guys mentioned the 12z EURO control run was a big hit...Whta kind of QPF did it show for big cities up the coast? Was it similar to the 12z EURO OP, or much stronger? aka, How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hey guys, hate to ask an IMBY question, but I am seriously going through snow withdrawal after this storm...You guys mentioned the 12z EURO control run was a big hit...Whta kind of QPF did it show for big cities up the coast? Was it similar to the 12z EURO OP, or much stronger? Just a general 2-6" from CLT to NYC with maybe more like 5-8" for the NYC-BOS corridor. Not a big hit, but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 aka, How much for Philly?Their models broke after everybody in the MA got 20-40"! Poor them! Nobody around to do PBPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Haha Falls! That's both generally and specifically a cutter. Love the 1040 high though. That's a good start! But your point is taken, it will not look like that in 9 days. Exactly, strong high to the north with a storm coming across the country. That's all we need to know at this range. Cutter is very possible/probable but so is anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Day 9 of the 18z GFS has a great look. Remember at this range you don't look at the details but the general pattern configuration. Looks potentially icy to me. It's day 9 of course but that high would mean business if it ends up in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looks potentially icy to me. It's day 9 of course but that high would mean business if it ends up in the right place. We saw how much the models changed and trended with this last storm. All we need to know right now are if the players are on the field. Big high and a storm... good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looks potentially icy to me. It's day 9 of course but that high would mean business if it ends up in the right place.Agree! It's nice to see a 1040 high up there for a change! 1020-1030, are not that great ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I would be concerned about a severe weather threat since this includes AL and MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Mount Mitchell got 60+ inches from this storm. All time record. 41 fell on friday. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hour 72 on the 0z NAM looks close with a low off the GA coast. But it then moves the precip out before the upper air cools enough. Still looks like something that could trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 NAM at 84 hours has a 1024 hp over the northeast and a low off of Wilmington. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Late night JB comment on GFS: North of Lake Superior, the eastward part of the negative is too strong So what will happen is there will be more back toward Lake Winnipeg. This is usual GFS feedback error. In the southern branch, its developing the low too far out. The combination of the northern branch having a stronger piece further back and the actual low being on the coast, not well offshore Thursday morning (Near Ga coast) is likely to correct the model west with time. You can see at 84 hours what the implications of what I am saying about the northern branch is.. Look at how pronounced the western part is now.... May not mean anything for our weather in the southeast, but more rain further west IDK? Just thought it was interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I have recently heard mention of "cutters". I am familiar with Alberta Cutters, but this seems to be a distinct entity. Can anyone give a brief explanation to a low-level weather weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I have recently heard mention of "cutters". I am familiar with Alberta Cutters, but this seems to be a distinct entity. Can anyone give a brief explanation to a low-level weather weenie? Actually it Alberta Clippers, cutters are storms that "cut" up north early near the Appalachians or west of there and impact the GL and OH Valley, almost always rain east of the Apps even up into NE sometimes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I think this storm unfortunately cannot trend our way. It's clear there will be a strong low moving into the Great Lakes region prior to system onset, kicking out any high pressure. On top of that there's nothing to hold that high there...no 50/50, no blocking. A 1025mb high won't do it, and the fact that it's moving out doesn't help (no ice either). This is essentially all rain for the SE if it tracks close enough to the coast and isn't suppressed. I'm rooting for a suppressed low to stay dry and a nice weekend. We should be able to try again after the first week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Ya, I don't like the trends either...thejre might be a late hit over ENC....(Some high country stuff as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I think this storm unfortunately cannot trend our way. It's clear there will be a strong low moving into the Great Lakes region prior to system onset, kicking out any high pressure. On top of that there's nothing to hold that high there...no 50/50, no blocking. A 1025mb high won't do it, and the fact that it's moving out doesn't help (no ice either). This is essentially all rain for the SE if it tracks close enough to the coast and isn't suppressed. I'm rooting for a suppressed low to stay dry and a nice weekend. We should be able to try again after the first week of Feb. Jon, it will be interesting to see how the snow pack to our north effects our temps once winds go north (at anytime). We had a similar event after the 96 storm that gave us freezing rain when all indications said rain a couple days before. From RAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL BECOME STALLED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE EUROPEAN AND THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST... WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OFFSHORE LIMITING THE INLAND PRECIPITATION. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WPC`S CURRENT MODEL PREFERENCES AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING AGAIN THURSDAY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY STILL BE A WINTRY P-TYPE THREAT INCLUDING SNOW AND OR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY... BUT THIS IS STILL A LOW PROBABILITY AT THE CURRENT TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF TRUE ARCTIC AIR AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH TO DELIVER THE COLD AIR. WE WILL CARRY LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO 40S ELSEWHERE THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 doesn't look good I'm assuming since its this quite on here, oh well, patience I guess. Fellows we have got to get some cold H pressure building in and hanging around for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I think this storm unfortunately cannot trend our way. It's clear there will be a strong low moving into the Great Lakes region prior to system onset, kicking out any high pressure. On top of that there's nothing to hold that high there...no 50/50, no blocking. A 1025mb high won't do it, and the fact that it's moving out doesn't help (no ice either). This is essentially all rain for the SE if it tracks close enough to the coast and isn't suppressed. I'm rooting for a suppressed low to stay dry and a nice weekend. We should be able to try again after the first week of Feb. In this situation the Great Lakes low is the only reason there is even a chance for this storm . Without it there would be no northern stream energy and no possible phases. This isn't your normal Great Lakes low screw job Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 In this situation the Great Lakes low is the only reason there is even a chance for this storm . Without it there would be no northern stream energy and no possible phases. This isn't your normal Great Lakes low screw job Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk While I agree, the thing is I'm not counting on the SE getting wintry hoping on a phase and a snowpack to north to supply the cold air. I'm not sure phasing is ideal here. What I mean by that is yeah it's probably best case scenario but even then, we are likely looking at a rain solution. It sounds like a little wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 While I agree, the thing is I'm not counting on the SE getting wintry hoping on a phase and a snowpack to north to supply the cold air. I'm not sure phasing is ideal here. It sounds like a little wishful thinking. Oh I agree 100%. But what's winter in the south without a little wishful thinking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 0z euro was real close: Heres 6z Nam. see what happens at 12 z: one frame of euro 0z almost matches 6z nam TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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