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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


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Hey guys, hate to ask an IMBY question, but I am seriously going through snow withdrawal after this storm...You guys mentioned the 12z EURO control run was a big hit...Whta kind of QPF did it show for big cities up the coast? Was it similar to the 12z EURO OP, or much stronger? 

aka, How much for Philly?

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Hey guys, hate to ask an IMBY question, but I am seriously going through snow withdrawal after this storm...You guys mentioned the 12z EURO control run was a big hit...Whta kind of QPF did it show for big cities up the coast? Was it similar to the 12z EURO OP, or much stronger?

Just a general 2-6" from CLT to NYC with maybe more like 5-8" for the NYC-BOS corridor. Not a big hit, but something.

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Haha Falls! That's both generally and specifically a cutter. Love the 1040 high though. That's a good start!

But your point is taken, it will not look like that in 9 days.

Exactly, strong high to the north with a storm coming across the country. That's all we need to know at this range. Cutter is very possible/probable but so is anything else.

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Late night JB comment on GFS: 

 

North of Lake Superior, the eastward part of the negative is too strong So what will happen is there will be more back toward Lake Winnipeg. This is usual GFS feedback error. In the southern branch, its developing the low too far out. The combination of the northern branch having a stronger piece further back and the actual low being on the coast, not well offshore Thursday morning (Near Ga coast) is likely to correct the model west with time. You can see at 84 hours what the implications of what I am saying about the northern branch is.. Look at how pronounced the western part is now....  May not mean anything for our weather in the southeast, but more rain further west IDK? Just thought it was interesting! 

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I have recently heard mention of "cutters".  I am familiar with Alberta Cutters, but this seems to be a distinct entity.  Can anyone give a brief explanation to a low-level weather weenie?

 

Actually it Alberta Clippers, cutters are storms that "cut" up north early near the Appalachians or west of there and impact the GL and OH Valley, almost always rain east of the Apps even up into NE sometimes....

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I think this storm unfortunately cannot trend our way. It's clear there will be a strong low moving into the Great Lakes region prior to system onset, kicking out any high pressure. On top of that there's nothing to hold that high there...no 50/50, no blocking. A 1025mb high won't do it, and the fact that it's moving out doesn't help (no ice either). This is essentially all rain for the SE if it tracks close enough to the coast and isn't suppressed. I'm rooting for a suppressed low to stay dry and a nice weekend. We should be able to try again after the first week of Feb.

569f4766cda56a9da8ec723810c970e2.jpg

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I think this storm unfortunately cannot trend our way. It's clear there will be a strong low moving into the Great Lakes region prior to system onset, kicking out any high pressure. On top of that there's nothing to hold that high there...no 50/50, no blocking. A 1025mb high won't do it, and the fact that it's moving out doesn't help (no ice either). This is essentially all rain for the SE if it tracks close enough to the coast and isn't suppressed. I'm rooting for a suppressed low to stay dry and a nice weekend. We should be able to try again after the first week of Feb.

 

Jon, it will be interesting to see how the snow pack to our north effects our temps once winds go north (at anytime). We had a similar event after the 96 storm that gave us freezing rain when all indications said rain a couple days before. 

 

From RAH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER

SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL BECOME

STALLED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE. THE EUROPEAN AND THE ENSEMBLE

SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST... WHILE THE

GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE OFFSHORE LIMITING THE INLAND

PRECIPITATION. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WPC`S CURRENT MODEL PREFERENCES AND KEEP A

CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING AGAIN THURSDAY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY

NIGHT. THERE MAY STILL BE A WINTRY P-TYPE THREAT INCLUDING SNOW AND

OR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT

AND EARLY FRIDAY... BUT THIS IS STILL A LOW PROBABILITY AT THE

CURRENT TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF TRUE ARCTIC AIR AND STRENGTH OF

SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH TO DELIVER THE COLD AIR. WE WILL CARRY

LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO 40S ELSEWHERE

THURSDAY.

 

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I think this storm unfortunately cannot trend our way. It's clear there will be a strong low moving into the Great Lakes region prior to system onset, kicking out any high pressure. On top of that there's nothing to hold that high there...no 50/50, no blocking. A 1025mb high won't do it, and the fact that it's moving out doesn't help (no ice either). This is essentially all rain for the SE if it tracks close enough to the coast and isn't suppressed. I'm rooting for a suppressed low to stay dry and a nice weekend. We should be able to try again after the first week of Feb.

569f4766cda56a9da8ec723810c970e2.jpg

In this situation the Great Lakes low is the only reason there is even a chance for this storm . Without it there would be no northern stream energy and no possible phases. This isn't your normal Great Lakes low screw job

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In this situation the Great Lakes low is the only reason there is even a chance for this storm . Without it there would be no northern stream energy and no possible phases. This isn't your normal Great Lakes low screw job

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

While I agree, the thing is I'm not counting on the SE getting wintry hoping on a phase and a snowpack to north to supply the cold air. I'm not sure phasing is ideal here. What I mean by that is yeah it's probably best case scenario but even then, we are likely looking at a rain solution. It sounds like a little wishful thinking.
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While I agree, the thing is I'm not counting on the SE getting wintry hoping on a phase and a snowpack to north to supply the cold air. I'm not sure phasing is ideal here. It sounds like a little wishful thinking.

Oh I agree 100%. But what's winter in the south without a little wishful thinking

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