January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[TiltedStorm]

Anyone checked on feb 5 storm yet?

[TiltedStorm]

Also the CMC at Hr 122 is picking up a storm in the western Carolinas. Don't know how accurate it is that far out.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[BIG FROSTY]

CMC FTW

 

[tarheelwx]

NAM looked interesting at 84. Cold front, some moisture to the south, and decent hp moving into the lakes. Not impossible from there. TW

[Brick Tamland]

NAM looks good, too. Just don't know if temps will cooperate.

[SN_Lover]

CMC FTW

I looked at the 0z suite and cmc caved. cmc looks like the GFS. NAM looks like the GFS also. The threat for next week is non-existent. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I looked at the 0z suite and cmc caved. cmc looks like the GFS. NAM looks like the GFS also. The threat for next week is non-existent. 

 

I believe you said something similar about this past event at that range. To call a threat dead this far out is not wise. Just saying....

[tarheelwx]

The gfs at 96 is workable. TW

[SN_Lover]

I believe you said something similar about this past event at that range. To call a threat dead this far out is not wise. Just saying....

I was referencing a GFS run that did not phase. Never said this past event was never going to happen. And it's about 5 days away, not like it's 200 or 300 hours out and sigma values are all over the place. I seen this last year also and it was just a frontal passage also. I think only 1 member of the 18z GFS actually had a strong low off the coast of NC last 18z run. 

[Batman]

There were people on here that wrote this past storm off on Monday and Tuesday. Said it was over, not gonna happen. Just like there have been people on here saying winters over up until this past week. This was a huge storm. We got about 3" of rain Thursday night and Friday and then about 1/2" of snow on the back side last night and this morning. Pretty close to what FFC and local mets (at least the ones that actually make a forecast) were saying. I feel bad for y'all in the Carolinas. You were on the cold side and got some snow and ice, but kinda got robbed by the energy transfering over to the coastal. 

 

Back to the present and future. To write off a threat 5-6 days from now or to cast doubts on the remainder of the winter at this point would likely make one look as foolish as it would to go back at look at posts from Monday and Tuesday saying "this storm is done" because the 12Z GFS says so for hour 120!! If nothing else, the volatility of this season would give reason to be reluctant to write off any particular outcome that far away.

[SN_Lover]

There were people on here that wrote this past storm off on Monday and Tuesday. Said it was over, not gonna happen. Just like there have been people on here saying winters over up until this past week. This was a huge storm. We got about 3" of rain Thursday night and Friday and then about 1/2" of snow on the back side last night and this morning. Pretty close to what FFC and local mets (at least the ones that actually make a forecast) were saying. I feel bad for y'all in the Carolinas. You were on the cold side and got some snow and ice, but kinda got robbed by the energy transfering over to the coastal. 

 

Back to the present and future. To write off a threat 5-6 days from now or to cast doubts on the remainder of the winter at this point would likely make one look as foolish as it would to go back at look at posts from Monday and Tuesday saying "this storm is done" because the 12Z GFS says so for hour 120!! If nothing else, the volatility of this season would give reason to be reluctant to write off any particular outcome that far away.

First. Nobody said the last event wasnt going to happen. People just were   's and thought they would get snow. Second, i know 1 person said it was not going to be a cold feb and he was being sarcastic. This event is completely different from the last one. Less ensemble and model support. Maybe we get a nice event down the road in Feb, but this one looks like it's a frontal passage. 

[superjames1992]

I was referencing a GFS run that did not phase. Never said this past event was never going to happen. And it's about 5 days away, not like it's 200 or 300 hours out and sigma values are all over the place. I seen this last year also and it was just a frontal passage also. I think only 1 member of the 18z GFS actually had a strong low off the coast of NC last 18z run.

Whatever the potential is here (and I'm not saying there is much), it looks like an overrunning deal to me, so I'm not sure what difference a strong low makes, TBH.

[SN_Lover]

Whatever the potential is here (and I'm not saying there is much), it looks like an overrunning deal to me, so I'm not sure what difference a strong low makes, TBH.

That's what the NE is banking on in relation to the deform band. And this probably wont be a overrunning event. 

[Batman]

First. Nobody said the last event wasnt going to happen. People just were   's and thought they would get snow. Second, i know 1 person said it was not going to be a cold feb and he was being sarcastic. This event is completely different from the last one. Less ensemble and model support. Maybe we get a nice event down the road in Feb, but this one looks like it's a frontal passage. 

I am not calling anyone out in particular, but there are plenty of posts on this thread writing this storm off. Many of these posts would be based on a model run. On the flip side, you can go back and see congratulations being handed out and celebrations over one model run showing something good for someone. I find it comical. I always have. 

 

And yes, There have been folks saying that after we warm up next weekend, they don't see how we get back into a cold pattern. I just scratch my head at how many people seem to speak in absolutes without a ton of evidence to support it.

[mackerel_sky]

Last 3 Euro runs for the Wed event have trended warmer! Not really the direction we want to be headed. Guess we could pull off a SE trend again?

[superjames1992]

Last 3 Euro runs for the Wed event have trended warmer! Not really the direction we want to be headed. Guess we could pull off a SE trend again?

I'm out. The 12z EPS suggests we might dance again the second week of FAB FEB.

[mackerel_sky]

Euro be like what storm! The silence here is deafening ! Fab Feb won't dissapoint!

The UKMet will save us!?

[superjames1992]

Euro be like what storm! The silence here is deafening ! Fab Feb won't dissapoint!

The UKMet will save us!?

The Euro had another Miller A rainstorm.

Getting another rainstorm from a well-tracking coastal in the heart of winter is going to be awesome.

[Bsudweather]

The Euro had another Miller A rainstorm.

Getting another rainstorm from a well-tracking coastal in the heart of winter is going to be awesome.

Ahh no worries it will trend colder!

[burgertime]

This was literally 5 days before the last storm when you said this...Now how are people supposed to take that? 

 

I think we can say with likelihood that South Carolina is not going to get any winter precip out of this. Also, non-mtns/ft hills/ N Piedmont sections of NC's chances are diminishing also. 

 

 

I was referencing a GFS run that did not phase. Never said this past event was never going to happen. And it's about 5 days away, not like it's 200 or 300 hours out and sigma values are all over the place. I seen this last year also and it was just a frontal passage also. I think only 1 member of the 18z GFS actually had a strong low off the coast of NC last 18z run. 

 

Look I kind of agree with you in that I don't see anything to be excited about yet....but we usually see some sort of repeat with winter storms. Kind of fruitless to make any claims either way though outside of reporting what models show.

[FallsLake]

This was literally 5 days before the last storm when you said this...Now how are people supposed to take that? 

 

 

 

 

Look I kind of agree with you in that I don't see anything to be excited about yet....but we usually see some sort of repeat with winter storms. Kind of fruitless to make any claims either way though outside of reporting what models show.

6z GFS says games on. From about hour 84 onward most precip in north and west NC would be frozen or freezing.

 

Looks .25 or greater from Charlotte up to the Triad and over to the Triangle.

 

Remember we now have a glacier to our north. That's going to cause models to underestimate the low level cold.

 

Edit: GFS shows the precip types as initially snow (for N NC) after hour 84 but surface temps would be questionable. Winds would be from the north so again maybe surface temps will trend colder.

[BIG FROSTY]

6z GFS says games on. From about hour 84 onward most precip in north and west NC would be frozen or freezing.

Looks .25 or greater from Charlotte up to the Triad and over to the Triangle.

Remember we now have a glacier to our north. That's going to cause models to underestimate the low level cold.

Edit: GFS shows the precip types as initially snow (for N NC) after hour 84 but surface temps would be questionable. Winds would be from the north so again maybe surface temps will trend colder.

I've seen this many times, I agree 100% That Deep a snow pack up north will help ( if we get northerly wind) a lot with surface temps. Seen it many times, It most likely be an Ice event if anything. with no cold High pressing. But I wouldn't rule anything out just yet!

Edit: Just for the record I believe winter is far from over around here, I think February and March will produce in the SE. IMHO

[wh_adkins01]

I'm liking the set up. Lots of energy just spinning around the gulf to the nc coast for two days. Cold enough? We will see

[SN_Lover]

This was literally 5 days before the last storm when you said this...Now how are people supposed to take that?

Look I kind of agree with you in that I don't see anything to be excited about yet....but we usually see some sort of repeat with winter storms. Kind of fruitless to make any claims either way though outside of reporting what models show.

Guess my college and professional experience means nothing. Oh and I didn't say that it wasn't going to happen I was talking about trends. But this is a straight up cold front. So I will say with almost absolute confidence that charlotte won't see and winter precip.

[Solak]

For RDU -- 06z GFS 2½" snow Wednesday evening (1/27)

 

NWS Raleigh

Wednesday

A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday Night

A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Tacoma]

let's not waste a perfectly good Miller A track on rain, hopefully the wind coming from the north over all the snow pack and some type of H pressure to the north of us will bring the snow to the Carolinas and Ga.

[BIG FROSTY]

06z CMC Certainly not as good as last night's 18z  but still the potential is there IMO  It wouldn't take much to get the 18z look back!  

 

[mackerel_sky]

Guess my college and professional experience means nothing. Oh and I didn't say that it wasn't going to happen I was talking about trends. But this is a straight up cold front. So I will say with almost absolute confidence that charlotte won't see and winter precip.

You sound like a whiny politician! You won't give a solid , definate answer and toss in "almost" absolute confidence! Way to stand your ground!

[FranknRaleigh]

Guess my college and professional experience means nothing. Oh and I didn't say that it wasn't going to happen I was talking about trends. But this is a straight up cold front. So I will say with almost absolute confidence that charlotte won't see and winter precip.

Read my post on the "what we've learned" thread.

[Cold Rain]

Any high pressure showing up yet besides the 1022mb one way up in Canada on Frosty's map above?