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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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Tall and JAX are calling for a "warming trend" starting next Saturday.

 

Here's hoping they are as right about that as my flurries and snow shower today (which they didn't have a clue about)!

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

NAO seems to be going +, but what has a long "-" meant until today (if the NAO had anything to do with the storm in the first place)?  PNA stays + and AO is progged around neutral. Not too bad; not great, but with El Nincompoop, who knows. IMHO - not too bad; not too good. {Walk the fence, dude}

 

Waiting for tomorrow's runs once this storm is out of the data ingest.

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Tall and JAX are calling for a "warming trend" starting next Saturday.

 

Here's hoping they are as right about that as my flurries and snow shower today (which they didn't have a clue about)!

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

NAO seems to be going +, but what has a long "-" meant until today (if the NAO had anything to do with the storm in the first place)?  PNA stays + and AO is progged around neutral. Not too bad; not great, but with El Nincompoop, who knows. IMHO - not too bad; not too good. {Walk the fence, dude}

 

Waiting for tomorrow's runs once this storm is out of the data ingest.

 

Looks like we get a big cutter around D10 that should put us well above normal for a couple days, then it's back to averageish temps again.  The warmup that has been advertised for weeks looks muted and short-lived.

 

The teleconnections don't look as good with a positive to neutral NAO for the foreseeable future, but meh.

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FROM KFFC

 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS THE DRIER OF THE
MODELS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH GA WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
WHEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BETWEEN THE MODELS. LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS
NORTH FL ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE INTO NORTH GA
WHILE THE GFS LIMITS THE MOISTURE TO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH GA.
WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE ON POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIP
TO BE RAIN. THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGES OF THE PRECIP SHIELD COULD
HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
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I don't like the looks of the pattern breaking down this late in the game. the MJO is forecasted to go into a very warm phase for Feb. Just hope it's wrong! We need blocking if we are going to score in Feb and March!!! We can score without blocking, but chances are much better with it... Kinda depressing after all the build up to the past storm, and poof it's gone and looks like we going into a warmer pattern.... Frosty is beginning to melt.  :(

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C Justus on 4, just said he's not seeing anything wintry in the next 12+ days! And advertising 61 next Saturday ! ;(

Wouldn't surprise me a bit for him to have to eat those words. With what today's 12z showed Low in GOM Aand high to NE noway would I be saying what he is saying. But of course they have to be very conservative on air.

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Wouldn't surprise me a bit for him to have to eat those words. With what today's 12z showed Low in GOM Aand high to NE noway would I be saying what he is saying. But of course they have to be very conservative on air.

Yep, they will always go for the scenario that has the least amount of impact to viewers at this range. The way the models flip, it is best to avoid a situation where you would have to back-pedal" As winter weather fans, we can hype a storm and not worry about he ramifications of being wrong come verification time. Having said that, I don't understand why they would even put out a 7 day forecast and deceive folks into thinking there was no threat whatsoever.

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Yep, they will always go for the scenario that has the least amount of impact to viewers at this range. The way the models flip, it is best to avoid a situation where you would have to back-pedal" As winter weather fans, we can hype a storm and not worry about he ramifications of being wrong come verification time. Having said that, I don't understand why they would even put out a 7 day forecast and deceive folks into thinking there was no threat whatsoever.

I totally agree!

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Yep, they will always go for the scenario that has the least amount of impact to viewers at this range. The way the models flip, it is best to avoid a situation where you would have to back-pedal" As winter weather fans, we can hype a storm and not worry about he ramifications of being wrong come verification time. Having said that, I don't understand why they would even put out a 7 day forecast and deceive folks into thinking there was no threat whatsoever.

Nice post and I agree! But he's normally a pretty big snow weenie, and if there was a 5-6 day threat, he would say we are going to have to watch this, looks like rain, but things could change. That's pretty conservative , but saying no wintry weather for 12 days, is a pretty bold statement in the middle of winter!
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Unfortunately, going with climo has served them well through the years. That's one of my beefs with Fishel. He's the best inside 24 hours, but usually doesn't talk much about what if's and potential. I think this past storm was a pretty good example. I guess he gives a lot of weight to the gfs - and its partner climate models I'd presume. TW

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Nice post and I agree! But he's normally a pretty big snow weenie, and if there was a 5-6 day threat, he would say we are going to have to watch this, looks like rain, but things could change. That's pretty conservative , but saying no wintry weather for 12 days, is a pretty bold statement in the middle of winter!

I see where you coming from but snow weenie or not, he still is limited to what he can say on air in a certain time period even if he does see a threat. I bet right now he knows there's a threat from what he seen on today's Euro run, but being limited he could not say anything about it this far out. So he goes with 61° and will adjust from there if need to be.

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Unfortunately, going with climo has served them well through the years. That's one of my beefs with Fishel. He's the best inside 24 hours, but usually doesn't talk much about what if's and potential. I think this past storm was a pretty good example. I guess he gives a lot of weight to the gfs - and its partner climate models I'd presume. TW

Producers will not allow much speculation. He knows all the potential but is not allowed to speculte on air. It causes way to many problems with people that pick out only the parts they want to hear. Alot like some folks here.

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