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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted

Amazing the GFS and euro both have a gulf low next Thursday and then of course goofy goes nuts two days later with a SE winter storm

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The signal is there, the fact euro and GFS have a storm suppressed inside hour 240 is a good sign. The cold is also in place. The track details will work out once we get under 180 hours and especially inside the 5 day range so not worried too much about that at this point.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

if it was a perfect track we would have 3 new pages of fantasy snow maps and most everyone would be scared to death of the NW trend over the next week.  i've seen a lot of our big dogs modeled exactly like this 200+hrs out.  

A suppressed storm is only relative to the person that's too far north to get into the action. Those people become depressed.

 

But seriously, this type of setup could have a storm affect areas through the deep south. I would say that option is about as high as the storm affecting us with a more typical SE storm path.

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griteater

griteater

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if it was a perfect track we would have 3 new pages of fantasy snow maps and most everyone would be scared to death of the NW trend over the next week.  i've seen a lot of our big dogs modeled exactly like this 200+hrs out.  

 

I agree Doppler many of our successful setups stayed suppressed in the gulf on the models, then pulled north just before go time.  The gulf is our ace in the hole as a weak wave and SW flow can get the precip climbing north in earnest.  One things for sure, we have the full gamut of opinions in here on the upcoming pattern so someone's going to be right.

 

Here's a snippet from the CPC discussion today...

THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE PRIMARY  DIFFERENCE BEING A PREDICTED EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM  ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. CURRENTLY, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS INCREASED  STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST REGIONS, CONTINUING  OUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC.
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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted

 

UKMet looks cold at hr120-144 - big trough over most of the country.  STJ wave approaching California

 

Jan_5_UKMet_1.gif

Jan_5_UKMet_2.gif

 

 

With regards to the top picture, it always seems the trough sets up West of the Mtns and the SE is almost always on the "upswing" of the trough keeping the true cold air just to our West. I remember a handful of times where the trough has set up with us just inside the base, but it almost never happens. That picture looks more like an SE ridge rearing it's head with the (all too familiar in the past decade) Texas to Bama getting the fun. Darn Apps always getting in the way! For the record, I like the pattern we are in (and heading into) way better than where we were. I would like to see some highs setting up over the lakes though, seems to be missing from most of the runs right now. 

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
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I guess I am all alone to think this pattern is full of potential?

Nope I think a few on here believe it has a lot of potential, I certainly think so. The GFS changes run to run even inside 120 hours, the 00z run is already much different for the system in a few days and the one after that, much drier and further west track. Models are having a difficult time but the overall pattern is favorable for something to pop up, and soon. Too much energy around and enough cold air for some fun ahead!

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
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Sadly it gets crushed.

SW 500mb flow aloft, almost goes neutral.. We need the energy to dig more and/or go neutral sooner. Even verbatim a chance for some light overrunning with that flow aloft, if moisture is there. Don't have access to euro moisture maps so could be dry but typically a SW 500mb flow aloft over cold air produces some light overrunning not picked up on by models until you're inside the 72-96 range. Wouldn't take much at all to turn it into a nice 2-4" snow event.

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Shawn

Shawn

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SW 500mb flow aloft, almost goes neutral.. We need the energy to dig more and/or go neutral sooner. Even verbatim a chance for some light overrunning with that flow aloft, if moisture is there. Don't have access to euro moisture maps so could be dry but typically a SW 500mb flow aloft over cold air produces some light overrunning not picked up on by models until you're inside the 72-96 range. Wouldn't take much at all to turn it into a nice 2-4" snow event.

 

I know those model sites can be pricey.  I think Andrew still offers Euro data fairly cheap on the Eurowx dot com site.  $10 a month or so?  His snow maps aren't clowntastic and generally show the true picture with ice/snow amounts.

 

I don't personally use it, but did a trial a long time ago.. which I think you can do for 7 days or so.  I am not sure if Euro ensembles are included.

 

Either way, $10 a month for okay Euro data isn't too bad if it's still set up like it used to be.  Maybe try it out.

 

 

Edit: looking at the support forum, it looks like he is still updating/making the site better.  I might have to take a look at it later myself.  Fred Gossage seems to use it and like it.

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted

I know those model sites can be pricey. I think Andrew still offers Euro data fairly cheap on the Eurowx dot com site. $10 a month or so? His snow maps aren't clowntastic and generally show the true picture with ice/snow amounts.

I don't personally use it, but did a trial a long time ago.. which I think you can do for 7 days or so. I am not sure if Euro ensembles are included.

Either way, $10 a month for okay Euro data isn't too bad if it's still set up like it used to be. Maybe try it out.

Edit: looking at the support forum, it looks like he is still updating/making the site better. I might have to take a look at it later myself. Fred Gossage seems to use it and like it.

I have found on wxbell they have the 700mb RH maps for the Euro which help some. I like having access to 500mb RH and 850mb RH maps as sometimes you can get shallow moisture below 700mb and the 500mb RH maps are useful for seeing how deep the moisture really is. Thanks for that suggestion I'll check it out!

Btw our January 14-15th storm is still there on the Euro and looks good for SC and northern GA folks.

post-2321-0-38572800-1452063431_thumb.pn

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Shawn

Shawn

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I have found on wxbell they have the 700mb RH maps for the Euro which help some. I like having access to 500mb RH and 850mb RH maps as sometimes you can get shallow moisture below 700mb and the 500mb RH maps are useful for seeing how deep the moisture really is. Thanks for that suggestion I'll check it out!

Btw our January 14-15th storm is still there on the Euro and looks good for SC and northern GA folks.

 

It's extremely close to being a Winter event.  Definitely the best interest down this way in SC of all the other looks so far.  Maybe things will improve and get the high over a bit quicker and a slight North trend of the moisture.  I like the idea that's two runs in succession today having something fairly close to doing something.

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted

It's extremely close to being a Winter event.  Definitely the best interest down this way in SC of all the other looks so far.  Maybe things will improve and get the high over a bit quicker and a slight North trend of the moisture.  I like the idea that's two runs in succession today having something fairly close to doing something.

Yes good trends are the key. Consistency now in a threat to watch, both the 11-12th and 14-15th. I'm watching 12-13th for overrunning precip as that vort digs, imo it will dig further south than Euro shows and with SW flow at 500mb could drop a few inches. Then the 14-15th has potential for a classic Miller A storm as well, it's consistently being shown on the Euro as well which gives it some weight as a possible solution.

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