BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 1m1 minute ago ECMWF 12z next storm further south next Fri-Sat -- not enough cold air, just rain/t-storms so far for Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yeah but the high moves out...we need to hope something can hold the high in place, or at least the models trending towards the high either staying longer or the storm speeding up. Not looking that great at the moment. Thanks man, sounds about right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Rain in Mountains also?No need to worry about temps at this range, or 12 hrs out for that matter, it'll work itself out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ukie! GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif1015 high, probably not going to help much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GFS and Canadian are quicker and colder than the Euro. Guess it could trend better, but seems to be a long shot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Will make its own cold air (check off from the catch phrase thread). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 View conversation 1 retweet0 likes Reply Retweet 1 Like More Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago Canadian model (which I wouldn't trust at 6-days) has a solution that would rip a hole in the space-time continuum over Mid-Atlantic. Oh goody Mid-Atlantic gonna get another big one!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Franklin...smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 1015 high, probably not going to help much We would hope for snow underneath the ULL in this setup. It's sub 546 and deepening, so one would think that the core of it is plenty cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 What a pattern flip from December torch. Not counting today's high of 29 which is about 16 BN, Greensboro is -2.8 for January. Beleive December was like +8 or something crazy off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 No need to worry about temps at this range, or 12 hrs out for that matter, it'll work itself out! Rates will overcome all, am I right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Don't need real cold air for a miller A, just cold enough! this far out I wouldn't rule out snow somewhere in the southeast......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 My spider senses aren't tingling on this one, looks like a nice rain. Relying on an ULL is suicide, but I wouldn't mind seeing a hole in space time over the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 If a true Miller A, it will be hard to not have at least some snow on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 We would hope for snow underneath the ULL in this setup. It's sub 546 and deepening, so one would think that the core of it is plenty cold enough for snow.I've heard the source of the ULL makes a big difference !? Is this one coming from Canada or the Pacific Ocean ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 My spider senses aren't tingling on this one, looks like a nice rain. Relying on an ULL is suicide, but I wouldn't mind seeing a hole in space time over the Mid-Atlantic.There's alot of 'holes in the MA!?I'm waiting on a DT first call map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 View conversation 1 retweet0 likes Reply Retweet 1 Like More Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago Canadian model (which I wouldn't trust at 6-days) has a solution that would rip a hole in the space-time continuum over Mid-Atlantic. Oh goody Mid-Atlantic gonna get another big one!!! It lived on you pretty good as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 On the Ukie, you can see the 500 mb low centered on Alabama/MS. That would probably be snow along the ULL path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Is JB still saying '93 look alike for next weeks storm, or is he back to some sort of reality!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Franklin...smh.you're not out playing in the snow? Had two good snows this week and broke two sleds today. I could use 5 days to recover before the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Is JB still saying '93 look alike for next weeks storm, or is he back to some sort of reality!?back to reality. Still likes a storm, but says it should be more typical and not as big as this one. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 1m1 minute ago ECMWF 12z next storm further south next Fri-Sat -- not enough cold air, just rain/t-storms so far for Carolinas. AS Chris Simmons said last night next week storm probably too far south would most likely trend north with time. let's get the miller a look then we worry about temps, with all snow pack north of us it wouldn't take much, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 AS Chris Simmons said last night next week storm probably too far south would most likely trend north with time. let's get the miller a look then we worry about temps, with all snow pack north of us it wouldn't take much, You are correct..... Give me a perfect miller A track with snow cover to the north and I will take my changes. If you are under the deformation band, it will be snow, due to the lack of any horizontal advection. Where that band sets up is anyone's guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Last half of RAH long range: ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICOAND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTAMONG THE MODELS AND EVEN THE AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLEMEMBERS. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREADRY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST...BRINGINGPRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOWEND CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. AS IS THESEASON...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE IS THE POTENTIALTO HAVE SOME P-TYPE ISSUES...SO STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Last half of RAH long range: ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND EVEN THE AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST...BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. AS IS THE SEASON...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SOME P-TYPE ISSUES...SO STAY TUNED. temps will be an unknown for a day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 you're not out playing in the snow? Had two good snows this week and broke two sleds today. I could use 5 days to recover before the next one. Just got power back. Man, it was too cold. If your high doesn't stay in place, you'll have plenty of time to recover. Take care of those sleds man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 GSP says there will be a fropa on Tuesday, so that may be our cold air, if we get any storm. Still saying model uncertainty, but if any precip gets here , will be wintry mix N of 85 , rain south! But small cance of any precip, as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Eps was a lot colder than the op. Tracks all look good, theres a little spread but they all miller A through northern GOM across big bend Florida and off on a NE heading GA /FL line slanting up the coast to a point about 50 miles se of Morehead. Actually think the ens on all 3 big boys gfs,can,euro look very similar. Euro op just needs to get its mess up in NE squared away with the confluence. Beleive it was last Mon when the big zeroing in for today's storm showed itself on the euro op after its ens had been honking. So hopefully by 12z tommorow or 0z sun night the euro op will sound the alarm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Eps was a lot colder than the op. Tracks all look good, theres a little spread but they all miller A through northern GOM across big bend Florida and off on a NE heading GA /FL line slanting up the coast to a point about 50 miles se of Morehead. Actually think the ens on all 3 big boys gfs,can,euro look very similar. Euro op just needs to get its mess up in NE squared away with the confluence. Beleive it was last Mon when the big zeroing in for today's storm showed itself on the euro op after its ens had been honking. So hopefully by 12z tommorow or 0z sun night the euro op will sound the alarm again Man, if it works out its your thread for real! You've been all over this one. Would be great if it's even close, heading to Boone on Thursday for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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