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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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    Canadian model (which I wouldn't trust at 6-days) has a solution that would rip a hole in the space-time continuum over Mid-Atlantic.

     

    Oh goody Mid-Atlantic gonna get another big one!!!

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    7LabZrIz_bigger.jpegRyan Maue ‏@RyanMaue  5m5 minutes ago

    Canadian model (which I wouldn't trust at 6-days) has a solution that would rip a hole in the space-time continuum over Mid-Atlantic.

     

    Oh goody Mid-Atlantic gonna get another big one!!!

It lived on you pretty good as well

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ECMWF 12z next storm further south next Fri-Sat -- not enough cold air, just rain/t-storms so far for Carolinas.

 

 

CZbUkofUEAAx0Ym.jpg

 

AS Chris Simmons said last night next week storm probably too far south would most likely trend north with time.  let's get the miller a look then we worry about temps, with all snow pack north of us it wouldn't take much,   :snowwindow:

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AS Chris Simmons said last night next week storm probably too far south would most likely trend north with time.  let's get the miller a look then we worry about temps, with all snow pack north of us it wouldn't take much,   :snowwindow:

 

You are correct..... Give me a perfect miller A track with snow cover to the north and I will take my changes. If you are under the deformation band, it will be snow, due to the lack of any horizontal advection. Where that band sets up is anyone's guess right now.

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Last half of RAH long range:

ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AND EVEN THE AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA
DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST...BRINGING
PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW
END CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. AS IS THE
SEASON...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE SOME P-TYPE ISSUES...SO STAY TUNED
.

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Last half of RAH long range:

ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT

AMONG THE MODELS AND EVEN THE AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA

DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST...BRINGING

PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW

END CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. AS IS THE

SEASON...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL

TO HAVE SOME P-TYPE ISSUES...SO STAY TUNED.

temps will be an unknown for a day or two

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you're not out playing in the snow? Had two good snows this week and broke two sleds today. I could use 5 days to recover before the next one.

Just got power back. Man, it was too cold. If your high doesn't stay in place, you'll have plenty of time to recover. :)

Take care of those sleds man!

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Eps was a lot colder than the op. Tracks all look good, theres a little spread but they all miller A through northern GOM across big bend Florida and off on a NE heading GA /FL line slanting up the coast to a point about 50 miles se of Morehead. Actually think the ens on all 3 big boys gfs,can,euro look very similar. Euro op just needs to get its mess up in NE squared away with the confluence.

Beleive it was last Mon when the big zeroing in for today's storm showed itself on the euro op after its ens had been honking. So hopefully by 12z tommorow or 0z sun night the euro op will sound the alarm again

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Eps was a lot colder than the op. Tracks all look good, theres a little spread but they all miller A through northern GOM across big bend Florida and off on a NE heading GA /FL line slanting up the coast to a point about 50 miles se of Morehead. Actually think the ens on all 3 big boys gfs,can,euro look very similar. Euro op just needs to get its mess up in NE squared away with the confluence.

Beleive it was last Mon when the big zeroing in for today's storm showed itself on the euro op after its ens had been honking. So hopefully by 12z tommorow or 0z sun night the euro op will sound the alarm again

Man, if it works out its your thread for real! :) You've been all over this one.

Would be great if it's even close, heading to Boone on Thursday for the weekend.

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