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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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ukie looks interesting to say the least. I think that's a sub 545 5h low that's cut off over mobile, Alabama. Might be enough cold air to work with under that? 

 

Edit: These heights are WAY lower that what the GFS is showing, and even the GFS is marginally cold enough for us. (Both models also have this system coming through at the same time.) I'm gonna go out on a limb here based off the cruddy ukmet maps and say it's depicting an epic snow storm for most.

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Temps are going to be an issue, like always , whether we want to ignore them at this point or not. I've got low 50s forecast for Tues/Wed! :(

What's going to be your wind direction. If it's northerly cut 10 degrees off that. Remember we have a temporary glacier to our north. Also there is a lot of ice pack at our locations.

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Whew the Gefs and the Canadian are a beaut. Canadian is a Carolina pipe dream. If the euro and EPS hold the fort today, it's time to give this threat it's due. Eastern NC looks to do better on this one. Gonna be a fun one to track.

 

Your optimism is something else, bro.  :clap:

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Is there a cold high pressure anywhere in sight?

Yeah but the high moves out...we need to hope something can hold the high in place, or at least the models trending towards the high either staying longer or the storm speeding up. Not looking that great at the moment. 

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Wow, that seems shockingly high, all things considered, Jon. Five days out and with temperature issues at a head and yet a 30% chance at a decent storm here?

 

I don't think this current snowstorm had that 5 days out... but someone might have to check me on this.

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Well really we have a very strong signal for a miller A on allmodeling. The euro op holds things back the longest and crawls the storm and at the same time let's a GL low push our hp out of the way screwing up the confluence in the NE. Like jon said and I've heard another in the know poster state one trend that would go a long way to solve the temp issue is for the euro op to speed up like can, ukie gfs. Gonna get the storm and track is perfect for alot of us. As usual depends on how it gets timed. Maybe the big coastal going up the seaboard can lock in a 50/50 and hold up. Well see. The ens off the euro will be telling. Big thing to watch is the confluence trends in NE

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