Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah JB says could be BIG STORM coming up out the gulf next week riding up the coast ala March 1993 Similarities... on 500mb charts. HE IS NOT FORECASTING A SUPER STORM just trough and ridgesetc.... have that look for a big storm.... And a warm up for a while but FAB FEB is on the table...................... In my opinion any storm would have to EARN it's right to be compared to that storm. Not just for our area but for the eastern third of the country, that truly was a "storm of the century." That storm is in a category by itself as far as I am concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 @312 through 348 on the 12z GFS looks too good to be true.. The HP to the northeast looks way too strong (atleast to my amateur eyes) Indeed that is a thing of beauty but it may as well be a map for Jan 2032. Pure fantasy at that range. The 1039 H looks great to me though, that is what we want to see, and one of the ingredients we were missing for this storm to bring many of us into the snow game. Hopefully we'll have a couple more chances for a good SNOW (not ice) still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Indeed that is a thing of beauty but it may as well be a map for Jan 2032. Pure fantasy at that range. The 1039 H looks great to me though, that is what we want to see, and one of the ingredients we were missing for this storm to bring many of us into the snow game. Hopefully we'll have a couple more chances for a good SNOW (not ice) still to come. Nothing scientific to base this on but I think that the Southeast in general will have several more chances through Feb at least just that kind of year imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 @312 through 348 on the 12z GFS looks too good to be true.. The HP to the northeast looks way too strong (atleast to my amateur eyes) Eh, those storms don't exist anymore. Only in our imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nothing scientific to base this on but I think that the Southeast in general will have several more chances through Feb at least just that kind of year imo Oh, I agree. I really like the pattern we are in now, maybe the best pattern we have seen in years. Just gotta get the true cold here at just the right time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Interesting statement in today's 8-14 day outlook: FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE 500-HPA PATTERN, OFFSET BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC AIR TO ENTER THE LOWER 48 ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER NORTHEAST OF ALASKA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow, looks like I am right in the dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Let's just hope the LR models are wrong about a somewhat warm Feb. All I can say with the other stuff going on ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yea next Friday looks good on the Euro, but GFS shows NADA. Wouldn't get too excited yet. Couldn't be more different. Euro GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Euro and it's ensembles did very well with identifying and laying out the 5h from 5 days out for today's storm. Did a fantastic job. Now zeroing in on everyone's microclimate as far as qpf, warm nose not so well, but when does it. For me it. Insistently showed I would have mixing issues and I did. The qpf of 1.75+ is where it's gonna bust by probably .75 if not more. Anyway glad to see it sniffing this out with consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 18z GFS has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 18z GFS has it It pulls it through on Wednesday. EURO had it on Friday. GFS was very positively tilted and the EURO was slower and more vertical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Saw a post elsewhere about the UKMET depiction of the potential 5 day system... it looks a whole lot like 1973, no joking. Warmer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Saw a post elsewhere about the UKMET depiction of the potential 5 day system... it looks a whole lot like 1973, no joking. Warmer though. we need to some how get the good cold high pressure in a prime spot and it sit there for a while and have other cold highs replace it when it moves on. cold air needs to be firmly entrenched before the next storm and hope it is a true Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 we need to some how get the good cold high pressure in a prime spot and it sit there for a while and have other cold highs replace it when it moves on. cold air needs to be firmly entrenched before the next storm and hope it is a true Miller A Need a faster solution. A week system would easily tap the cold and draw it in behind the system . A later week system like euro wouldn't do anyone much good as temps will me moderating by then Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Here comes the GFS. Will we have a storm next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 18z GFS has it 18z looks like cold chasing rain for the Wed system. I then has two MONSTERS in early Feb but both are lakes cutters so waaaay too far North. Also has some fairly warm temps off an on during the first week of Feb. Last runs of the NAVGEM and Canadian also have the Wed system and look quite similar to the 18z GFS. All of them look like cold chasing rain to me. A good parent high also seems to be missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 18z looks like cold chasing rain for the Wed system. I then has two MONSTERS in early Feb but both are lakes cutters so waaaay too far North. Also has some fairly warm temps off an on during the first week of Feb. Last runs of the NAVGEM and Canadian also have the Wed system and look quite similar to the 18z GFS. All of them look like cold chasing rain to me. A good parent high also seems to be missing. CMC looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 oz GFS has a 994 low above the great lakes at hour 90 and a trailing finger of rain from Penn down the Apps spine to Brownsville TX. At 96 it give Northern NC/TN border a SWF flizzard, but that is it. Def a no go on the oz GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 0z Euro...hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The 00z Euro has a nice Miller A, except it's way too warm. I'm not sure how we can overcome that at this point. Not too enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The 00z Euro has a nice Miller A, except it's way too warm. I'm not sure how we can overcome that at this point. Not too enthused. 6z was close but continues to keep the precip right off the coast. One thing to remember, all we need is some kind of high to our north. There is a lot of snow from our location northward. If we get a northerly winds, temps will be colder. This sounds just like the 1996 situation; where 5 days after the big storm we ended up with an ice storm because of all the snow to the north. If the snow was not there we would have got rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Needs to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Euro might be under-estimating the CAD at this range. IF that high pressure can lock in a little longer it would be in perfect position. Plus you got the snow pack over virginia/New York that the cold air would be traveling over. EPS looks great. For those of you who have weatherbell. Check out the 132hr frame of the EPS low locations map. That's a great look, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Canadian ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 More banter than anything else, but I'm constrained to say I hope the long range models are a bit too warm ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 00z GEFS & 00z Canadian Ensembles both have members with a system off the coast next week. Temperatures are of course, a major issue for most. Canadian members have some Wintry/Mix scenarios... but as we know the Canadian models are generally too cold in most situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I've seen snowflakes on 5 different days this month. Quite the turnaround! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 More banter than anything else, but I'm constrained to say I hope the long range models are a bit too warm ...It is banter cause its been suppose to torch, according to some, for about the last 2 weeks, and I got 2" of torch in my back yard!Next week storm looks borderline . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 This week some folks are going to get in on the goods and possibly more than once. Odds strongly favor a true miller A perfect track by Thursday, but before then there is a great shot at some overruning. Alot of us have seen snow fall 3 seperate times in the span of 6 days. Next week has the potential to be as eventful as this past week and yes another big dog HECS is fixing to pop up on the menu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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