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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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Yeah JB says could be BIG STORM coming up out the gulf next week riding up the coast ala March 1993 Similarities... on 500mb charts. HE IS NOT FORECASTING A SUPER STORM just trough and ridgesetc.... have that look for a big storm.... And a warm up for a while but FAB FEB is on the table......................  

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Yeah JB says could be BIG STORM coming up out the gulf next week riding up the coast ala March 1993 Similarities... on 500mb charts. HE IS NOT FORECASTING A SUPER STORM just trough and ridgesetc.... have that look for a big storm.... And a warm up for a while but FAB FEB is on the table......................    

 

Can you imagine getting back to back big daddys: Tonight will be the 3rd time in 5 days it's snowed here. Ill study next week after I get done playing in the snow sunday night.

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Come on, you can't tease like that, care to elaborate Haven't looked at the models yet. For which areas do you think it gets interesting pray tell!

If (and only if) you're not under warning or severe threat, long range is an interesting question. I have mine.

 

But likely little input until ....

 

 

.... it warms up  :cry:

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On those maps you posted above, is that super strong low N of the Great Lakes , the polar vortex? That is a monster high over KY!! Never seen a high in that location with a strong low in the gulf!

 

3rd map for 00Z 1/29 has a great LP placement for MBY if temps are cold enough. H just north of Nashville though seems very odd. It is weak at 1017. Strange look to my untrained eyes.

 

On another note, today's GFS ensemble forecast for PNA, NAO, and AO look to improve in the LR. PNA stays +. AO spikes briefly + and then heads back negative. NAO spikeses slightly +, then heads back toward neutral/negative. Very good consistency among members.

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GSP Long Range for next week. Why not do it all over again?

AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE TENDS TO DIVERGE RATHER DRASTICALLY WITH

RESPECT TO THE GFS/CMC AS THEY COMPARE TO THE ECMWF. THE LATER OF

THE THREE SUGGESTS ANOTHER MILLER A COASTAL LOW RIDING UP THE EAST

COAST WITH CAD BEING REINFORCED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NC INTO THE

SC UPSTATE. THICKNESS PROFILES AT THAT TIME ON THE ECMWF WOULD

SUPPORT SOME WINTRY PTYPES AMIDST AMPLE QPF FOR ANOTHER ROUND

OF WINTER WX. ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHOWN RECENT CONSISTENCY OVER

ITS LAST TWO CYCLES...FAVORED THE GFS/CMC WITH THIS FCST WHICH

KEEPS ANY HIGH IMPACT WX OUTSIDE OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

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