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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


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I think the storm threat for late week has the attention of most folks here, but I did notice today's indices look better for the LR according to GFS ensembles.  PNA looks to stay positive. NAO looks to head toward neutral, but with more members trending negative in the LR. AO goes from deep negative now back toward neutral, but then most members back down into negative territory (some back to deep negative). Could be that the warm up next week is short lived.

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I thought there was a huge torch coming up after the late week system ?

Last half of December was a huge torch. Never heard legitimate thoughts or maps showing huge torch for next week. Warm up or relaxation, yes. However, it looks like the pattern may be showing signs of a brief, transient warm up and then back to a good pattern. Hopefully, an even better pattern for those of us in the deep south.

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Last half of December was a huge torch. Never heard legitimate thoughts or maps showing huge torch for next week. Warm up or relaxation, yes. However, it looks like the pattern may be showing signs of a brief, transient warm up and then back to a good pattern. Hopefully, an even better pattern for those of us in the deep south.

hopefully you are right and Feb will be our month in the deep south. It didn't work out so well last year for I-20 though. I'm afraid this winter may be like last winter.
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Lots of nice thoughts today; enjoy reading them as work time permits. Thanks, Folks.

Any maps anyone can post - can't dig deep today due to a massive deadline tomorrow.

Best,

Phil

I can't because I'm on my phone, but basically all three sets of ensembles show ridge west/trough east at d10. The AO looks to be negative in the LR. The GEFS bring a trough west/ridge east after d10, but I don't buy it. I'm happy with the look. The big warm-up keeps getting muted/pushed back, as it should. Feb is going to be decent, IMO.

Good luck with the deadline, sir!

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hopefully you are right and Feb will be our month in the deep south. It didn't work out so well last year for I-20 though. I'm afraid this winter may be like last winter.

 

You are correct about last year. Pattern got right late January and weather got cold but we were never cold enough when the storms came. I think we will be colder than average for Feb. and I am confident that the STJ will provide storms. Whether or not the storm track and the cold air combine to give of snow/ice this far south is more of a ? for me. I guess we could argue that is always the question for us in the winter.

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I can't because I'm on my phone, but basically all three sets of ensembles show ridge west/trough east at d10. The AO looks to be negative in the LR. The GEFS bring a trough west/ridge east after d10, but I don't buy it. I'm happy with the look. The big warm-up keeps getting muted/pushed back, as it should. Feb is going to be decent, IMO.

Good luck with the deadline, sir!

Yes, I was very happy to see a nice western Ridge on the ensembles in the long range. I really want the pna and EPO to get on our side for February. Get us some cold shots and maybe we can time one just right. The moisture will be there. We just have been too warm.

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Yes, I was very happy to see a nice western Ridge on the ensembles in the long range. I really want the pna and EPO to get on our side for February. Get us some cold shots and maybe we can time one just right. The moisture will be there. We just have been too warm.

Yeah exactly. Bring the cold over here, please!

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-Strong warming forecasted for the strat soon,10mb and 30mb zonal winds expected to nosedive but not a technical SSW yet.I think that's why I think the AO is forecasted to go back negative after this quick rise to neutral.

 

-MJO is forecasted to go COD soon.Long as it doesn't rage in 4/5/6 it won't warm much.

 

-West QBO/solar minimum is still a decent setup,actually January has been lower than December with flux.

 

Just my opinion.

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hopefully you are right and Feb will be our month in the deep south. It didn't work out so well last year for I-20 though. I'm afraid this winter may be like last winter.

  We need a gulf low.  Not an apps runner...not a clipper...not a Miller B that jumps over us...but a great tracking sure to goodness gulf low, with some cold enough air in place, and more coming down to refresh it, then a super freeze down after the freezing water stops.  Not asking too much..lol, which it why you and I have been on the outside looking in..unless you like zr, which I don't :)  T

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  We need a gulf low.  Not an apps runner...not a clipper...not a Miller B that jumps over us...but a great tracking sure to goodness gulf low, with some cold enough air in place, and more coming down to refresh it, then a super freeze down after the freezing water stops.  Not asking too much..lol, which it why you and I have been on the outside looking in..unless you like zr, which I don't :)  T

Aren't we always?  :hug:  :wub:   

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  We need a gulf low.  Not an apps runner...not a clipper...not a Miller B that jumps over us...but a great tracking sure to goodness gulf low, with some cold enough air in place, and more coming down to refresh it, then a super freeze down after the freezing water stops.  Not asking too much..lol, which it why you and I have been on the outside looking in..unless you like zr, which I don't :)  T

At least I have someone like you to share my misery with. Of course, I plan on being somewhere on Fri where it's actually snowing.

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