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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Good to hear.

DT already shared this, so I guess this is okay to post. DT is also honking the February 1983 analog.

post-9415-0-45506800-1453099566.jpg

For comparison purposes, here was the 12z Euro:

12419094_971795596201032_148502492786210

So, yeah, quite a shift. :lol:

Pittsburgh went from 36" to 2" in one run!!! :yikes:

Huge changes for sure! Don't know if it helps me or not, but there also was a place in PA , that went from 22-24" at 12z , to 0 at 00z!
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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

Could this trend even more south?

Absolutely Yes. I've seen many a warmups preceded by a winter storm, even this far in my region.

Many a winter storm in SC has had that Central sharp US ridge with a digging trough/cutoff low and not a classical PNA ridge. I can recall a few events offhand. One in Feb 1989 comes to mind.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Euro looks like it could be all snow for N.Foothills    1.33qpf

 

FRI 06Z 22-JAN -0.8 -2.3 1021 97 100 0.25 557 540

FRI 12Z 22-JAN -1.9 -0.9 1017 93 100 0.48 554 541

FRI 18Z 22-JAN -2.1 -2.0 1013 86 73 0.51 549 539

SAT 00Z 23-JAN -1.7 -2.1 1010 82 65 0.09 543 536 

 

Thickness looks good.. to remain snow.  Rates I would assume.. would be heavy... even if you happened to get to 1-1.5C at some point in the mid levels. which looks doubtful with those raw numbers.  12z Friday has a slight hint at some WAA... but still more than sufficient to stay snow.

 

Edit.. the first and second numbers after the date... are those 2m and then 850?  Like 06z Friday says -0.8 (2m?) and then -2.3 (850mb?)

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

Euro looks like it could be all snow for N.Foothills 1.33qpf

FRI 06Z 22-JAN -0.8 -2.3 1021 97 100 0.25 557 540

FRI 12Z 22-JAN -1.9 -0.9 1017 93 100 0.48 554 541

FRI 18Z 22-JAN -2.1 -2.0 1013 86 73 0.51 549 539

SAT 00Z 23-JAN -1.7 -2.1 1010 82 65 0.09 543 536

This will be all snow , no ice . There maybe somewhere along 85 but it will be a small area. This looks to be more of rain or snow storm

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NWNC2015

NWNC2015

Posted
Posted

Euro looks like it could be all snow for N.Foothills    1.33qpf

 

Very unlikely if you analyze the WunderMap temp on the EURO throughout the storm. Verbatim yes for the northern foothills, but there's no way an invisible magical force near Yadkinville will just hold off the waves of sleet/ip/zrain/??/zdrizzle (warm noses). It's always underplayed and you while you and me both are in a decent spot this is by no means at all an ideal location for all snow event unless further trends south occur with the cold air.

 

Bottom line I would like to see it colder for all.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Looks like the EPS is gonna pop the low/track it in an unfavorable spot for many in SC, GA, (maybe many in NC?)

 

Edit: IDK, comes across central ga, sc, off the coast in a cluster.  Only 2 members have a low very far South... and that is still over FL/GA border areas... 7 members might have had Winter weather into CAE... but eh.. just not far enough South.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Looks about the same as the 12z EPS to me, though maybe a bit faster. Not particularly good for most of us except N and NW NC and S VA, of course.

 

The mean tracks it across Central AL, Central GA, Central SC, seems across Eastern NC and goes right off the coast and starts to go boom..,. then pulls away as it gets stronger.  ATL, GSP, CAE, CLT screwed.  Im not sure if RDU can squeak something out.

 

Maybe Feb can produce something nice for us all in AL, GA, SC, NC.

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

I haven't been paying attention to the longer-range pattern look.. Noticed someone in the MA forum (I think Bob Chill?) had mentioned that many big storms like what is being shown comes on the heels of a -NAO breaking down. Is this the case?

There have been some big hitters when the -NAO is breaking down. It opens the door to allow storms to come up the coast versus out to sea.

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted

Blacksburg NWS put out a pretty good AFD earlier this morning -- Here's a snippet.

BELIEVE A LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO WEDGE DOWN EAST

OF THE APPALACHIANS AND KEEP LOW LEVEL COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE. THE

SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT UPWARD

VERTICAL MOTION AND INDUCE DYNAMIC COOLING. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE

TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND TIP THE SCALES MORE IN FAVOR OF A

SNOW EVENT WITH MIXED PTYPE A FACTOR VA/NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA.

STILL TOO EARLY FOR FURTHER DETAILS AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME BUT THIS

IS A SITUATION THAT BEARS SERIOUS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Euro looks like it could be all snow for N.Foothills 1.33qpf

FRI 06Z 22-JAN -0.8 -2.3 1021 97 100 0.25 557 540

FRI 12Z 22-JAN -1.9 -0.9 1017 93 100 0.48 554 541

FRI 18Z 22-JAN -2.1 -2.0 1013 86 73 0.51 549 539

SAT 00Z 23-JAN -1.7 -2.1 1010 82 65 0.09 543 536

Got a link for this biggie ? Thanks

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

GSP has a HWO for WNC and The Foothills for Friday And Saturday for the possibility for heavy snowfall, to stay tuned for updates. Possibly the Piedmont

For now the heavy snow wording is only for the mountain counties. Only a "snow possibility" for the foothills.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=HWOGSP&e=201601181105

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH keeping an eye on this system:

 

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... LIKELY DEVELOPING A CAD AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
NC. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THUS FOR NOW.... OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF MIX AT ONSET ON THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL LIMIT THE MENTION
OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED PIEDMONT/NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS STILL LOW). GIVEN THE
COOLING ALOFT AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EXPECTED DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW AND OR RAIN/SNOW MIXED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted 
..FRIDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMIS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE WESTERN NORTHCAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THEWAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ISEXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...COLDTEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATEDROADS AND BRIDGES.

From GSP,,,,HWO ----Also mentions the Foothills and Piedmont as well as the I-85 Corridor

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