Wow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 How does the high pressure position/strength look on gefs? Now positioned just north of NE, more expansive, a tad stronger. 1026mb is the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well well, we may have something here. Yep, getting that excited feeling. Can't wait to see the Euro. Based on the UK, I think that it will be in line with the other global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This right here would probably make a lot of folks happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The ensemble mean has a cutoff ULL... real support for this now That help with the temp issues that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Growing ensemble support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That's a HUGE spread once the low get offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 NC mtns and foothills looking real good at this point on the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Growing ensemble support... 1225.JPG I think we can trash #17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You guys might like the para gfs (18z).. crappy maps right now on my end... out to 114 on the mageval site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 00z Euro looks to be staying positively tilted longer and is not closing off as early at h5. Still not closed off at hr 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 00z Euro looks to be staying positively tilted longer and is not closing off as early at h5. That would be better for the SE yes? Especially NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 00z Euro looks to be staying positively tilted longer and is not closing off as early at h5.That's good for us right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Major winter storm for N NC on the 00z Euro. Crippling ice storm for the NC Piedmont and foothills, by the looks of it. Maybe some snow, as well. Lots of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 THis is a much better run for parts of the SE as well I see more parts of NC cold enough for Winter weather on my end. Interesting, further South I do think vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well, maybe we can get colder down into SC even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Solid run for us in Western NC. Look like widespread foot of snow in mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro snow map looks almost identical to Dec 2009. Tight gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Really matches up well with the GEFS track... C AL to C/S GA to Charleston, SC. EDIT: Actually, the Euro goes N of CHS, so a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Euro snow map looks almost identical to Dec 2009. Tight gradient Correct, although to the east of that gradient it is a major ice storm. I guess WeatherBell actually fixed their snow algorithms this year. They don't seem to be showing ZR on the clown maps, from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 850s look troublesome from Charlotte to RDU. Hope that doesn't mean ice storm for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 850s look troublesome from Charlotte to RDU. Hope that doesn't mean ice storm for us Verbatim, it's mostly rain for both, though we've seen the Euro underdo CAD at this time frame before (which might argue for a bit further south track, too?). The I-95 corridor gets raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 James is the low feeling the affects of the high pressure thus shunting it more south on the 0z run? I really feel like it's underdone the cad from the get go. That would be an amazing track for a bunch of people. I'm curious what the qpf output is on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 James is the low feeling the affects of the high pressure thus shunting it more south on the 0z run? I really feel like it's underdone the cad from the get go. That would be an amazing track for a bunch of people. I'm curious what the qpf output is on the euro. Looks like the low moves ESE from N/C AL to S SC. Kind of a weird track. I guess it's shunting around the CAD, but still. Looks like around 1.5" QPF in your area, 1.2" for GSO, and 2.5" for DCA... The NC mountains get hammered. However, it has moved east in that precip sharply cuts off northwest of DC, which is interesting. Not as good of a run for interior MD and VA (say, Winchester). The EPS will be interesting. We'll see if it shifts south at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 stormtracker is asking for euro precip products/wxbell euro stuff to not be posted btw. just letting everyone know. DO NOT POST WXBELL EURO PRODUCTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We have all seen it time and time again the models ramp up the qpf production and you start getting higher qpf totals as the event nears. 18z para GFS had 3" of liquid. That would be crippling to an area in any part of the mid Atlantic and southern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Correct, although to the east of that gradient it is a major ice storm. I guess WeatherBell actually fixed their snow algorithms this year. They don't seem to be showing ZR on the clown maps, from what I can tell. I believe the precipitation algorithm was significantly improved with the upgrade to the Euro last year. Better identifies areas of freezing rain, ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I believe the precipitation algorithm was significantly improved with the upgrade to the Euro last year. Better identifies areas of freezing rain, ice pellets. Good to hear. DT already shared this, so I guess this is okay to post. DT is also honking the February 1983 analog. For comparison purposes, here was the 12z Euro: So, yeah, quite a shift. Pittsburgh went from 36" to 2" in one run!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Could this trend even more south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So what does it look like(Snow or Ice? and amounts?) for Hickory NC? Live just west of there in Burke County NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Does that snow map include the midweek system ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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