Jonathan Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If the GEFS is right and we don't see snow by the 20th then we suck. From day 8 on it looks very active, western NC should get on the scoreboard for sure. Extending northeastward across the border? Eh? haha I'll look later. Onto work I go! 18z will be rockin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If the GEFS is right and we don't see snow by the 20th then we suck. From day 8 on it looks very active, western NC should get on the scoreboard for sure. I agree, the 12z GEFS looks good in the extended (through hr 264). There is a nice storm signal for the 16th-17th and it points to opportunity before that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yep guys, it's a better than avg pattern. It's not perfect, fail boat is always around the corner, but the potential is there. I want to see more and more amplification and blocked up atlantic out front. The southern energy is going to be there I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 1/5/16, 13:38 ECMWF 12z wastes 2'' of QPF on rain w/strong Nor'easter possible Sunday. And so she goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Euro really wanted to have something in the later hours. Close but not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Thee euro is firing warning shots IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Thee euro is firing warning shots IMHO I think the look of ridging holding out west (even rebuilding late in the run), the split flow underneath the ridging, the vortex in the northeast, and the non-terrible look around Greenland is a pretty good look. (although the NAO completely gives up by day 10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Day 7 on the euro was close, just sharpen up the trough and then another potential day 9... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Here's the Euro at 216. The PV (in red) is in a great spot to promote confluence over the NE US. It is prevented from rapidly escaping by the block (in blue) immediately to its east. There is energy in the flow in the southern and northern stream (green Xs). The PNA ridge (in black) remains in place. High pressure works in and tracks nicely across the northern tier. Will the energy interact? It wouldn't take many adjustments on this map to produce a major SE winter storm. One thing is certain on the Euro, it's showing a cold pattern from about D6 on. The SHAFT index is now at around a 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Day 7 on the euro was close, just sharpen up the trough and then another potential day 9... My hunch was the GFS squashing that wave at day 7 was its usual habit, but the Euro does too because the trof is simply too sharp in the east so the wave dives SE from TX and just dies, but if the models are overdoing how far south that cold push goes and the sharpness of the trof, day 7 could happen but it would be mostly an AL/MS/GA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Thee euro is firing warning shots IMHOAgree Delta. Nice post CR And TN. The North Atlantic ridge is nice. Unfortunately it doesn't rollover into classic -NAO, but the NCSNOW PNA index makes up for it supplying solid high pressure over the lakes. Plenty to like here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Another UKMet run with big NE bomb and large U.S. trough on the backside at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 12z eps is all about a gulf low next Thursday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Bastardi Update: HUGE US MODEL PROBLEMS OR COUP January 5 02:44 PM In the day 10-15, the US model goes right to the phase 7 warm in the east and it can be illustrated in no uncertain terms in looking at the Super Analog package. On day 8, the strongest analogs give this for temperatures : http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/huge-us-model-problems-or-coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 EPS has a cluster of about 7-9 lows within 100 miles of ILM on 12z 1/17. Furthest inland was over roughly laurinburg. All would be good looks for areas along and west of 77, at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Bastardi Update: HUGE US MODEL PROBLEMS OR COUP January 5 02:44 PM In the day 10-15, the US model goes right to the phase 7 warm in the east and it can be illustrated in no uncertain terms in looking at the Super Analog package. On day 8, the strongest analogs give this for temperatures : http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/huge-us-model-problems-or-coup Given we are in an El Nino I'd lean heavily towards the GFS being the wrong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Given we are in an El Nino I'd lean heavily towards the GFS being the wrong one. LOL, yeah that is almost a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 1/5/16, 14:43 Day 5 and 8 -- two major Arctic blasts. Weekend effects in Midwest ... then stronger event mid-next week. pic.twitter.com/ Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 1/5/16, 14:45 But no snow ... current ECMWF 12z shows nary a flake for DC or NYC next 10-days. Warming trend until next week. #ElNino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 18z was a swing and miss next Thursday what's on heels is sure to deliver the 18z goods Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 There she is on the 18z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Absolutely love the look at 228...plenty of cold air and our storm is suppressed down around Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Absolutely love the look at 228...plenty of cold air and our storm is suppressed down around Orlando. We will have to worry about suppression, but usually lows will not cross that far south. So I'm with you thinking this has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 We will have to worry about suppression, but usually lows will not cross that far south. So I'm with you thinking this has potential. If we're not worrying about suppression, we're just not doing it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm really beginning to feel the 16th-18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm really beginning to feel the 16th-18th. Yes. We all need that happen. It has been showing up nearly every run and has the potential to make a lot of us happy. What worries me is the positive tilt on the trough and not deep cold in place. Cold yes but not a 1050H centered over NE. Silly to even debate it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Amazing the GFS and euro both have a gulf low next Thursday and then of course goofy goes nuts two days later with a SE winter storm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Things look decent in about 10 days. First time all season it looks legitimate. Who knows if it has staying power but it certainly looks like there are opportunities on the horizon in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm really beginning to feel the 16th-18th. As they say in golf, feel isn't real. 18z was blocky, trapping the PV a bit there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 We will have to worry about suppression, but usually lows will not cross that far south. So I'm with you thinking this has potential. if it was a perfect track we would have 3 new pages of fantasy snow maps and most everyone would be scared to death of the NW trend over the next week. i've seen a lot of our big dogs modeled exactly like this 200+hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I would think if we got smacked on the 16-17 deal it would stay around for a while. No sun angle yet and plenty of modeled cold. Long way to go with this one. It would be cool if it stayed on the models from now on so each day we have something to track and build excitement for each forum as it moves north handing off the baton from GA to ME. What a weekend that would be. Wishful no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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