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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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If the GEFS is right and we don't see snow by the 20th then we suck. From day 8 on it looks very active, western NC should get on the scoreboard for sure.

I agree, the 12z GEFS looks good in the extended (through hr 264).  There is a nice storm signal for the 16th-17th and it points to opportunity before that time too.

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Here's the Euro at 216.  The PV (in red) is in a great spot to promote confluence over the NE US.  It is prevented from rapidly escaping by the block (in blue) immediately to its east.  There is energy in the flow in the southern and northern stream (green Xs).  The PNA ridge (in black) remains in place.

 

High pressure works in and tracks nicely across the northern tier.  Will the energy interact?  It wouldn't take many adjustments on this map to produce a major SE winter storm.  One thing is certain on the Euro, it's showing a cold pattern from about D6 on.  The SHAFT index is now at around a 2.

 

post-987-0-15943300-1452020869_thumb.jpg

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Day 7 on the euro was close, just sharpen up the trough and then another potential day 9...

 

My hunch was the GFS squashing that wave at day 7 was its usual habit, but the Euro does too because the trof is simply too sharp in the east so the wave dives SE from TX and just dies, but if the models are overdoing how far south that cold push goes and the sharpness of the trof, day 7 could happen but it would be mostly an AL/MS/GA event.

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Bastardi Update:

 

HUGE US MODEL PROBLEMS OR COUP
January 5 02:44 PM
 
In the day 10-15, the US model goes right to the phase 7 warm in the east and it can be illustrated in no uncertain terms in looking at the Super Analog package. On day 8, the strongest analogs give this for temperatures :
 
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Bastardi Update:

 

HUGE US MODEL PROBLEMS OR COUP
January 5 02:44 PM
 
In the day 10-15, the US model goes right to the phase 7 warm in the east and it can be illustrated in no uncertain terms in looking at the Super Analog package. On day 8, the strongest analogs give this for temperatures :
 

 

 

Given we are in an El Nino I'd lean heavily towards the GFS being the wrong one.

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Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

1/5/16, 14:43

Day 5 and 8 -- two major Arctic blasts. Weekend effects in Midwest ... then stronger event mid-next week. pic.twitter.com/

iRjSQj5.jpg

XtBfEqF.jpg

Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

1/5/16, 14:45

But no snow ... current ECMWF 12z shows nary a flake for DC or NYC next 10-days. Warming trend until next week. #ElNino

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I'm really beginning to feel the 16th-18th.

Yes. We all need that happen. It has been showing up nearly every run and has the potential to make a lot of us happy. What worries me is the positive tilt on the trough and not deep cold in place. Cold yes but not a 1050H centered over NE. Silly to even debate it at this point.

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We will have to worry about suppression, but usually lows will not cross that far south. So I'm with you thinking this has potential. 

if it was a perfect track we would have 3 new pages of fantasy snow maps and most everyone would be scared to death of the NW trend over the next week.  i've seen a lot of our big dogs modeled exactly like this 200+hrs out.  

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I would think if we got smacked on the 16-17 deal it would stay around for a while. No sun angle yet and plenty of modeled cold. Long way to go with this one. It would be cool if it stayed on the models from now on so each day we have something to track and build excitement for each forum as it moves north handing off the baton from GA to ME. What a weekend that would be. Wishful no doubt.

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