SeVa Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z Hires GFS. Has that NoVa/MD Feb 6, 2010 look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 eps snow probs are intriguing for nc to say the least. Care to be more specific on location Dopp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Care to be more specific on location Dopp?I think they were 50-60% chance at greater than an inch, for most of NC!I was at 40-50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think they were 50-60% chance at greater than an inch, for most of NC! I was at 40-50% Most of N NC was over 80% of >6" and a lot of the state was around 40-50% chance of >6". Pretty excellent stuff for 4-5 days out, IMO. Interesting Hi-Res GFS map. If we're going to get another DC Snowmaggedon, then I at least hope MBY can reel in another 2-4" front-end thump like last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Most of N NC was over 80% of >6" and a lot of the state was around 50% chance of >6". Pretty excellent stuff for 4-5 days out, IMO. Interesting Hi-Res GFS map. If we're going to get another DC Snowmaggedon, then I at least hope MBY can reel in another 2-4" front-end thump like last time. Seems the GFS is the only one that has it north of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Those two images are of the 06z GFS and 12z GFS. 12z 18z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ill take them odds Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah I saw a map earlier that even gave north Myrtle beach the 1-10% chance at greater than 6in. That surprised me. If all I wants an inch, hopefully something can deliver out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z and again.... Those are 06z and 12z lol 18z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk those are 06z and 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z and again.... Those are 06z and 12z lol 18z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah I don't why I'm pulling them from American it's like they are a run behind Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks south to me 12z 18z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk A bit after that I think the 12z had it off the South Carolina coast and the 18z had it further north than that by a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah I saw a map earlier that even gave north Myrtle beach the 1-10% chance at greater than 6in. That surprised me. If all I wants an inch, hopefully something can deliver out of this! You'd like EPS member 44. It is suppressed and crushes E SC and SE NC. No snow even up this way. There's also a couple EPS members with no storm, so that possibility is there. As far as the GEFS debate, the 18z was more suppressed than the 12z run... which you'd expect given the southward shift in the op GFS. Of course, we roll the dice again here in a couple hours, so it will all be different again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol while that does sound amazing, I'd be happy with an inch. 2-3 at most. I'd rather see all of sc and nc get a nice couple inches than one small area have a 6 inch dream storm. Call me snow socialist I suppose lol. Distribute the wealth. And thank you for the map and info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If you are going to quote posts with images please take a moment to remove them. About 1/3 of this page was quoted GFS ens images, it adds unnecessarily to the page count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Most of the ens have nasty warm advection from the gulf. If we get a Miller B setup, then our best shot would be with the comma head. But again, the track is highly uncertain. Can't really worry about temps if you don't even know the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Whatever falls won't be around long, It warms up a good bit afterward. Thanks for the buzz-kill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Most of the ens have nasty warm advection from the gulf. If we get a Miller B setup, then our best shot would be with the comma head. But again, the track is highly uncertain. Can't really worry about temps if you don't even know the track.Could get icy , if we get a wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Most of the ens have nasty warm advection from the gulf. If we get a Miller B setup, then our best shot would be with the comma head. But again, the track is highly uncertain. Can't really worry about temps if you don't even know the track. Yeah the track is still uncertain for sure, I don't think it will be a Miller B though, just a inland low transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah the track is still uncertain for sure, I don't think it will be a Miller B though, just a inland low transfer. How does that work exactly Jon? Not really familiar with one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Robert's starting to pimp up the ice storm potential for the CAD regions on his site......should be a fun week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Robert's starting to pimp up the ice storm potential for the CAD regions on his site......should be a fun week. That's Georgia I presume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Could get icy , if we get a wedge Man, it's been forever since we had a bad ice storm. We are due for one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How does that work exactly Jon? Not really familiar with one of those. Not sure of the cyclogenesis mechanism, actually..I've just seen it with past systems so I use that wording. All I know is there's not two distinct low pressure centers, just one...so it's not a Classic Miller B, but more of a hybrid. Maybe someone with more meteorological experience can touch on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Current WPC maps. Looks like more of a southern track that might work out for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not sure of the cyclogenesis mechanism, actually..I've just seen it with past systems so I use that wording. All I know is there's not two distinct low pressure centers, just one...so it's not a Classic Miller B, but more of a hybrid. Maybe someone with more meteorological experience can touch on it. Miller A/B. Not as common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Robert's starting to pimp up the ice storm potential for the CAD regions on his site......should be a fun week. Interesting. My current analog for this system is Dec 4-5, 2002. Most people in Central NC probably remember that system...we are a long way away from that, but if the high pressure in Canada trends more south (say NYC), we'd be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Interesting. My current analog for this system is Dec 4-5, 2002. Most people in Central NC probably remember that system...we are a long way away from that, but if the high pressure in Canada trends more south (say NYC), we'd be in trouble.Not out of the realms of possibilities , the high would be more south, if the storm was more south !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not sure of the cyclogenesis mechanism, actually..I've just seen it with past systems so I use that wording. All I know is there's not two distinct low pressure centers, just one...so it's not a Classic Miller B, but more of a hybrid. Maybe someone with more meteorological experience can touch on it. Yeah, think I've seen it more frontal with respect to general east-west air masses where as a front progresses across the continent with a leading LP and a trailing gulfesque low on it there is a northeast merge. That's layman on my part though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That WPC map is crazy, but it doesn't look threatening to me. Looks rainy. High in Canada isn't going to cut it, neither is a low in central GA. Just need to plan a trip to Roanoke I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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