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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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I think they were 50-60% chance at greater than an inch, for most of NC!

I was at 40-50%

Most of N NC was over 80% of >6" and a lot of the state was around 40-50% chance of >6". Pretty excellent stuff for 4-5 days out, IMO.

Interesting Hi-Res GFS map. If we're going to get another DC Snowmaggedon, then I at least hope MBY can reel in another 2-4" front-end thump like last time.

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Most of N NC was over 80% of >6" and a lot of the state was around 50% chance of >6". Pretty excellent stuff for 4-5 days out, IMO.

Interesting Hi-Res GFS map. If we're going to get another DC Snowmaggedon, then I at least hope MBY can reel in another 2-4" front-end thump like last time.

Seems the GFS is the only one that has it north of NC.

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Yeah I saw a map earlier that even gave north Myrtle beach the 1-10% chance at greater than 6in. That surprised me. If all I wants an inch, hopefully something can deliver out of this!

You'd like EPS member 44. It is suppressed and crushes E SC and SE NC. No snow even up this way.  There's also a couple EPS members with no storm, so that possibility is there.

 

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As far as the GEFS debate, the 18z was more suppressed than the 12z run... which you'd expect given the southward shift in the op GFS.  Of course, we roll the dice again here in a couple hours, so it will all be different again soon.

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Most of the ens have nasty warm advection from the gulf. If we get a Miller B setup, then our best shot would be with the comma head. But again, the track is highly uncertain. Can't really worry about temps if you don't even know the track. 

Yeah the track is still uncertain for sure, I don't think it will be a Miller B though, just a inland low transfer.

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How does that work exactly Jon? Not really familiar with one of those.

Not sure of the cyclogenesis mechanism, actually..I've just seen it with past systems so I use that wording. All I know is there's not two distinct low pressure centers, just one...so it's not a Classic Miller B, but more of a hybrid. Maybe someone with more meteorological experience can touch on it.

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Not sure of the cyclogenesis mechanism, actually..I've just seen it with past systems so I use that wording. All I know is there's not two distinct low pressure centers, just one...so it's not a Classic Miller B, but more of a hybrid. Maybe someone with more meteorological experience can touch on it.

Miller A/B. Not as common.

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Robert's starting to pimp up the ice storm potential for the CAD regions on his site......should be a fun week.

Interesting. My current analog for this system is Dec 4-5, 2002. Most people in Central NC probably remember that system...we are a long way away from that, but if the high pressure in Canada trends more south (say NYC), we'd be in trouble.

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Interesting. My current analog for this system is Dec 4-5, 2002. Most people in Central NC probably remember that system...we are a long way away from that, but if the high pressure in Canada trends more south (say NYC), we'd be in trouble.

Not out of the realms of possibilities , the high would be more south, if the storm was more south !?
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Not sure of the cyclogenesis mechanism, actually..I've just seen it with past systems so I use that wording. All I know is there's not two distinct low pressure centers, just one...so it's not a Classic Miller B, but more of a hybrid. Maybe someone with more meteorological experience can touch on it.

Yeah, think I've seen it more frontal with respect to general east-west air masses where as a front progresses across the continent with a leading LP and a trailing gulfesque low on it there is a northeast merge. That's layman on my part though.

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