cbmclean Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 what are you talking about ? The nc mtns will probably be buried under feet of snow this week. Fair point. I was defining "southeast" as lowlands, south of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z dgex Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro vs GFS again. Euro looks better for more of NC and further south. GFS is more north but jumped further south the last run. Who folds this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yep, the GFS slid the low east rather than cutting it up west of the Apps that run. Seems to be trending towards it's ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Let NOVA rake in all these big runs at day 5--you know it isn't going to turn out that way at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Congrats Va. Wedge looks sick! High in a good spot! Models not seeing strength of CAD, and trending torwards Euro, game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 A setup like that at h5 where the low goes from ILM to Hatteras and explodes is a recipe for feet and imho further south than DC, where it maxes. It will enhance the cold on the west side of the storm. Warm gulf waters off NC coast and a system undergoing bombogenesis will be amazing. I'm getting excited now. Hopefully it holds and more of NC folks can get in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Duke Power snow shield looks to be operating well over South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Interesting post by meteorologist WxUSAF over in the Mid-Atlantic subforum with regards to trends: If I had to put money down, I'd say suppression was still the biggest threat to warning-level snow (more so than a cutter and mixing). As Ian reminds us, suppression is a superNino habit. If that weak s/w midweek blows up more of it the northern stream s/w (that phases on the 18z GFS) gets bigger, maybe one of those squashes the southern s/w. That's what happened today, so maybe it's just a recency bias talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 James, with an h5 like that it is going to go boom. Do I dare say rates around my area and for the mountains of NC along with qpf are underdone? We'll see. I wonder if the warm Gulf and Atlantic might help, too, though I suppose the modeling already faked into account SSTs. One thing is that it seems like some of the modeling is crashing the surface low into some CAD, which seems unlikely to happen, IMO (but something I don't think models handle well in the LR). I would expect to see the surface low get shoved around the CAD (hopefully to the south). Looks like this is going to be a big storm for someone. Hopefully, it's a big storm for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just a heads up... I strongly suggest that fellow snow weenies should consider chasing this event. Preparation might need to start tomorrow by asking your boss for friday off. If you can take off friday, Southern Virginia is only a 3 to 6 hour drive for most of us on this board. You could leave Thursday night and experience the whole event, the roads should be decent by Sunday for the commute back. I've sat on the sidelines far too many years and regretted it. I am putting the wheels in motion tomorrow and will not miss this event if it's going to be epic and within driving distance. (Heck, I might even fly into D.C. on thursday if I have to!) Worst case, if the storms looks like a bust towards the end of the week.. you'll have a long weekend to go do something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just a heads up... I strongly suggest that fellow snow weenies should consider chasing this event. Preparation might need to start tomorrow by asking your boss for friday off. If you can take off friday, Southern Virginia is only a 3 to 6 hour drive for most of us on this board. You could leave Thursday night and experience the whole event, the roads should be decent by Sunday for the commute back. I've sat on the sidelines far too many years and regretted it. I am putting the wheels in motion tomorrow and will not miss this event if it's going to be epic and within driving distance. (Heck, I might even fly into D.C. on thursday if I have to!) Worst case, if the storms looks like a bust towards the end of the week.. you'll have a long weekend to go do something else. I made a mistake by trying to chase todays non event but I'm hoping to make up for it this week. I get off work at 8pm thurs and don't go back until sun afternoon so this would be good timing for me. Unfortunately southern Virginia is a much longer drive for me. I'm hoping for something a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Congrats Va. Were this a cutoff ULL this track right over the upstate would be nice, in this case it is a cruel tease. If it is this strong though, someone's gonna get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Whatever falls won't be around long, It warms up a good bit afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z Big 3 ens means, H5 anomaly at 144hrs. gfsens.png ggemens.png ecmwfens.png ECWMF ens mean about 150m deeper than the other two. Not really sure I buy the Miller B just yet as the primary storm track is not coming through the central plains/OH Valley. This looks more like a LP coming out of the western Gulf. Granted, it certainly could make a run at the TN Valley with the transfer taking place over the Carolina's/VA. That would fit a B type deal kind of, but it could also be just a strong primary taking a more inland track through the SE (UKMET) and offshore around the VA Capes. Plenty of time here, should be fun... If it takes this track and takes its time , back west of I-85 will get buried with heavy wet snow. The type of snow that takes lots of trees and power lines down with it. We will see lot of changes in the computer models. But what i do take out of this is a big dog looks possible, and it might be a big dog on the severe side more than wintry side when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Whatever falls won't be around long, It warms up a good bit afterward. that's the kind of snow I like. Get a huge snow that melts within a couple days. Snow followed by warmth. Best of both worlds !!! Plus if you are snow chasing you aren't stuck for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 18z GFS ensembles are north of 12z but slightly further south than the 18z op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 that's the kind of snow I like. Get a huge snow that melts within a couple days. Snow followed by warmth. Best of both worlds !!! Plus if you are snow chasing you aren't stuck for a week. The secret to that is not to chase on a big wheel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The secret to that is not to chase on a big wheel. Did I mention the beast has a 4 inch lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 eps snow probs are intriguing for nc to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 18z NAVGEM is much further south and weaker (no big storm for the Mid-Atlantic). Not that I trust the NAVGEM, but anything is on the table still. And, yeah, the EPS snow probabilities are pants-tightening stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is there any chance that CAD with this storm could be stronger than progged and even the N ATL 'Burbs could get in on something wintry or are we guaranteed a cold rain here? Sorry if this is considered an IMBY question but just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Duke Power snow shield looks to be operating well over South Carolina. Well if that high to the north stays there and gets stronger, we could very well get a MAJOR ice storm in the CAD area from Athens GA through the GSP metro and up to Charlotte. We are certainly overdue for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wedge looks sick! High in a good spot! Models not seeing strength of CAD, and trending torwards Euro, game on! High needs to be farther south and stronger. We're close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Let NOVA rake in all these big runs at day 5--you know it isn't going to turn out that way at this range. Yeah. We are smiling now but we all know how this story goes. Can't always trust a Euro/GFS consnesus. We'll see come Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 18z GFS ensembles are north of 12z but slightly further south than the 18z op.Looks south to me 12z 18z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 High needs to be farther south and stronger. We're close.Think I read somewhere that 18z had a stronger high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is there any chance that CAD with this storm could be stronger than progged and even the N ATL 'Burbs could get in on something wintry or are we guaranteed a cold rain here? Sorry if this is considered an IMBY question but just wondering. Nothing is guaranteed this far out but it would take some big shifts (south) to get ATL in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks south to me 12z 18z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Those two images are of the 06z GFS and 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nothing is guaranteed this far out but it would take some big shifts (south) to get ATL in the game. Yeah, probably just grasping on straws this far south, although when people say ATL I always visualize the airport which is the snow/ice-less airport of the south it seems. Maybe February will treat the deep south better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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