mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I understand positive thinking and all, but I just think anyone in the upstate looking for snow this week is setting themselves up for disappointment. This morning was the best set up of the 3 and still didn't have either the cold or the moisture for it to work. Tuesday system does not look to have any precip and Friday system doesn't have any cold. Yes it is possible for the models to show a big S trend between now and then but how many winter systems does that happen with around here? We might win the lottery between now and then too but don't get your hopes up. I really hope Fab Feb comes in and I think we may actually have a possibility or two the first week of March with the very strong Nino declining. The cold should continue coming farther south over the next few weeks but the old cold-dry and warm-wet is the norm and this year is no exception. Mtns will get a couple big dogs this year and probably north of I-40 folks will see some fun, but I'm afraid this will be a long frustrating winter for the rest of us. Most of the sytems we will have a "chance" with will mirror this mornings - stying to struggle to get temps down to low-mid 30s and hoping for big time rates. The true cold overrunning events like Jan 88 and Jan 11 just don't come around very often.If you think today was the best shot of the 3, you are dead wrong! From 7 days ago, or whenever this storm showed on models, temps were too warm for us and never waffled, and that's what burned us, we got the precip! Wednesday I'm not expecting anything, but if we get moisture, we will have some cold air already established, even if it's retreating and could see a flake or sleet pellet! Friday looks very iffy, but the slight trends south are encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you think today was the best shot of the 3, you are dead wrong! From 7 days ago, or whenever this storm showed on models, temps were too warm for us and never waffled, and that's what burned us, we got the precip! Wednesday I'm not expecting anything, but if we get moisture, we will have some cold air already established, even if it's retreating and could see a flake or sleet pellet! Friday looks very iffy, but the slight trends south are encouraging Difference in opinion I guess. This mornings was never a great shot for us, but then again, great shots are almost unheard of for us. We knew both cold and moisture would be iffy, but there was some ingredients to work with. Tue/Wed "system" looks to be dry and next weekends looks to be way too warm and hoping for a bigger farther push of cold to make it work is a chase that is almost certain to come up empty. As it looks now, we'll only have one of the 2 ingredients with each of the next two systems. That will not get it done. This time, though iffy, we had both ingredients to at least work with. Could one of them trend in our favor and us see some token flakes or even a surprise snow; of course. But that is highly unlikely. So I feel this morning was our best chance this week, as poor as it was. I am hopeful though that Feb will bring us some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Raleigh with a 4 inch mean . Image from wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Raleigh with a 4 inch mean . Image from wxbell Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk yeah, as i mentioned handful of big dogs on the individual members. 6-7 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Mean here is still the same. Boone is up to 12 on the mean and op. Hopefully this stays south of us as I would chase to 6000' if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 EPS looks good, but everything else is further north. Need it to come south a bit, and usually it trends more north as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What would be the mechanism to shift everything south? Even the Euro ensembles are too far north in my opinion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What would be the mechanism to shift everything south? Even the Euro ensembles are too far north in my opinion... An underrated high pressure for sure would help to squash the track. Dense air will not allow the low to travel as far, moreso the primary in that instance. Better position for the secondary to form further south in turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 What would be the mechanism to shift everything south? Even the Euro ensembles are too far north in my opinion... less phasing with the PJ would keep the storm south. With less of a strong 50/50 low, this storm can pull north easier. The STJ and PJ need to stay separate until the storm moves east of the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Although I am never so foolish as to completely discount any reasonable possibilities, My scan of these forums and the NWS website lead me to believe the probabilities are strongly against any significant southeast snow this week. Furthermore there are disquieting rumblings of a potential warm-up next week. What do the long range models say about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Dgex went bonkers... Looks like it would bury NC/VA with several feet. Upper low occludes and spins over eastern NC for a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Dgex went bonkers... Looks like it would bury NC/VA with several feet. Upper low occludes and spins over eastern NC for a day or so. Ok, you gotta at least post a snow map of that, even though it will never verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Although I am never so foolish as to completely discount any reasonable possibilities, My scan of these forums and the NWS website lead me to believe the probabilities are strongly against any significant southeast snow this week. Furthermore there are disquieting rumblings of a potential warm-up next week. What do the long range models say about that? Is that rhetorical? If not - warm and zonal on most that I see. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ But a word of caution one way or another - my local NWS has bombed every day this week on both temps, and precip; if an official 24/48 local can't be right, who the heck knows 5, 10, 15 days out ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Although I am never so foolish as to completely discount any reasonable possibilities, My scan of these forums and the NWS website lead me to believe the probabilities are strongly against any significant southeast snow this week. Furthermore there are disquieting rumblings of a potential warm-up next week. What do the long range models say about that? what are you talking about ? The nc mtns will probably be buried under feet of snow this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ok, you gotta at least post a snow map of that, even though it will never verify. I was hoping somebody else would.. lol. I always look at the DGEX on e-wall and they don't have a clown map there. Edit: I just added up the precip totals around Roanoke, Va.. and it looks like the Dgex is showing between 4 and 5 inches of liquid... all of which is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z Big 3 ens means, H5 anomaly at 144hrs. ECWMF ens mean about 150m deeper than the other two. Not really sure I buy the Miller B just yet as the primary storm track is not coming through the central plains/OH Valley. This looks more like a LP coming out of the western Gulf. Granted, it certainly could make a run at the TN Valley with the transfer taking place over the Carolina's/VA. That would fit a B type deal kind of, but it could also be just a strong primary taking a more inland track through the SE (UKMET) and offshore around the VA Capes. Plenty of time here, should be fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That 18z DGEX run was just stupid. No way it goes down like that. Anyways, the 18z GFS is further south. SW VA gets hammered. A bit too warm for N NC. DC is getting obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I was hoping somebody else would.. lol. I always look at the DGEX on e-wall and they don't have a clown map there. Edit: I just added up the precip totals around Roanoke, Va.. and it looks like the Dgex is showing between 4 and 5 inches of liquid... all of which is snow. Looks like it hammers the mountains and VA. Triangle is the screwzone, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ok, you gotta at least post a snow map of that, even though it will never verify. Delivered! Total I95 corridor crush job in NC/VA but fringes PHL/NYC/BOS which is funny. Well, it also fringes the Triangle but still funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Delivered! Total I95 corridor crush job in NC/VA but fringes PHL/NYC/BOS which is funny. Well, it also fringes the Triangle but still funny. That is the 06z DGEX. The 18z run is a lot different and totally ridiculous. The clown map isn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Delivered! Total I95 corridor crush job in NC/VA but fringes PHL/NYC/BOS which is funny. Well, it also fringes the Triangle but still funny. that's a lot of snow even near Wilmington, NC !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GFS is an apps runner Friday. Huh?? Dude, it's much further south and transfers energy in a prime spot for a hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Huh?? Dude, it's much further south and transfers energy in a prime spot for a hecs Looks like a DC bullseye with 20-25". Wow. About a 24-hour storm up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GFS is an apps runner Friday. Need to leave the pbp to the pbp'ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Need to leave the pbp to the pbp'ers. Settle down... I didn't fresh to 18z. I made a mistake, golly gee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like a DC bullseye with 20-25". Wow. About a 24-hour storm up there. how's it looking for the west Jefferson area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Congrats Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Congrats Va. looks pretty good for parts of TN and KY too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Is that rhetorical? If not - warm and zonal on most that I see. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ But a word of caution one way or another - my local NWS has bombed every day this week on both temps, and precip; if an official 24/48 local can't be right, who the heck knows 5, 10, 15 days out ..... No it wasn't rhetorical; I was really wanting to know. I hope it is transient. I will say that I will take zonal over a huge ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like a DC bullseye with 20-25". Wow. About a 24-hour storm up there.James, with an h5 like that it is going to go boom. Do I dare say rates around my area and for the mountains of NC along with qpf are underdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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