BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 4m4 minutes ago 12z ECMWF is a monster snowstorm for NC mountains and Virginia north. For NC ice for N Foothills/Nw piedmont. some ice to rain RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Which one is 12z today? The one on bottom looks south and has way better cad! Hope it's 12z Top run is 12z GFS, bottom is 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 4m4 minutes ago Again, still 4-5 days out. GFS/GGEM are warmer/further north. This is classic system where I trust Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ice could also be an issue in the foothills this run due to the fact the euro keeps 2m temps in the low 30's for a big portion of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Huh? I'm not sure what you're getting at but my point is a surface low riding up central Tennessee into ky will flood the mid levels with warm air. The only way this works is for a ukie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Disc, Where's the xfer to the coastal there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I take the Euro run! I'll take possible sleet and ice in this dumpster fire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm not sure what you're getting at but my point is a surface low riding up central Tennessee into ky will flood the mid levels with warm air. The only way this works is for a ukie solution. gfs_t850_ma_19.png You were saying it was a huge jump towards the GFS -- It's not even close to the GFS at this point. 850mb temps at the same time is completely different as well as the whole evolution of the system. 12z Euro brings the low into C TN (not even KY) and transfer to the NC/SC coastline. The GFS takes the low into W KY and slowly transfer to the NC/VA coastline around Norfolk before sliding out to sea. For comparison, here is the 850 temps from the Euro. I think you are dismissing this too soon. The mountains still get crushed and even the foothills are teetering on a good snow from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z gefs way south of op in GA off SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z gefs way south of op in GA off SC coast This is a long ways from giving up on..... Could be a nice winter storm for a lot in the SE? or Just the use to rainstorm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This is a long ways from giving up on..... Could be a nice winter storm for a lot in the SE? or Just the use to rainstorm!!! Agreed. Be mid week before it gets settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You were saying it was a huge jump towards the GFS -- It's not even close to the GFS at this point. 850mb temps at the same time is completely different as well as the whole evolution of the system. 12z Euro brings the low into C TN (not even KY) and transfer to the NC/SC coastline. The GFS takes the low into W KY and slowly transfer to the NC/VA coastline around Norfolk before sliding out to sea. For comparison, here is the 850 temps from the Euro. I think you are dismissing this too soon. The mountains still get crushed and even the foothills are teetering on a good snow from the Euro. I'm not dismissing it. It's not a good sign that the euro wants to miller b. I am really hoping this stays a solid miller a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z gefs way south of op in GA off SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The JMA and NAVGEM are further south, along with the UKMET, FWIW. EDIT: The GGEM ENS mean is also much further south, although I'm not sure if you should ever really look at the GGEM ENS. I am thinking this might be more likely an icy situation rather than a snowy one for the CAD areas, though. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Only models that were north were the CMC and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z EPS is more south than the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Eps way south of op Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Eps way south of op Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk how south? I'm only out to 84 on wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 how south? I'm only out to 84 on wxbell Way might have been the wrong word looks like central Georgia on the SV mean Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty similar to the 00z run, maybe a bit better going by the snowfall map. It does seem to favor a Miller B, though. Just need to hope the transfer happens early enough if that's the road we go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow mean Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 A handful of big dogs for NC on the 12z EPS individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty similar to the 00z run, maybe a bit better going by the snowfall map. It does seem to favor a Miller B, though. Just need to hope the transfer happens early enough if that's the road we go down. Hate wasting qpf on ip/zr but man they can be fun so long as I don't lose power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 eps_slp_lows_east_22.png None of those low locations are going to do much good for clt imo. This seems to be a Mid-Atlantic stormy now. Miller A coastal seems to be off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not a bad run of EPS for WNC/VA folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 None of those low locations are going to do much good for clt imo. This seems to be a Mid-Atlantic stormy now. Miller A coastal seems to be off the table. Nothing is off the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The JMA and NAVGEM are further south, along with the UKMET, FWIW. EDIT: The GGEM ENS mean is also much further south, although I'm not sure if you should ever really look at the GGEM ENS. I am thinking this might be more likely an icy situation rather than a snowy one for the CAD areas, though. Hope I am wrong. We are due for an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not a bad run of EPS for WNC/VA folks. if we can get the track of the eps mean or a little farther south when it goes thru the gulf states it would be great! Funny the eps mean looks just like the ukie and jma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No need to throw in the towel yet. The ukmet takes a surface low from columbus, GA to just off Cape Hatteras. It also pinches off a sub 540 low through the carolinas. Definitely nothing like the GFS. Also, the Navy model is way south of the GFS, and would imply a nice CAD hit for NC and maybe SC. I understand positive thinking and all, but I just think anyone in the upstate looking for snow this week is setting themselves up for disappointment. This morning was the best set up of the 3 and still didn't have either the cold or the moisture for it to work. Tuesday system does not look to have any precip and Friday system doesn't have any cold. Yes it is possible for the models to show a big S trend between now and then but how many winter systems does that happen with around here? We might win the lottery between now and then too but don't get your hopes up. I really hope Fab Feb comes in and I think we may actually have a possibility or two the first week of March with the very strong Nino declining. The cold should continue coming farther south over the next few weeks but the old cold-dry and warm-wet is the norm and this year is no exception. Mtns will get a couple big dogs this year and probably north of I-40 folks will see some fun, but I'm afraid this will be a long frustrating winter for the rest of us. Most of the sytems we will have a "chance" with will mirror this mornings - stying to struggle to get temps down to low-mid 30s and hoping for big time rates. The true cold overrunning events like Jan 88 and Jan 11 just don't come around very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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