BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I like where we at at this time by the maps Mark posted! Plenty of time for changes, just hope the GFS switches into Euro camp! I'll take 00z Euro, Looks like mostly snow or maybe mix! Close call but I'll take my chances this far out, and hope it holds and trends better.... 1.31qpf FRI 00Z 22-JAN 1.9 -0.9 1023 82 82 0.01 561 542FRI 06Z 22-JAN 0.3 -0.9 1022 98 96 0.26 559 541FRI 12Z 22-JAN -0.5 0.0 1019 96 99 0.36 557 542FRI 18Z 22-JAN -1.1 1.5 1015 89 99 0.55 554 542SAT 00Z 23-JAN -1.4 0.7 1012 88 31 0.13 549 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No maps from the Euro? It seems we don't ever have play by plays and specifics on the model runs anymore. On that run of the Euro, light snow breaks out in the Northern Mountains of NC at hour 132. Then by 144 the northern mountains are getting obliterated while a streak of light to moderate snow about 30 miles south of the Virginia border extended about half way across the state from West to East. By 150 it's headed out of Northern Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Jim Cantore @JimCantore 41m41 minutes ago ...Obviously its early in the game but here are the 00z EURO ens. and the 06z GFS ens. valid 1am next Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This looks like a near miss for the Triangle in NC. A lot of agreement on models coming together on that miss too. Hard to see a southeast trend with retreating air mass in late week. Maybe more of a NW trend actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This looks like a near miss for the Triangle in NC. A lot of agreement on models coming together on that miss too. Hard to see a southeast trend with retreating air mass in late week. Maybe more of a NW trend actually. Yep that's the problem here, we hardly ever, really never see a SE trend..... 06z GFS is a ugly cold rain storm.......... FRI 00Z 22-JAN 2.7 2.0 1020 99 98 0.14 560 544 FRI 06Z 22-JAN 3.1 1.3 1015 99 89 0.05 557 545 FRI 12Z 22-JAN 2.0 2.6 1008 98 100 0.84 552 545 FRI 18Z 22-JAN 2.9 -2.1 1005 94 34 0.15 544 540 SAT 00Z 23-JAN 1.3 -2.3 1005 97 97 0.01 540 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hey we got the JMA in our camp! don't kmow about temps with that model, but I like where lp is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 How often does a system trend south versus north? The Euro is the only one that looks good for a chance here, and it was awful with the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Bad runs last night. Even on the ensembles there seem to be many low locations too far inland. I agree they seem to want to Miller B this thing. I hate Miller Bs for us. Still early, but we'll see if today starts a trend. Just can't get any stinking cold air around with this moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 A good bit of variety in the 0z GEFS and GGEM members, a couple sig winter storms for NC in there. The consensus though looks like a 95 special from DC to Boston. The signal is growing stronger and pretty much all the global guidance has a storm, so this should be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Can't get a read on next weekend. Some make it sounds like there is a great chance for snow here, and some make it sound like there is no shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Can't get a read on next weekend. Some make it sounds like there is a great chance for snow here, and some make it sound like there is no shot.you could always go check out the models for yourself. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Seems like this system might come into agreement sooner than others due in fact that it might be an I95 system. However, will some members continuing to show a good winter system in NC, I assume model warfare will continue at will. Overall the High placement just needs adjusted A good bit of variety in the 0z GEFS and GGEM members, a couple sig winter storms for NC in there. The consensus though looks like a 95 special from DC to Boston. The signal is growing stronger and pretty much all the global guidance has a storm, so this should be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Cold rain for Wake. If it is borderline, it will be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Can't get a read on next weekend. Some make it sounds like there is a great chance for snow here, and some make it sound like there is no shot. This time of year, there is always a chance, remote, but still a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This time of year, there is always a chance, remote, but still a chance... get_orig_img (2).png get_orig_img.png I wish we could get that. I guess the main thing is the potential is there for a win. Just have to see how the game plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just win baby This time of year, there is always a chance, remote, but still a chance... get_orig_img (2).png get_orig_img.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This time of year, there is always a chance, remote, but still a chance... get_orig_img (2).png get_orig_img.png ...and these are just a couple of panel shots brick, just a few ensemble panels. Probably have some of these all the way up to Friday. Like was mentioned the consensus is a more northwest storm from our location, but we do have the luxury of time on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well let's get tracking. Here's a breakdown from Pcroton at WU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Those pacific waves are coming in too high. Not sure what's going to push this storm south to the gulf...pushing my expectations back down on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Seems like this system might come into agreement sooner than others due in fact that it might be an I95 system. However, will some members continuing to show a good winter system in NC, I assume model warfare will continue at will. Overall the High placement just needs adjusted looks like a pretty good snow storm right now for mtns. of wnc and western va.,,, hopefully this will trend a little more south and east with time and include more folks, maybe draw in some colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12Z GFS is not good at all, trough faster, weaker, no closed 500mb low. Only a few back side NW flow flurries and mountain snow showers. It even does not have the huge NE snow storm-just a moderate event. I hope the Euro is better..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That storm for Friday looks way too strong as currently modeled. It won't be that strong when Friday gets here and there will be a hundred different solutions between now and then! We need the cold t hang on and the Euro to start the SE trend in a few hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GSP on the end of the week storm: THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINOVER THE PIEDMONT IS STARTING TO CREEP UP WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF AWINTER STORM DECLINES. IN SPITE OF OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE...IT SEEMSMORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ASTHE LOW MOVES PAST FOR ANYTHING OTHER RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THEWESTERN CAROLINAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 4KFEET...WHERE THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMP PROFILESCOLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...AND MAYBE LOTS OF IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Can't remember if it was last year or the year before when they was talking about severe weather in central Alabama. That changed quickly into a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GSP on the end of the week storm: THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT IS STARTING TO CREEP UP WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER STORM DECLINES. IN SPITE OF OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR AS THE LOW MOVES PAST FOR ANYTHING OTHER RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 4K FEET...WHERE THERE STILL REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMP PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...AND MAYBE LOTS OF IT. The story of our winter next few days plenty cold but no storm, then Friday we have a good storm and not enough cold air,, go figure that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looking at the Para Euro EPS long-range meteograms/snow... they went from every member with Winter weather in CAE to less than half through Feb. 28th. Bye Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looking at the Para Euro EPS long-range meteograms/snow... they went from every member with Winter weather in CAE to less than half through Feb. 28th. Bye Winter. The 12z gfs showed low temps close to 70 by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12Z GFS is not good at all, trough faster, weaker, no closed 500mb low. Only a few back side NW flow flurries and mountain snow showers. It even does not have the huge NE snow storm-just a moderate event. I hope the Euro is better..... GEFS looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Trend is not our friend for the Friday storm. Gfs does not have a strong enough high pressure for a good CAD setup for NC folks. Still looks great for the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The story of our winter next few days plenty cold but no storm, then Friday we have a good storm and not enough cold air,, go figure that one. It's easy to figure out. That is the norm. It's the snowstorms that are aberrations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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