SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 All aboard the hype train XD At least we are getting events to track this month. Glad about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 FWIW,(not much). the Navgem looks to be setting up much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 To my untrained eye that looks pretty good. Big tall ridge out west with digging vort max around Louisiana. We know there'll be some cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I might be more inclined to buy in on this deal if the high wasnt a measly piss ant 1028MB high. There's just no way that happens as depicted. There is quite temperature gradient across the foothills but i was referring to the mountains. Looks subfreezing throughout. I actually do not discard it completely though...despite how weak that high is. Under the right circumstances, such as this run, even weak highs can be quite efficient thanks to it increasing the gradient between the low and the high. One that always stood out to me was the january 2000 ice storm..although it was much colder ahead of it but that high was a measly 1025 to 1028mb or something like that and very transient and moved across va/nc. In this case there is a small center located over va at one point too. Another one, which i can't recall the date, happened in north carolina a number of years ago. It occured from a measly 1022 to 1025mb high over freaking new york/vermont i believe (it was very far north), temps were not cold/dry ahead of time and freezing temps occured due to actual advection and not evap cooling. It wasn't a huge event but it blew me away that freezing temps actually occured with such a terrible looking setup. There are others but the point is sometimes it doesn't take that monster 1040mb high we normally like to think it does and the low can go pretty far northwest and still produce for the heart of the region assuming the source region or airmass nearby is cold enough. Of course this is dissecting this run far more than what we probably should be doing since i'm sure will look completely different very very soon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 All aboard the hype train XD At least we are getting events to track this month. Glad about that! Move that SW about 200 miles and I'll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 UKMET much less deep and faster with the big GFS storm. Right now not buying the GFS at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 UKMET much less deep and faster with the big GFS storm. Right now not buying the GFS at all. canadian is more similar to the gfs although not as cold. quite a contrast in solutions between the 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 All aboard the hype train XD At least we are getting events to track this month. Glad about that! this includes all of the snow that will fall this weekend too ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 12Z GEFS mean is much further south with the day 5-7 system and is in line with recent ensemble runs. With high pressure forecast to be entrenched to our north, this one has much potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Crazy op runs. Hope the ensembles have the right idea. That thing needs to get south. Love the highs being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I think in the morning AFD , they said another front was coming through Monday or Tuesday , that will bring some fresh cold! Good to have decent agreement at this range for a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z GEFS has the mean low centered over S GA. There's some agreement with the OP on this. Mean snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I want to remind everyone that we can no longer consider the GFS silly. It did pretty well (and the ensembles for the most part) for the upcoming system with it's track and actually getting something going... while the Euro sent it to Cuba at times. While the GFS wasn't perfect, it was more consistent.. and that's with 4 runs a day instead of 2. Of course you'll get some weird solutions looking at every run of it occasionally. As it stands the GEFS mean would be mainly rain for a big portion of the SE for the next weekend system.. 1024 High and not a horrible track at all.. moisture looks good.. I want to see the High much stronger. Edit: that map that Wow posted above isn't half-bad and shows some members with a better setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Several members do have stronger HP 1035+ which would do the trick. The more the ULL cuts off, the more HP we'll have over the northern tier. Many members dig it down to the GOM with a miller A storm setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z Euro digging it farther south as well compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z Euro, just as w/ GEFS mean, has the sfc low over S GA with a cutoff ULL. Only problem, as with the GFS, there is a lack of HP overhead. Cuts it off a little too late to build confluence over the lakes/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z Euro, just as w/ GEFS mean, has the sfc low over S GA with a cutoff ULL. Only problem, as with the GFS, there is a lack of HP overhead. Cuts it off a little too late to build confluence over the lakes/NE. Looks like a cold rain even over the foothills on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 If that random piece of energy sitting over the lakes wasn't there on the 12z Euro at 144hr we would be looking at major winter storm. That small shortwave is screwing up the high pressure up there. None of the models are similar in that area, so who knows how it will play out. That area will be critical in determining how strong of a high pressure can build in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks like a cold rain even over the foothills on the euro. Since the Euro did so well with tomorrow's event....King Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Since the Euro did so well with tomorrow's event....King Fail I didnt know it was already tomorrow. I've already missed most of the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I didnt know it was already tomorrow. I've already missed most of the first half. The fact it sent our low to Cuba a day ago and now all models have it exiting near JAX. Yes it failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hope that midweek system comes further east. Either way, looks like the next two weeks should be fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lol learned from the past anytime Wow starts posting multiple posts it's time to get a little excited. Love the potential next week. GFS sniffing out a beautiful cad setting up, which doesn't usually lead the way in regard to superiority for cad events, not as well as nam, although nam has been garbage for awhile now. Anyhow, building consensus someone is going to get whacked. Nice to see everyone is still here. Enjoy talking with everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 One weakness of Euro (at least back when I lived in N.C. and followed it more closely) was that it wasn't great on forecasting CAD in the medium range. That's a pretty sweet low track it's depicting. Nice to have model agreement in the 6/7 day range on some sort of big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 One weakness of Euro (at least back when I lived in N.C. and followed it more closely) was that it wasn't great on forecasting CAD in the medium range. That's a pretty sweet low track it's depicting. Nice to have model agreement in the 6/7 day range on some sort of big storm. Hey man! hope things are good down in fla. Maybe we can work on some 1899 repeat to get you some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hey man! hope things are good down in fla. Maybe we can work on some 1899 repeat to get you some snow +1 ! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z EPS = pants tent next Friday . Miller A. Much colder than the OP Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 +1 ! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk +2 if it were to work out in some hallucination of sorts! Ahhhh - North Florida winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 12z EPS = pants tent next Friday . Miller A. Much colder than the OP Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Are 850s any better for NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Are 850s any better for NC? Still looks too warm across most of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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