WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Pretty strong signal for a coastal around day 7 on the 0z globals. No evidence of a GL's low at this early stage, quite the contrary, we may have a HP building in to New England. 0z GFS para takes the RN/SN line down south of the VA boarder, plenty of time for this to trend colder and more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Next weekend's system is starting to look like a classic Miller B to me. The models are in decent agreement for 6 days out. The question will be how well high pressure can build into new england for CAD. It looks like if we can manage a decent HP, it would be a wintry mess for a lot of the southeast. The other question is how far south does the surface low transfer to the coast. We need the 5h low to dig farther south so hopefully we can get at transfer from birmingham to Charleston instead of a Nashville to Myrtle beach type transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Don't look now but the 12Z GFS has a little more snow from the next short wave on Wednesday- Especially from the NC and N. GA mountains into TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Wow at the 12z gfs at hour 150 for WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Wow indeed. I will take my foot from this fantasy snow storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That is one of the strangest 850 lines i've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That is one of the strangest 850 lines i've ever seen. Wedgie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Wedgie That doesnt even follow the normal wedge line. Spartanburg shouldnt be cooler than Statesville aloft in a wedge situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That doesnt even follow the normal wedge line. Spartanburg shouldnt be cooler than Statesville aloft in a wedge situation. sure is a strange one...odds of it being right are essentially zero at this point but hopefully it's something to watch. quite the contrast over the upstate..32 to 50 over just a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That doesnt even follow the normal wedge line. Spartanburg shouldnt be cooler than Statesville aloft in a wedge situation. It's a tighter wedge strictly down the immediate eastern spine of the apps. Due to the orient of the high, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Wow indeed. I will take my foot from this fantasy snow storm.... As depicted, this storm would be sleet/freezing for almost everyone,(that's below freezing at the surface), even the mountains. You can count on a warm nose around 800mb with a low pressure that strong to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 sure is a strange one...odds of it being right are essentially zero at this point but hopefully it's something to watch. quite the contrast over the upstate..32 to 50 over just a few miles. if I was betting man, that aint snow, it's a ton of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hard to tell with the junk on that map, but it looks like we'll need everything to set up farther south, from confluence to high pressure to low pressure to transferring, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 As depicted, this storm would be sleet/freezing for almost everyone,(that's below freezing at the surface), even the mountains. You can count on a warm nose around 800mb with a low pressure that strong to our west. There is so much about that where it just doesnt make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 925MB temps are above freezing, it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 925MB temps are above freezing, it looks like. there quite cold actually. in fact, I actually i don't see any warm nose..even 800 to 825 are subfreezing over the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I just cant ever see a situation where a low over central kentucky would give anyone snow, ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I just cant ever see a situation where a low over central kentucky would give anyone snow, ever. Oh it can... for like 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 there quite cold actually. in fact, I actually i don't see any warm nose..even 800 to 825 are subfreezing over the mountains huh. the top one is gastonia, just noticed you cant see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I might be more inclined to buy in on this deal if the high wasnt a measly piss ant 1028MB high. There's just no way that happens as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Snow.jpg snowhky.jpg snowspa.png huh. the top one is gastonia, just noticed you cant see it. Hickory looks really good. Wedge appears to be really tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I just cant ever see a situation where a low over central kentucky would give anyone snow, ever. The eps is MUCH further south Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I just cant ever see a situation where a low over central kentucky would give anyone snow, ever. Me thinks the odds of the gfs getting something right at this range is less than winning the powerball. However, i'll say this..lows that head in that direction actually can greatly enhance cad..helping to draw cold air much further south than one would think. The waa in the mid levels obviously is a negative factor much of the time eventually but in the low levels it can be quite the opposite under the right circumstances. Interesting system to watch unfold. As cheesnado said though the mid week system looks more interesting for alabama, tn and ga at least. Low level Temps this time won't be problem as it will be cold/very dry at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hickory looks really good. Wedge appears to be really tight. Yeah but it's a 1028MB high with a low over Kentucky. There's just no way it goes down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png Beautiful I'll take it. Also under 7 days away. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_25.png Beautiful temp gradient in Upstate SC is amazing - thundersleet for the city of Greenville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I might be more inclined to buy in on this deal if the high wasnt a measly piss ant 1028MB high. There's just no way that happens as depicted.Given that run you would need to pray the ULL travels right over you lol . But it's the GFS post day 1 so it won't play out like that Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 temp gradient in Upstate SC is amazing - thundersleet for the city of Greenville? And rain for me, verbatim, in Easley. Boy, how fun... yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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