BristowWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It was a great run. As long as folks can stay away from the details, out past 7 days, they can appreciate the fact that there will be a pattern conducive to winter storms. You are right. Plenty of potential although not a great as 18z yesterday. Of course this weekend and early next week showed quite a bit of potential about a week ago and now we are looking at couple of rain makers for both of us. But I'll leave the light on for anything more than potential that wants to show up at my door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I never seen the models bounce around so much post day 9, probably should stop looking, LOL. Well day 7-12 is not to bad a pattern for a winter event, active STJ, cold around, about all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Indexes don't look too shabby today. Overnight operational model runs look decent as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Indexes don't look too shabby today. Overnight operational model runs look decent as well: ao.sprd2.jpg NCPE_phase_21m_small.jpg The NAO is slightly better from yesterday. Now it goes negative and then heads back towards an average of neutral in the LR (with some member spread). AO is about the same. The PNA is a little more towards neutral but stays positive in the LR (so we can say it averages slightly positive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Top CPC analogs...83 and 98 both show up 3 times and take the top 4 spots. #strongnino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Doesn't the PNA have a good chance to remain positive with a +PDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Doesn't the PNA have a good chance to remain positive with a +PDO? Yes, I do think once we get into Feb we will see that have more of an effect (PDO/PNA/EPO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Top CPC analogs...83 and 98 both show up 3 times and take the top 4 spots. #strongnino 1966 is there too...also was a strong nino, had a +AO/+NAO in Dec then a flip to -AO/-NAO for Jan-Feb..Also had a warm December, and a full CONUS influx of cold last 1/3rd of Jan. RDU had 11.8" that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The pattern and the factors look good, and the models are starting to show things finally. Hope we start getting something inside 7 days, though, and it doesn't keep showing up at hour 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 1966 is there too...also was a strong nino, had a +AO/+NAO in Dec then a flip to -AO/-NAO for Jan-Feb..Also had a warm December, and a full CONUS influx of cold last 1/3rd of Jan. RDU had 11.8" that winter 1966 and 1970 both featured a cold outbreak late in the month with daily records in CLT that remain today. 1966 saw a snowstorm on the 29th followed by lower single digit lows the following two mornings. Not a bad analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 1966 is there too...also was a strong nino, had a +AO/+NAO in Dec then a flip to -AO/-NAO for Jan-Feb..Also had a warm December, and a full CONUS influx of cold last 1/3rd of Jan. RDU had 11.8" that winter Yeah, you can see the -EPO signature there and that goes along with the pattern we would want to see (1/20/66-1/30/66), we had 2 events that week. The EPS loses it day 10 and GEFS loses it day 12, although with models jumping around so much...CMC-ENS keeps it end to end and would be a snowy ice box. It typically snows in Jan with nino's, especially for western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Jan - March 1983 GSP had 16.8" of snow Jan - March 1966 GSP had 12.5" of snow Jan - March 1998 GSP had trace of snow In 1983 I was a senior in high school. We had a 3.5" snow in January and 3.5" snowfall in February. We narrowly missed a big storm on Valentine's day that went south. Then we had the big dog 9.3" snow in March. The March storm is what made that season so memorable. Of course, it was gone 2 days later. The other thing that I remember and the records confirm is that we had no major arctic outbreaks in SC during Jan - Mar of 83. It never torched but never got bitterly cold either. If the latest European is correct, we will have true arctic cold in SC this year. That would be a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Para-EPS shows potential on the 13th, 15th and the 17th, fairly active. The mean snowfall on SV is 1-2" for RDU to GSO, GSO to foothills it's 2-4" and foothills to mtns it's 4-8". Para-Op has been the highest scoring model as of late, beating out the old EuroOp and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Pretty nice grouping of lows on the 00z EPS mean for the Jan 17th storm that has been showing up on a lot of GFS runs as of late. We've already seen some fantasy snowfall outputs on OP's and individual members, I'd expect more fantasy snowfall maps with this kind of look to show up today and/or toorrow and get the board going again. This will probably be our first decent system to track as long as there's no changes in the 11th-13th period (which there could be as we get a few days closer, the models don't have that system nailed yet either)...As pack alluded to above, going to be a wild and active month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 gfs much colder and suppresses our 1/13 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and am not impressed with the cold for central NC next week. Much of the true arctic air stays up near the Ohio Valley. The cold looks comparable or "less" than the current cold air. The 850 line barely gets south of NC and hovers around Raleigh at the end of the 7 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and am not impressed with the cold for central NC next week. Much of the true arctic air stays up near the Ohio Valley. The cold looks comparable or "less" than the current cold air. Right what we need. Close. , but not supression cold. ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 gfs much colder and suppresses our 1/13 threat. Normally you say this is exactly were we want it, but I think suppression is a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm looking at the 12Z GFS and am not impressed with the cold for central NC next week. Much of the true arctic air stays up near the Ohio Valley. The cold looks comparable or "less" than the current cold air. The 850 line barely gets south of NC and hovers around Raleigh at the end of the 7 day period. we only have like 2 days with highs out of the 40s? plenty cold to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 we only have like 2 days with highs out of the 40s? plenty cold to me. I agree. I'm only out to hour 210 but that is a cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 And remember how often we have had forecasts since fall with it dry 5 days out only for it to be changed to rain 2 or 3 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I agree. I'm only out to hour 210 but that is a cold pattern. Yeah, winter is here to stay for a while on the GFS. Snow? Don't see any yet on the Op, but there's plenty of cold. The PV sits in SE Canada with blocking over the top and a big ridge out west...that's what I'm seeing through 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I'm still a big fan in the 140-170 period. The GFS was close to an overrunning event for parts of the southeast. Just need a little better trough orientation Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yeah, winter is here to stay for a while on the GFS. Snow? Don't see any yet on the Op, but there's plenty of cold. The PV sits in SE Canada with blocking over the top and a big ridge out west...that's what I'm seeing through 198. yea still no fantasy storms, but that is ok. cold is prevalent and the storms will come. can't ask for much more than sustained cold throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 yea still no fantasy storms, but that is ok. cold is prevalent and the storms will come. can't ask for much more than sustained cold throughout. Yes, exactly right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Cold = wet bulbs are cold enough to support wintry precip not sunny and a high of 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I know I keep harping on clippers, but if we do get into an extended cold/dry period there may be multiple chances for small events. They will usually not be modeled until a few days out. An example could be the event Pack showed yesterday in Banter that produced 2-3 inches over a specific area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 yea still no fantasy storms, but that is ok. cold is prevalent and the storms will come. can't ask for much more than sustained cold throughout. You would think so with how wet we have been since fall and being in a Nino. I hope we actually start seeing some storms on the models soon, though. Could be our luck and it just stays cold and dry now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I know I keep harping on clippers, but if we do get into an extended cold/dry period there may be multiple chances for small events. They will usually not be modeled until a few days out. An example could be the event Pack showed yesterday in Banter that produced 2-3 inches over a specific area. Maybe a couple of days but there is nothing pointing to an extended dry period Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If the GEFS is right and we don't see snow by the 20th then we suck. From day 8 on it looks very active, western NC should get on the scoreboard for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.