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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/15/2016 at 9:12 PM, BIG FROSTY said:

WxSouth, said LR looks awful BIG WARM UP incoming!!!  Short winter? lol 

 

Warm up on the Euro looks rather transient to my untrained eyes. Euro ensembles not as bullish on warm up. Indices look undecided according to GFS today. PNA looks to stay about +1 in LR. NAO and AO look to go toward neutral in LR, but they get there by ensemble members being split between + and - in the LR.  

 

If I am not mistaken, Wxsouth had predicted a cold stormy winter and was bullish on the pattern flipping. And, let's be clear, the temp pattern has flipped from December. I would not trust anything this point more than about 24 hours. I would continue to be confident that we will stay wet relative to normal.

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max100

max100

Posted
Posted
  On 1/15/2016 at 10:32 PM, Batman said:

Warm up on the Euro looks rather transient to my untrained eyes. Euro ensembles not as bullish on warm up. Indices look undecided according to GFS today. PNA looks to stay about +1 in LR. NAO and AO look to go toward neutral in LR, but they get there by ensemble members being split between + and - in the LR.  

 

If I am not mistaken, Wxsouth had predicted a cold stormy winter and was bullish on the pattern flipping. And, let's be clear, the temp pattern has flipped from December. I would not trust anything this point more than about 24 hours. I would continue to be confident that we will stay wet relative to normal.

Right, but wherever their is "warm" concerned in the SE it usually comes to fruition.

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/15/2016 at 10:42 PM, max100 said:

Right, but wherever their is "warm" concerned in the SE it usually comes to fruition.

 

I don't notice warm always coming to fruition as much as it seems to me that cold shots don't always make it as strong or as long down our way as the models would have us believe. 

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/15/2016 at 10:57 PM, Batman said:

I don't notice warm always coming to fruition as much as it seems to me that cold shots don't always make it as strong or as long down our way as the models would have us believe.

the lack of phased east coast storms is partly to blame for "not as cold".

The end of January and beginning of February will depend on what happens to the north pacific low. If the low retrogrades towards the Aleutians then it will pump up the PNA ridge, if it moves east into the gulf of Alaska then we will be looking more at a west coast trough. The ao and nao will turn positive.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted
  On 1/15/2016 at 11:34 PM, nchighcountrywx said:

What came through today should have been our largest snow in the heart of winter in Western and Mountains of NC... questionable if it will be in the pattern this winter

Yep told the wife we would of had around 15-17 inches today of snow if the temps would have been just a tad colder.  Had an inch and three quarters of rain from 9 to 5 here in West Asheville.  36 and rain all day   :axe::snowing:

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted
  On 1/15/2016 at 10:32 PM, Batman said:

Warm up on the Euro looks rather transient to my untrained eyes. Euro ensembles not as bullish on warm up. Indices look undecided according to GFS today. PNA looks to stay about +1 in LR. NAO and AO look to go toward neutral in LR, but they get there by ensemble members being split between + and - in the LR.  

 

If I am not mistaken, Wxsouth had predicted a cold stormy winter and was bullish on the pattern flipping. And, let's be clear, the temp pattern has flipped from December. I would not trust anything this point more than about 24 hours. I would continue to be confident that we will stay wet relative to normal.

Here's his tweet I was referring about LR.

 

Cold looks brief on Euro, warmth esp 850, then sfc spreads east, ne fast .+10 to +15 Plains, Lakes NE again soon

 
 
 
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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2016 at 12:49 AM, BIG FROSTY said:

Here's his tweet I was referring about LR.

 

WXSOUTH ‏@WxSouth  5h5 hours ago

Cold looks brief on Euro, warmth esp 850, then sfc spreads east, ne fast .+10 to +15 Plains, Lakes NE again soon

 

Well I've felt over the past several days that this upcoming week is the week to score. Aside from a out of the blue late Feb storm, winter will remember december. This nino is just to strong and mostly my gut just ain't feeling it for fab feb, regardless of nino climo analog etc. We got 3 shots sun, mid week, and hopefully next weekend before we do a pattern reshuffle probably. Then we'll have to wait 10 days to 2 weeks to shuffle through that one possibly. That puts us approaching 2cnd week Feb. So in a nutshell I'd like to get on the board this week some how. Just avoiding the shutout this year is a big win imo. Next year is supose to be a super strong LA nina. So we best get some gravel in our gut and appreciate the few shots we get cause they'll be tough to come by.
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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2016 at 1:27 AM, NCSNOW said:

Well I've felt over the past several days that this upcoming week is the week to score. Aside from a out of the blue late Feb storm, winter will remember december. This nino is just to strong and mostly my gut just ain't feeling it for fab feb, regardless of nino climo analog etc. We got 3 shots sun, mid week, and hopefully next weekend before we do a pattern reshuffle probably. Then we'll have to wait 10 days to 2 weeks to shuffle through that one possibly. That puts us approaching 2cnd week Feb. So in a nutshell I'd like to get on the board this week some how. Just avoiding the shutout this year is a big win imo. Next year is supose to be a super strong LA nina. So we best get some gravel in our gut and appreciate the few shots we get cause they'll be tough to come by.

Wasn't the great winter of 2010-11 a La Nina winter ?

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
  On 1/15/2016 at 11:04 PM, franklin NCwx said:

the lack of phased east coast storms is partly to blame for "not as cold".

The end of January and beginning of February will depend on what happens to the north pacific low. If the low retrogrades towards the Aleutians then it will pump up the PNA ridge, if it moves east into the gulf of Alaska then we will be looking more at a west coast trough. The ao and nao will turn positive.

We can have a shot or 2 if the pna will spike and stay spiked. We don't have to have a neg nao. It's nice but alot of rdu 2+ snows happen in +nao's per larry. This is a great post and point franklin. It's the signal to pay most attn to as we flip calendar into feb

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2016 at 1:31 AM, NCSNOW said:

We can have a shot or 2 if the pna will spike and stay spiked. We don't have to have a neg nao. It's nice but alot of rdu 2+ snows happen in +nao's per larry. This is a great post and point franklin. It's the signal to pay most attn to as we flip calendar into feb

Agree on all points. I'll take that away from this winter, PNA/epo delivers more cold than nao.

The nao doesn't seem to do anything worthwhile nor function as a block unless the PV is blocked to the east. If it's trapped in the midwest, it's cold, but storms still cut or get sheared out and great lake lows prevail. They seem more trouble than they're worth. Give me a nice tall west coast Ridge with high pressure up in the lakes floating east and I'll be excited again.

Hopefully we get that for a couple weeks in February.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2016 at 2:12 AM, Cold Rain said:

What we keep forgetting is that the configuration of the NAO and PNA matters just as much as the sign of the index. And even then, it takes luck down here, especially in recent years.

Yes sir it does. Just having the indices in whatever territory (neg or pos) you prefer doesn't mean ditty if they aren't lined up in the right formation. To use a football analogy I can heave the best 5 step drop back pocket passer in the world with the greatest receiving corps in the world. But if we line up in the wishbone with 2 tightends for a formation, that highpower offense want be as effective as it would if we lined up in a spread formation. How things are aligned mean as much as the players themselves

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2016 at 1:46 AM, Brick Tamland said:

But Raleigh also averages 25% more snow days than normal with the +PNA and -NAO combo. It just doesn't seem to be working out this winter.

 

I'm curious about your 25% because I believe Raleigh only averages 2 days with falling snow per year.  

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2016 at 2:40 AM, Brick Tamland said:

I agree. You can have all the potential in the world and your team look the best on paper. But that doesn't automatically mean they are going to win. Still have to.play the game. Just like it sports, it's even more frustating to see that great potential but not be able to get a win.

It doesn't mean we will win, but can we at least score a few runs and make it a good game ?

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2016 at 3:07 AM, Brick Tamland said:

Research from the State Climate Office of NC

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php

 

From reading that, the snow days referenced are days with = or < than 1" of snow on the ground.  Good research but the differences in the numbers are probably at least as much to do with the temperatures of the days after a snowfall than the amount of snow that fell.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2016 at 6:36 AM, snowstorm2011 said:

I don't have access to the maps but someone in the mid Atlantic forum said Euro @ 150 doesn't look that bad. Says it could be a hit for parts of SE.

 

LOL, you tempted me to look.

 

It is a little warm, verbatim (850s of 0-1C with 2ms in the low to mid 30s), even for N NC.  SW VA gets some fun.  Kind of a funky looking system, TBH.

 

EDIT: The EPS is still pretty bullish with regards to the system, though.

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