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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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It's a week out what do you expect a 90% chance of over .25 liquid equivalent? 

 

That is exactly what some people want. If that is not what is shown one week out we get another round of storm fail and winter cancel posts on here. This storm is being consistently modeled. It is looking like a matter of storm track and, for folks as far south as me, temps.

 

One thing to note this morning about the current system is that the storm this morning is once again over performing on precip totals. NWS had about .25 forcasted for me. I will be surprised if I don't end up with an inch out of this storm.

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Looks like there is a chance for some snow the middle of next week. I thought there was another system to watch for next weekend, too.

Both times have models barking to some degree. Actually saw jma last night I beleive and it was pretty wound up big daddy bullish. So busy trying to rope this one in haven't really focused on next week other than to know mid week and late week has opportunities. Gonna have to have the HP pos right for these 2 though.

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If there turns out to be a system next Tues/Wed, the temps would definitely be much more favorable.  I looked at the guidance today, and the waves look pretty week with not a great 500mb look for a nice phased system.  I'd prefer a stronger looking wave at this point, but at least I'm happy with the temps.

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we broke down and bought a new fifth wheel last year. Did you ever buy another camper?

 

Halfway there, bought a new Ram 2500 4x4 last summer.  The travel trailer is on track for fall of this year.  At least I can chase a storm or two in the mountains with the truck in the meantime.  Congrats on the new fiver!  PM me pics when you get a chance.  (sorry for the off topic).

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Gfs wants to amplify the mid week wave more and keeps the trough on the Friday event positively tilted the whole time. No system for next Friday on the gfs but no cutter. A lot of the euro ensemble members had an amped system so I find the gfs solution the least likely.

The 12z GEFS says the op is on its own with that solution

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I don't really think it's necessarily a big spread, just individual members are unsure whether to key on the first or the second impulse.  I actually think there is a BIG signal for a Miller A on the 12z gefs.

Euro Ens mean looks a little better for late next week.  Positive tilt trough through the central states with big west coast ridging behind...then it wants to close off or bottom out over the southeast.  Temps are marginal, but a little colder than yesterday

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Euro Ens mean looks a little better for late next week. Positive tilt trough through the central states with big west coast ridging behind...then it wants to close off or bottom out over the southeast. Temps are marginal, but a little colder than yesterday

there are some mixed signals some want to key on the first wave like the ops rather than the 2nd wave.

Long range after looks terrible.

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