Southern Track Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I wish the western ridge was a little more pronounced. It would help it dig a little more and feed more precip in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I was going to say hr 120 it looks like it's blowing up. I'll take that all day. its a little stronger, but the key is that it stuck to its guns. need to euro to come towards the gfs tonight or tomorrow 12z before we get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 thing goes from 1000mb to 970s off the ast coast as it pounds new england. really cranks once it makes the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 its a little stronger, but the key is that it stuck to its guns. need to euro to come towards the gfs tonight or tomorrow 12z before we get too excited. Of course, I'm in full agreement. But we have what is it now 4 model runs of the GFS with this? That's fantastic. GFS= stronger every run EURO= weak every run. Something is gonna happen soon. gonna go wild if the Euro flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Fishel said the first ingredient was there...the cold air out of the north. But he said there is nothing coming along to give any precip at all. Didn't even mention the possibility of anything this weekend or even hint at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 very slight changes if any, gfs is stronger with the lp off the sc/ga coast roughly the same spot as 12z. holds serve. 18z: 12z: good luck, folks! i smell a thunderstorm down here :~( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You boys might like the 12z para gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Para GFS cranks her up. Colder and 998mb over sav Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The 12Z Parallel GFS still has the storm but temps are still borderline and warmer than the 6Z run: Courtesy of AmWx Model Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You boys might like the 12z para gfs. Yeah, just was coming here to say the same. Warning-criteria hit for much of NC, N GA, N AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Para GFS cranks her up. Colder and 998mb over sav CLT even gets in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 the snow maps leave a lot to be desired for SC,GA,NC (clt area) but... things will move around.. and dangerously close to having a potential bomb. small trends in the right direction... really want the Euro OP to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You boys might like the 12z para gfs.Rain for Raleigh and snow for me! I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yeah, just was coming here to say the same. Warning-criteria hit for much of NC, N GA, N AL.Rain for SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Rain for Raleigh and snow for me! I'll take itSnow maps blank you and give Rdu west 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 tiny changes in the tilt, speed, track, and strength will lead to big changes. but again, it's the GFS & the Para GFS.. some ensemble support from the Euro though. might could even get something frozen down to CAE, but right now that's quite unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 18z GEFS looks good Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Fishel said the first ingredient was there...the cold air out of the north. But he said there is nothing coming along to give any precip at all. Didn't even mention the possibility of anything this weekend or even hint at it. And that has happened over and over again since the fall. Their forecast would be dry 5 days out only to change to an inch of rain 2 or 3 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Gefs has more moisture and a tad colder than the op. Great low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 When does the next EURO come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 When does the next EURO come out? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29651-weather-references-and-newbie-information/page-4#entry3837372 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 No huge changes from 12z to 18z on GEFS...other than tighter low ensemble member couplets as far as track is concerned, also the couplets of the low off the coast is tight enough w/ strong enough members to give it a 1002mb mean designation as apposed to 1006mb. Small changes, it will be hard to lose this storm although I am knocking on wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 When does the next EURO come out? Starts rolling on stormvista at 12:47am EST, other model suites around 1am+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 18z GEFS looks good Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I don't see much of a change compared to 12z. I am not feeling as optimistic as I was 24hrs ago, this looks like a 10:1 long shot, maybe 4:1 under the best circumstances. One would like to see the operational EC come around at this range, with a little more than 25% of it ens mems having similar solution to the GFS. Despite being the most amped, there are still lower level thickness issues on the GFS, even back in to Central NC if we do get a coastal. The long wave trough looks muted, jet orientation off the SE coast is to the ENE, 5460m isohypse barely clips N AL/GA, I could go on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 No huge changes from 12z to 18z on GEFS...other than tighter low ensemble member couplets as far as track is concerned, also the couplets of the low off the coast is tight enough w/ strong enough members to give it a 1002mb mean designation as apposed to 1006mb. Small changes, it will be hard to lose this storm although I am knocking on wood. I would assume if we took a 50 50 of the OP gfs + OP Euro and their ensembles... a lot of people could potentially see something Wintry. Both OP models are quite warm at the surface... but... we'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I would assume if we took a 50 50 of the OP gfs + OP Euro and their ensembles... a lot of people could potentially see something Wintry. Both OP models are quite warm at the surface... but... we'll have to see. Honestly I'm not worrying about temps until around 48 hours out, keeps a little stress off my back and I just live in fantasy land at 850mb. I understand why you are though, very iffy cold source. But yeah, I want to take the cold from one model and lows from the other and blend them...lol, hopefully the Euro and GFS come together something beautiful with tonight's 00z runs. All eyes on Euro, the GFS has shown it's hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I don't see much of a change compared to 12z. I am not feeling as optimistic as I was 24hrs ago, this looks like a 10:1 long shot, maybe 4:1 under the best circumstances. One would like to see the operational EC come around at this range, with a little more than 25% of it ens mems having similar solution to the GFS. Despite being the most amped, there are still lower level thickness issues on the GFS, even back in to Central NC if we do get a coastal. The long wave trough looks muted, jet orientation off the SE coast is to the ENE, 5460m isohypse barely clips N AL/GA, I could go on... 12zec01121612z.JPG One thinks it's much better than 75 degrees in December Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Honestly I'm not worrying about temps until around 48 hours out, keeps a little stress off my back and I just live in fantasy land at 850mb. I understand why you are though, very iffy cold source. But yeah, I want to take the cold from one model and lows from the other and blend them...lol, hopefully the Euro and GFS come together something beautiful with tonight's 00z runs. All eyes on Euro, the GFS has shown it's hand. Is this potential the GFS has the same potential the Euro blew up with a monster storm 3 or 4 days ago? I remember seeing 12 inch+ amounts and even a 24 inch + in northern SC. After a while, it all feels like a blur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Let's keep in mind where the energy associated with this storm is...out in la-la land for the next 66+ hours until it arrives on land. May be until Thursday or later until we figure out what exactly will happen. Ensembles over Op is the way to go here. Analyzing temperature profiles will drive you nuts at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Good run I'll take it.Yep good run, especially for western areas. Let's see where we go from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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