griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Parade rainer oner. Ha, that's reserved for Widre UKMet looks nice and amplified with a big cutter this weekend. That would help in slowing down the Atlantic side flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 12z CMC Ens matches with other modeling showing a couple of suppressed threats after cold pattern moves in (not sure if it was posted) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 00z GFS - most of nation turns cold behind storm this weekend. Then weak waves are trying to round the base of the large central / eastern U.S. trough. Setup reminds me of snowjam II if a wave could round the base with overrunning into the Arctic air mass. Light snow breaks out in TX, but is suppressed and can't push east. PNA ridge looks good. The full conus is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 00z GFS - most of nation turns cold behind storm this weekend. Then weak waves are trying to round the base of the large central / eastern U.S. trough. Setup reminds me of snowjam II if a wave could round the base with overrunning into the Arctic air mass. Light snow breaks out in TX, but is suppressed and can't push east. PNA ridge looks good. The full conus is cold At least it seems we have some widespread and long lasting cold ahead, with it being an El Niño and so much energy flying around something will pop up as we get closer to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The noted STJ wave hits the Cali coast at hr222. PNA ridge looks good. No GLakes low in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Setup looks pretty sweet at hr231. Big southern stream wave in the southwest...should stay fairly suppressed with confluence out ahead over the eastern U.S. Regardless of how this ends, hard not to like the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just a gorgeous setup. It phases, warms and lifts north at the end, lol. hr 252 is about as textbook as it gets for many of our good southern stream winter storms. Love the look and matches with what we've been seeing with the op and ensemble runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just a gorgeous setup. It phases, warms and lifts north at the end, lol. hr 252 is about as textbook as it gets for many of our good southern stream winter storms. Love the look and matches with what we've been seeing with the op and ensemble runs. Shocker...clipper in southern Canada pushes the (weak) HP off the coast and everyone gets rain. OH, AND there's a random LP in Missouri. Oy vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just a gorgeous setup. It phases, warms and lifts north at the end, lol. hr 252 is about as textbook as it gets for many of our good southern stream winter storms. Love the look and matches with what we've been seeing with the op and ensemble runs. It's under 300 hours and we still have a good signal for a storm. I have my eye on the 12-14th time range and then 16-18th also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 00z GFS - most of nation turns cold behind storm this weekend. Then weak waves are trying to round the base of the large central / eastern U.S. trough. Setup reminds me of snowjam II if a wave could round the base with overrunning into the Arctic air mass. Light snow breaks out in TX, but is suppressed and can't push east. PNA ridge looks good. The full conus is cold 00z GFS Ens has this type of event from hr150-192 It's under 300 hours and we still have a good signal for a storm. I have my eye on the 12-14th time range and then 16-18th also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 00z GFS Ens - there's wintry weather across portions of the south on each panel from hr204-252 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 00z GFS Ens - there's wintry weather across portions of the south on each panel from hr204-252 So we have a threat in the 150-192 range and then again 204-252? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Then our larger STJ wave moves in - great setup with gulf low and high pressure over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...more wintry precip across upper south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Parade rainer oner. Mr. Cold Rain sir! I wish to bring to your attention the fact that I'm now at 31 degrees, quite sufficient to freeze falling water, should said water be available. But as so many times before the water has scurried off, lol, it's winter, it's cold....but alas no water My guess it you are colder there, with maybe flurries, but moisture starved non the less....so I rest my case, lol. You've got to have the water in winter T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Amateur question here.. At the end of the GFS run, there's a LP system that has a lot of moisture to it and has an inland track.. What would it take to get the temperatures low enough to have frozen precip? I would assume that you would need a unique type of scenario with a HP, since a really strong HP behind it up northwest would probably suppress that or keep it offshore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 So we have a threat in the 150-192 range and then again 204-252? 204 to 252 is lighter overrunning type setup...different members with different timing skewing the mean I suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Where would be a good place to find GFS ensembles with precip types? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Amateur question here.. At the end of the GFS run, there's a LP system that has a lot of moisture to it and has an inland track.. What would it take to get the temperatures low enough to have frozen precip? I would assume that you would need a unique type of scenario with a HP, since a really strong HP behind it up northwest would probably suppress that or keep it offshore.. It needs to track across Fla. The low in Ga will nearly always to hot for us around Atlanta. It would be unique indeed for a storm that strong to thow out snow crossing Ga. It needs to be weaker, and down in Florida for us. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It needs to track across Fla. The low in Ga will nearly always to hot for us around Atlanta. It would be unique indeed for a storm that strong to thow out snow crossing Ga. It needs to be weaker, and down in Florida for us. Tony Superstorm 93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Hmm Euro coming into agreement with GEFS on nice Miller A storm January 14-15th. 1041 high over the Midwest pressing down with a weak low over southern Louisiana. Would be snow across much of northern AL, GA and likely parts of SC/NC. Run ends at 240 but looks really good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Euro is very amplified with the weekend cutter, much like the UKMet look. Then huge cold vortex drops down so it's cold across the country, and especially over the Great Lakes. W Canada ridging keeps popping up through the run. Weak wave and gulf low gives light wintry precip across upper south from 222-240, with strong and cold sfc high over MN into Iowa. Larger STJ wave gets stuck on the west coast at hr240 but would be a big player if it kicked out. Pattern looks fun and loaded with potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Hmm Euro coming into agreement with GEFS on nice Miller A storm January 14-15th. 1041 high over the Midwest pressing down with a weak low over southern Louisiana. Would be snow across much of northern AL, GA and likely parts of SC/NC. Run ends at 240 but looks really good... Would love to see a snow accumulation map of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Here is a sample of what the Euro shows hour 240, first time this year it's shown snow in the extended range so this is a great sign even if it doesn't verify, overall a great pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 UKMet has a phased bomb for the weekend storm - 988 mb over Chesapeake...so another highly amplified look preceding the cold air entrenchment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Overall I think we are seeing good agreement from the models to watch the 12-14th and 16-18th for potential snow events. Euro coming on board at hours 222-240 increases confidence by a large margin. The key now is to see consistency from the Euro and other models on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 6z GFS just came in dangerously close Jan12...unlike the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 A lot has been made of the cold next week being more so than this week....But I'm not really seeing it, at least for central NC. Looks like we get a "glancing blow" of the really cold stuff, similar to this week, but most of the really cold stuff stays north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 6z was a complete weenie run storm after storm rolling thru the south. Plenty of "fantasy storms" for the crowd that has that fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 6z was a complete weenie run storm after storm rolling thru the south. Plenty of "fantasy storms" for the crowd that has that fetish. I had to take a look at it again once you posted that. I didn't see anything really solid even in the fantasy category. But I could have easily missed something. hr 288-300 showed some promise as it usually does on the 17th which seems to be a date many like but even that looked like a slow arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 6z was a complete weenie run storm after storm rolling thru the south. Plenty of "fantasy storms" for the crowd that has that fetish. It was a great run. As long as folks can stay away from the details, out past 7 days, they can appreciate the fact that there will be a pattern conducive to winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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