PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If the EURO isn't showing it, then I'm not sold. With models being tools to help develop a forecast, I would like my best tool to show a little something... Still time to change, but it needs to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks like I may be on the outside looking in while you central NC folks rack up! I don't mind, though. Just gives me a reason to head to the triangle on Sunday morning! Hopefully temperatures trend cooler for y'all. Cold coming from the west usually doesn't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Funny how the Euro had a storm for this time before and then it goes away, only for the GFS to show one now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 holds serve? stays the same? Slight changes, it goes neutral with the energy at 108 but back positive at 114. It is very close though, the placement of features is similar to the GFS but the GFS goes neutral and negative sooner. Euro took a step that direction imo with a neutral tilt for the first time at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Fail ..... It's the euro, cmc vs the GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It cant ever be easy it seems, as usual we are on the wrong side of that battle....hopefully the GFS pulls a winner this time around. One thing about the SE is we never ever hardly get a well modeled for sure hit more than 2-3 days out and I can only think of a handful of storms that all the models had and agreed on 5-7 days out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Main difference between Euro and GFS is how they handle the piece of the PV that breaks off. GFS has it further west which allows the storm a chance to go neutral/negative while the Euro has it over the Great Lakes and crushes the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 One thing to note. Last night the Euro PARA looked closer to the GFS than 00z and 12z runs today. Either way, hard to have a ton of confidence in the GFS right now but it's scored the coop before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro got the Gulf low, but it was weak with the high pressure over the Midwest further south than GFS. Went into South Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro kind of takes a middle ground between the GFS and GGEM. Of course, that doesn't work out for us, but the Euro didn't show the GGEM solution, either. Anyways, with the low going to Cuba, we've seen that one before, eh? Not much reason to be confident at this point, but I guess we'll see. I'm a winter weather cheerleader, so I'll continue to follow along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro might have a trick up it's sleeve out past 150. Bit of a mess at 5h but it's phasing two weak pieces and spreading moisture across TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Euro kind of takes a middle ground between the GFS and GGEM. Of course, that doesn't work out for us, but the Euro didn't show the GGEM solution, either. Anyways, with the low going to Cuba, we've seen that one before, eh? I saw some minor but important changes in the Euro, compared this run with last night. The energy goes neutral this run at hour 108, it didn't go neutral at all on last nights run. The piece of energy over the Great Lakes also trended a little further NW which is what we need to see. The GFS has this about 100-150 miles further NW which allows room for the system to develop. If the GFS continues with the storm 18z and 00z tonight then I would expect the Euro to come around also. I don't buy the Euro sending the low into Cuba, not one bit. Small changes in these features would result in a dramatic NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I saw some minor but important changes in the Euro, compared this run with last night. The energy goes neutral this run at hour 108, it didn't go neutral at all on last nights run. The piece of energy over the Great Lakes also trended a little further NW which is what we need to see. The GFS has this about 100-150 miles further NW which allows room for the system to develop. If the GFS continues with the storm 18z and 00z tonight then I would expect the Euro to come around also. How often does the Euro come around to the GFS solution and not the other way around? If this was the reverse, would you be saying this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 8 of the 21 GFS Ensemble members don't have a storm like the Euro and CMC...The other 13 do, some big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 How often does the Euro come around to the GFS solution and not the other way around? If this was the reverse, would you be saying this? Ha, true. I'm pro Euro, but I've been saying the GFS has the hot hand of late (all these storms have been farther north and the GFS has been the first to latch onto it)....we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I saw some minor but important changes in the Euro, compared this run with last night. The energy goes neutral this run at hour 108, it didn't go neutral at all on last nights run. The piece of energy over the Great Lakes also trended a little further NW which is what we need to see. The GFS has this about 100-150 miles further NW which allows room for the system to develop. If the GFS continues with the storm 18z and 00z tonight then I would expect the Euro to come around also. Nice optimism. We can look at the ensembles but seems like it's time for the op to take center stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro is going to be close for next week. I will say when I see the models flipping with the energy and showing close to the same solution just at different times that gives me personally a lot of confidence. The pattern clearly is good for something. It's just going to be all about timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 lol nevermind it's going to be suppression city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Ha, true. I'm pro Euro, but I've been saying the GFS has the hot hand of late (all these storms have been farther north and the GFS has been the first to latch onto it)....we'll see I wish I knew how the Euro and the GFS handled all the precip we had here since the start of fall. I wonder which one was the first to show the rain coming when we got a lot of it, and how far out it started showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 How often does the Euro come around to the GFS solution and not the other way around? If this was the reverse, would you be saying this? More often than not the GFS comes around to the Euro. However the trend this year inside of 120 on all models has been stronger, more amplified and more NW. Just look at the storm for the 14-15th. A few days ago it was modeled to take a track inland over NC and now the models have all trended NW to the final track over Illinois with a secondary low forming in the Gulf. The trend every winter and especially this year is NW inside 120 and the GFS solution of a NW trend (Cuba versus now off the NC coast) makes more sense and why I believe it is correct. We rarely if ever see storms trend SE as the event nears its usually further north and west. I expect the Euro to make small changes that will reflect on this. The UKMET also has a similar solution to the GFS as well so it's really UK/GFS vs Euro/CMC. I'm going with the GFS solution not because I'm trying to wishcast but because the NW trend simply makes more sense with what we've seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 More often than not the GFS comes around to the Euro. However the trend this year inside of 120 on all models has been stronger, more amplified and more NW. Just look at the storm for the 14-15th. A few days ago it was modeled to take a track inland over NC and now the models have all trended NW to the final track over Illinois with a secondary low forming in the Gulf. The trend every winter and especially this year is NW inside 120 and the GFS solution of a NW trend (Cuba versus now off the NC coast) makes more sense and why I believe it is correct. We rarely if ever see storms trend SE as the event nears its usually further north and west. I expect the Euro to make small changes that will reflect on this. The UKMET also has a similar solution to the GFS as well so it's really UK/GFS vs Euro/CMC. I'm going with the GFS solution not because I'm trying to wishcast but because the NW trend simply makes more sense with what we've seen this year. You get a PV placement like the euro just had and it won't matter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 More often than not the GFS comes around to the Euro. However the trend this year inside of 120 on all models has been stronger, more amplified and more NW. Just look at the storm for the 14-15th. A few days ago it was modeled to take a track inland over NC and now the models have all trended NW to the final track over Illinois with a secondary low forming in the Gulf. The trend every winter and especially this year is NW inside 120 and the GFS solution of a NW trend (Cuba versus now off the NC coast) makes more sense and why I believe it is correct. We rarely if ever see storms trend SE as the event nears its usually further north and west. I expect the Euro to make small changes that will reflect on this. The UKMET also has a similar solution to the GFS as well so it's really UK/GFS vs Euro/CMC. I'm going with the GFS solution not because I'm trying to wishcast but because the NW trend simply makes more sense with what we've seen this year. High Risk highlights this in the MA forum as to why the GFS might be onto something....I emphasize might but worth a read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You get a PV placement like the euro just had and it won't matter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I expect that feature will be a little further NW similar to the GFS and UKMET idea. That's really all that would need to change and a small shift like that wouldn't be hard to get at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I have seen the euro take all the other models to the woodshed more times than I can count over the years in this time range. With that said, I will continue to have a peaked interest in this until the GFS loses the system or tracks it far enough to the south and east to do us any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I have seen the euro take all the other models to the woodshed more times than I can count over the years in this time range. With that said, I will continue to have a peaked interest in this until the GFS loses the system or tracks it far enough to the south and east to do us any good. It's not just the GFS though the UK is on board and it has done well many times and caught onto a trend before the Euro. It will be an interesting battle to watch but I'm going with the GFS/UK solution as the NW trend almost always happens inside 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pulling for GFS, but never bet against the Euro if you do you will end up being a loser more times than not! but it is not without sin itself! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's not just the GFS though the UK is on board and it has done well many times and caught onto a trend before the Euro. It will be an interesting battle to watch but I'm going with the GFS/UK solution as the NW trend almost always happens inside 120. I hear ya, and logic/past experiences would certainly give credence to that thought. I have seen the Euro take the UK to the woodshed too, many times inside of 120. I think the UK went through an upgrade last winter and it was the second highest scoring model.......but that was last winter. Not sure where it is now, haven't been paying enough attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It's not just the GFS though the UK is on board and it has done well many times and caught onto a trend before the Euro. It will be an interesting battle to watch but I'm going with the GFS/UK solution as the NW trend almost always happens inside 120. Really, if the precip does get squashed to Cuba like the Euro has it now, it would go against the trend here since the start of fall. Ever since then, we have had a lot of rain. And often the rain was not in the forecast until 2 or 3 days out, because the models would start to trend NW with the precip. Hopefully, the GFS is right this time and the Euro will catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Really, if the precip does get squashed to Cuba like the Euro has it now, it would go against the trend here since the start of fall. Ever since then, we have had a lot of rain. And often the rain was not in the forecast until 2 or 3 days out, because the models would start to trend NW with the precip. Hopefully, the GFS is right this time and the Euro will catch on. Off my memory alone I think the 12 Euro Op was closer to something than the 00z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Off my memory alone I think the 12 Euro Op was closer to something than the 00z was[/quoteare getting in range where the op runs are more reliable vs. the ensembles or too soon? For Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Off my memory alone I think the 12 Euro Op was closer to something than the 00z was[/quoteare getting in range where the op runs are more reliable vs. the ensembles or too soon? For Sunday We should be but it doesn't look like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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