Jonathan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 UKMET is about 6 hours faster than the GFS...could be a good thing. Decent runs of the GFS/UKMET tonight, boys. Let's hope the EURO/Para keeps it alive as it did at 12z today. So technically, 3 models show the threat *improving* so far (4 if you count the EURO-Para) Of course, everything could (and probably will) be wiped out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 5 days out...I think that's a new record so far for this season...Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 5 days out...I think that's a new record so far for this season...Maybe... Closest we've been so far, for sure! It's a really weak system, but I think a lot of folks in the Carolinas (not sure it'll make it up to VA) would have a better life this season if they laid down an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 5 days out...I think that's a new record so far for this season...Maybe... No the Euro definitely had a possible SE snow event for this coming Friday 2-3 days ago but that was closer to a 6-7 day forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What I want to see now with the threat on the 17th is for it to trend NW with a low closer to the coast. The cold air should be in place we just need the moisture. A light 1-3" snow is possible if this trends closer to shore. We need the models to latch on to this idea and consistently show it instead of showing it one run then dropping it the next. Since we are right at the 120 hour mark it definitely has a much greater chance of turning into something if we get just a few small changes the next few days. As it is right now it would be too far south for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think there is a limit on how much the trailing shortwave can amplify and would prefer to see that cutoff north of MN shifted east a bit. The leading system sets up a transient 50:50 near the Bay of Fundy which is usually one of the things you want to look for at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 5-6 of the GFS individual ensemble have something along the gulf at 132 hours with 2 members having something deep, I usually like to see 8-9 members with a similarity to the Op but it's a start. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What I want to see now with the threat on the 17th is for it to trend NW with a low closer to the coast. The cold air should be in place we just need the moisture. A light 1-3" snow is possible if this trends closer to shore. We need the models to latch on to this idea and consistently show it instead of showing it one run then dropping it the next. Since we are right at the 120 hour mark it definitely has a much greater chance of turning into something if we get just a few small changes the next few days. As it is right now it would be too far south for everyone. If it goes negative soon enough you would be looking at a bigger event bs 1-3 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If it goes negative soon enough you would be looking at a bigger event bs 1-3 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk My concern though is if it goes negative too soon it could bring much warmer air inland as well. The cold air is moving in during the same timeframe and if it amplifies enough it may bring too much warm air inland causing either rain or mixing issues. It's a fine line we walk here in the SE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 My concern though is if it goes negative too soon it could bring much warmer air inland as well. The cold air is moving in during the same timeframe and if it amplifies enough it may bring too much warm air inland causing either rain or mixing issues. It's a fine line we walk here in the SE lol. Exactly...never underestimate WAA from a strong GOM Low...plenty of times it has screwed people....hell I've been screwed several times in the last 5 winters while people 50 miles north were plastered. The warm nose is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Depending on where you reside in the SE, neg tilt should occur near the MS river or just east. For us here in E NC, we usually like to see the FL panhandle for the hard right turn. While the embedded shortwave kind of turned on the GFS, the long wave axis is still clearly positive, hence no sig strengthening of the slp as it exits stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 EURO looking pretty close to the GFS at 117 at 5h. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro fails for Sunday. Never even gets to neutral.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Northern stream is too dominant this run our energy never goes negative and instead gets suppressed. Looks like a half way descent clipper possibly setting up. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The 46 day Euro parallel (monthly eps) has our pattern lasting through the end of February but with a few changes. It begins to take away the negative NAO and replaces it with the PV over Hudson Bay. The Southeast has a weak trough overhead while a decent PNA ridge extends into Canada and then another ridge sets up east of Greenland. It also has 19 of its ensemble members bringing light snow to RDU on the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 00z eps is a little discouraging. Plenty of lows on the SE/SE Coast, problem is the HP trended towards the weaker GFS solution. Not only is it weaker but it's trending slower (a whole 18 hrs slower). Even though 850s are fine at 00-12z 1/17 for NC and the N gulf states, it's not a trend we want to see get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 As soon as I say that, 06z GFS bringing in the goods. Snow in NC @132 @138 low moves out, not too much moisture because low bombs too far off coast. @174 low getting going over alabama with plenty of cold, could be back to back systems this run. @180 snow in N AL, N GA, NW SC. @198 still snow in SC. Second 1/19 low never really gets going but light accumulations over the SE states although haven't seen snow maps. Interesting run, I'll let someone analyze the 500mb vorts, I'm off to work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 06Z GFS says it will be snowing while the panthers take it to the Seahawks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 06Z GFS says it will be snowing while the panthers take it to the Seahawks Yep, going to be fun watching that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 From KGSP152FXUS62 KGSP 120818AFDGSPAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC318 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 300 AM EST TUESDAY...THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UPOVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITHSHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM THEGULF COAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST ECMWF REMAINSSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS/NAM IN BRINGING RETURN FLOW MOISTUREAHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. THISWOULD HAVE PTYPE CONSEQUENCES...WITH AN EARLIER ONSET CREATING THEPOSSIBILITY OF BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE COLDER SHELTEREDVALLEY AND NORTHERN TIER LOCATIONS. AN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WILLBE FOLLOWED WHICH KEEPS THE DURATION OF ANY FREEZING RAIN VERYBRIEF. OTHERWISE...PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO KEEP/TURNALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE NUMERICALMODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A SURFACELOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHUTTLING QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COASTALPLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD PLACE THEHEAVIEST QPF OVER PIEDMONT SECTIONS. ALSO...A POCKET OF 6 TO 6.5 DEGC PER KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS LOW PASSAGE. ELEVATEDCONVECTION IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT SEEMS POSSIBLE...BUT THE SURFACEBASED INSTABILITY REMAINS SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THUNDERCHANCES WILL BE GREATER.THE PHASING WAVE SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY NIGHTWITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WRAPPING IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOISTURE WILL PERSIST LATE FRIDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FROPA SENDING SUB FREEZING 850 MBTEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FORANOTHER WAVE REAMPLIFYING THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICOSATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THEREREMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEMAND THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DEGREE OF ARAIN/SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE TO BE FEATURED...WITH FROZEN PTYPES MORELIKELY IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHWESTFLOW MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WRING OUT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THEWESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REGION SHOULD REMAINUNDER A BROAD EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHERREINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Encouraging trends on the last 3 GFS runs imo. It has taken the Sunday storm from a central Mexico to Cuba track, closer and closer to a Miller A track. Hopefully it doesn't end up full on cutter in a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 6z looks even better with the follow-up wave! I would like to see it go negative tilt a little quicker but it has trended in our favor so far on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Depending on where you reside in the SE, neg tilt should occur near the MS river or just east. For us here in E NC, we usually like to see the FL panhandle for the hard right turn. While the embedded shortwave kind of turned on the GFS, the long wave axis is still clearly positive, hence no sig strengthening of the slp as it exits stage right. Hello sir, Ck your PM's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 not gonna lie, pretty bummed about the euro and eps last night. the doc went the other way, the cold press was bleh as well. Today could be a nice and telling day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Encouraging trends on the last 3 GFS runs imo. It has taken the Sunday storm from a central Mexico to Cuba track, closer and closer to a Miller A track. Hopefully it doesn't end up full on cutter in a few runs. It's possible for it to trend far westward but not likely. The overall pattern setup would have to change considerably and we're now within the range where that becomes unlikely. But a trend back south/east and weaker (like 0z) is still a real possibility. We just need to hope the next run continue to trend in our favor. I will feel good if the 12z models tomorrow still have our storm; and of course stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GEFS has some decent lows off OBX Monday. Trend or blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GEFS has some decent lows off OBX Monday. Trend or blip. If something is going to trend in our favor this is the time for it to do it. As other have stated, it will probably be the 3/4 day range when storms show up (...because of the blocking and terrible model output). So on to the 12z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Check out how the GFS has adjusted for Friday: https://twitter.com/eastwx/status/686868969492475904 Can the same happen Sunday? Yep. If the trough sharpens/ goes negative in the Gulf a little sooner, there you go. However, it's also quite possible the northern branch energy moves a little too fast, a la Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Sunday system seems unlikely given the close proximity to the departing and previous system, which will still be delivering a dry NW flow across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I disagree. I think the Sunday system is much more likely than the Tuesday system. I Think the cold press will really squash the Tuesday hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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