Stormcatt Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Many members showing light amounts Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro Ens mean has a swath of light snow or wintry precip across a good portion of the south from hr 126 to 156 (down into central AL/GA/SC) so there must be some members showing a storm in that timeframe The setup Sunday where the Op had the squashed wave looks very similar to everyone's favorite snow event in Atlanta...or if you're older than 40 everyone's 2nd favorite snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The setup Sunday where the Op had the squashed wave looks very similar to everyone's favorite snow event in Atlanta...or if you're older than 40 everyone's 2nd favorite snow event.You are referencing last years snow that snuck up on everyone, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Let me go ahead and let Phil know that the Control gives the Florida panhandle some Wintry. But. It's the control.. I'll take control, or even my dog getting a limp to hint at something at at this point! Thanks! Phil PS - I'll not "take" control - but will gladly take the control run, fwiw!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It looks like the maps on WxBell seem to be skewed by three members who drop significant snowfall(at least for the weekend here). Looks like most are relatively snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 You are referencing last years snow that snuck up on everyone, correct? Snowjam of 1982? and NGA I think your referring to 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The setup Sunday where the Op had the squashed wave looks very similar to everyone's favorite snow event in Atlanta...or if you're older than 40 everyone's 2nd favorite snow event. 1993 would be one... the first SnowJam the 2nd one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Snowjam of 1982? and NGA I think your referring to 2014. You're right. 2014. Still had 2015 in my head. But I certainly see the similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It looks like the maps on WxBell seem to be skewed by three members who drop significant snowfall(at least for the weekend here). Looks like most are relatively snowless. Just getting a cold high in here would be a win at this point...sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Update from our pros at KGSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I would watch the 17-19th timeframe closely, I just checked the high res Euro (parallel) ensemble members from the 00z run last night and they're very impressive for RDU. The 12z run isn't out yet but a large number agree on at least light snow for the RDU area between January 17-19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Here' RAH for this weekend into next week: SAT-MON: THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION INDEX HAS STEADILY DECREASED SINCENEW YEARS DAY AND IS CURRENTLY ~3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE AO WILL BOTTOM OUT AND BEGIN TOINCREASE SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH POINT (THE INFLECTION POINT)AN INCREASINGLY VOLATILE/COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TOEVOLVE OVER THE LOWER 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITHREGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY/MIDNEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN DIFFICULT (IF NOTIMPOSSIBLE) TO ASCERTAIN...LET ALONE SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING/PTYPE/AMOUNTS. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Fishel just said the real cold stuff comes next week. but still no signs of any white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Compare this euro ENS mean to ones I've previously posted and you'll notice how much has changed...even overnight, high pressure is modeled stronger with a few sub 1000mb lows in the right place. One member pictured leads to an insane even for NC. This is nowhere close to being over. Until the ensembles lose the systems and just show cold, I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Not impressed any more (not that I was ever very excited in the first place). Cold, but not brutal, snow chances look slim to me now. Ensemble means have backed way off, not even any Op fantasy storm any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 In some ways the models kind of remind me of that dreaded 2012 winter. In that the pac jet is raging havoc on things. The big difference this go round is blocking looks real and the cold does appear to actually be showing up in a real way. I like that systems are being pushed down to Cuba basically. I know people love the fantasy snow but I would rather see this keep happening. I know I'm echoing others and what I've said before but we need the cold first. I'll take "too cold to snow" pattern and take my chances over marginal cold setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 In some ways the models kind of remind me of that dreaded 2012 winter. In that the pac jet is raging havoc on things. The big difference this go round is blocking looks real and the cold does appear to actually be showing up in a real way. I like that systems are being pushed down to Cuba basically. I know people love the fantasy snow but I would rather see this keep happening. I know I'm echoing others and what I've said before but we need the cold first. I'll take "too cold to snow" pattern and take my chances over marginal cold setup. Even an amateur like myself can loop the GFS and just watch wave after wave after wave crash into Oregon/Washington and NOTHING entering in SoCAL. That's simply not going to work. How do we even have a +PNA with that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Fishel just reiterated, he doesn't see anything close to frozen precip in the forecast for the next 7-10 days. "I'm just not seeing it" was his direct quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS has the hot hand IMO so far this winter. 18z run shows the farther north and warmer solution once again during our time of interest compared to the Euro suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 There seems to be a plume of moisture off the TX and LA coast currently ???? http://wxweb.meteostar.com/radar/site/HGX.shtml?HGX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS has the hot hand IMO so far this winter. 18z run shows the farther north and warmer solution once again during our time of interest compared to the Euro suiteLiteral hot hand or figuratively? Haha. What makes you say that? jw, I haven't looked at performance lately between models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS has the hot hand IMO so far this winter. 18z run shows the farther north and warmer solution once again during our time of interest compared to the Euro suite The GEFS is colder than the OP but nothing really sticks out storm wise Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Literal hot hand or figuratively? Haha. What makes you say that? jw, I haven't looked at performance lately between models. In order, the top 3 were EURO-Para - EURO - GFS, but they were all within .03 of each other and all above 0.900%. At least at 500mb. Not sure of how far out. Someone posted the verification scores earlier in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Literal hot hand or figuratively? Haha. What makes you say that? jw, I haven't looked at performance lately between models. My take fwiw and then please go lol all indicies should have us in the freezer, but nada. i think this el nino in conjunction with the rest of the set up is a new kid on the block and that the pattern is not something any model, or us, can wrap a head around. so - NAO is trending to neutral or a bit above. AAO stays way negative and PNA stays positive. So just out of pure speculation - what if a relax in the NAO causes the players to line up better on the el nino field? just thinking out loud, so to speak. i can't find any research on such a pattern, so it's gut .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 In order, the top 3 were EURO-Para - EURO - GFS, but they were all within .03 of each other and all above 0.900%. At least at 500mb. Not sure of how far out. Someone posted the verification scores earlier in the thread.Yeah here they are fwiw. was just wondering if he meant in terms of s/w's, cold, or something else specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Fishel just reiterated, he doesn't see anything close to frozen precip in the forecast for the next 7-10 days. "I'm just not seeing it" was his direct quote. WRAL will not tell you it's going to snow even when we watch it come acrossed the country and it is snowing in Winston Salem headed east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 My take fwiw and then please go lol all indicies should have us in the freezer, but nada. i think this el nino in conjunction with the rest of the set up is a new kid on the block and that the pattern is not something any model, or us, can wrap a head around. so - NAO is trending to neutral or a bit above. AAO stays way negative and PNA stays positive. So just out of pure speculation - what if a relax in the NAO causes the players to line up better on the el nino field? just thinking out loud, so to speak. i can't find any research on such a pattern, so it's gut .... It may be as simple as moisture overwhelming the cold in Strong El Nino years. 57-57 is an anomaly, other than that we aren't really in a deep freezer during Strong El Ninos. We see an inverse relationship w/ regard to cold and moisture here in NC. While it is colder relative to the average, and it is wetter relative to the average, you still see in inverse relationship w/ regard to departure from mean. I'm still doing research on this so it may be a fallacy but they seem correlated as of now. Take these strong Nino years for example: 1957-58: RDU Temp Anomaly (DJF): -4.2 RDU Precip Anomaly (DJF): +0.29 1972-73: RDU Temp Anomaly (DJF): -1.1 RDU Precip Anomaly (DJF): +3.38 1982-83: RDU Temp Anomaly (DJF): -0.9 RDU Precip Anomaly (DJF): +2.01 1997-98 RDU Temp Anomaly (DJF): +0.8 RDU Precip Anomaly (DJF): +6.23 The Dec Temps and Moisture that match our Dec 2015 is not 1957....not 1997 either...it's 1982 (from what I've found so far). Even though it took until Feb to flip to a -AO/-NAO combo in 82-83, we had above average snowfall and 4 events here in NC. Jan 21, Feb 6, 10, March 24. March pretty much put us above average....all it takes is one event, this year shouldn't be any different. Of course, I agree...this DJF season will be analyzed for years to come, one of a kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 WRAL will not tell you it's going to snow even when we watch it come acrossed the country and it is snowing in Winston Salem headed east... If it's snowing in Winston I will be calling you Ray. Don't worry. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If it's snowing in Winston I will be calling you Ray. Don't worry. Lol I know you would. I was trying to make the point that WRAL will not call for snow unless it is snowing at their station... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Fishel just reiterated, he doesn't see anything close to frozen precip in the forecast for the next 7-10 days. "I'm just not seeing it" was his direct quote. He wouldn't see it no matter what until at least 48 hours out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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