Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It cuts off and kinda takes it's sweet time.. Something in my gut tells me it isn't a bad look at all.. and I rarely have that feeling with these later hour model runs. The GEFS / Spaghetti plots may be more telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertssister Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS for today 120 hours out: And the ECMWF: Versus the actual: Hope this helps. This really helps me understand the aforementioned topic a lot! You are so knowledgeable for a n00b )) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like there might not be a big storm signal on the 12z GEFS for that OP threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like there might not be a big storm signal on the 12z GEFS for that OP threat. Nope. Looks similar to the op in that the storm gets squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Nope. Looks similar to the op in that the storm gets squashed.Right where we want it now! The 23rd-31st looks interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pretty horrific run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yesterday and today was a big winter event for us in Georgia in 2011 http://www.northgeorgiawx.com/ga-weather-events/2011-january-10-11-southeast-winter-storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pretty horrific run of the GFS.Don't look at the CMC then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pretty horrific run of the GFS. Uggh...so much for index chasing. Back to the drawing board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 11m11 minutes ago Last 30-days global model skill [5-days NHemi 500-mb height] ECMWF op: 0.928 ECMWF par: 0.931 GFS: 0.905 Looks like we should be giving more weight to the parallel EURO for those with access. I believe this is the second month in a a row for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That .905 for the GFS is really nothing to sneeze at for 5 days. The Para Euro is nice and all but the lagg time is a bit annoying. Isn't 1.0 perfect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I've always wondered what exactly is being measured in a verification score? Temperatures for random locations? Positions of lows and highs? Precip amounts? Does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 11m11 minutes ago Last 30-days global model skill [5-days NHemi 500-mb height] ECMWF op: 0.928 ECMWF par: 0.931 GFS: 0.905 Looks like we should be giving more weight to the parallel EURO for those with access. I believe this is the second month in a a row for this. A 30-day avg difference of a couple hundredths in NA H5 Z skill has little to no impact operationally. In fact, no impact whatsoever is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I've always wondered what exactly is being measured in a verification score? Temperatures for random locations? Positions of lows and highs? Precip amounts? Does anyone know? I think that post says at 500mb.... troughs, ridges, etc the stuff that we care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Interesting read about the ECMWF vs. the GFS: http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/69/1/10.1063/PT.3.3046 Some say the superiority of the ECMWF is overblown. “It’s better, but not that much better,” says Maue. When averaged across the world, the European model is more accurate to one-quarter to one-half a day further out than the American model. In other words, the ECMWF’s 5.5-day forecast has typically the same skill as a GFS 5-day forecast, he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I think that post says at 500mb.... troughs, ridges, etc the stuff that we care about. Thanks. I missed it in the tweet. I still wonder how it is calculated. I'm sure it's complicated. I guess the takeaway is the ranking of the models, but what it's measuring and how it's calculated seems important to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Don't look at the CMC then Too late. Uggh...so much for index chasing. Back to the drawing board. The whole thing needs to go into the recycle bin at this point, followed by a reboot. Did NCrain hack your account ! How are the dandelions? At least we have the analogues, Larry Cosgrove, and a Strat assault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The whole thing needs to go into the recycle bin at this point, followed by a reboot. What whole thing? Index chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Uggh...so much for index chasing. Back to the drawing board. If we only go out to day 7 on the GFS(which could still be too much), this setup up is not bad. We just need a slightly different look for that SW system as it moves east. We need to continue to keep an eye on this time period. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=168&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160111+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Don't look at the CMC then it's not a good look when it changes over Detroit to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 What whole thing? Index chasing? The whole pattern. I don't like where it looks like it's going. I guess model storm chasing and index chasing is fine. There's nothing else to do. I mean, hopefully, people really understand just because indexes say something doesn't mean we're getting a snowstorm. Still like seeing a Greenland block, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro trying so. hard. in the. shorter. range. Edit: Well, its something I guess. Better than hour 240 "closeness" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 man euro wasnt far off at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Here comes the next piece of energy after (2?) near misses... 1044 wants to drop in but so slowww. These ensembles might be fun or is the OP out of it's mind? Stay tuned. Well, this is gonna be interesting in the later hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro trying so. hard. in the. shorter. range. Edit: Well, its something I guess. Better than hour 240 "closeness" As discussed in Banter, this could trend better within the 5/6 day period. We don't need much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 1044mb+ sfc high in Iowa at hr180. Height pattern is squashed south. Wintry precip deep into TX. 850 0 deg from Waycross to Austin, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro was close to a phase day 5 then close again day 7/8 just need the southern vort to kick faster Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Encouraging Euro run. EPS will be fun for everyone I hope. I like seeing chances within the 192 and before hours. Finally. By 192 a potent storm trying to take shape and it's pretty darn cold. Good signs. 1045HP over Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 As discussed in Banter, this could trend better within the 5/6 day period. We don't need much.How are temps? Is that what's close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Great to see some threats showing up not far away. Just need a little help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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