packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 CLT best climo for snow is strong nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I do not buy this at all. Looks good in general but not for ATL, and with 17 inches of water in DEC this pattern is not correct. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I think that when we look back on this winter, we will realize that anything beyond two or three days was fantasy and long range. Good. Keep that in mind if you happen to look at the weeklies. In fact, don't do it. Let's focus on 16-17th for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Good. Keep that in mind if you happen to look at the weeklies. In fact, don't do it. Let's focus on 16-17th for now. Para weeklies look pretty good, typical strong Nino pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Good. Keep that in mind if you happen to look at the weeklies. In fact, don't do it. Let's focus on 16-17th for now. Weeklies suck in strong Ninos. Go with the Can Sips or the Atari 2300 model that Jon likes to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Weeklies suck in strong Ninos. Go with the Can Sips or the Atari 2300 model that Jon likes to post.jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just for Mack....should keep him quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The 18z operational keeps the coldest of air west of the mountains, but I'm sure that isn't worth to much at this point. Actually, that could work in our favor this time by preventing the super cold and dry air from pushing our storm out to sea. Don't worry, it will still be plenty cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just for Mack....should keep him quiet. Good grief! 50-75" of snow! He's got to be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Good grief! 50-75" of snow! He's got to be happy with that. too funny .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Only 50 more model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 Good grief! 50-75" of snow! He's got to be happy with that. actually pretty impressive with the coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 actually pretty impressive with the coverage Yeah, it's actually getting close to giving Phil some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 actually pretty impressive with the coverage Agreed, I like odds on something 12-20th. Would be surprising if the mtns don't hit something at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 From Francesco Paparatto: Wave 2 event coming to an end soon and the upper Strat still remains strong/cold. Split highly unlikely this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Has Cohen lost all credibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 So is this winter cancel after the second wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Has Cohen lost all credibility? He is really smart but his theory is flawed, snow cover is a small, very small part of what drives blocking. Good news is we don't necessarily need a SSWE this winter for snow, I hope. If a Nina or even neutral winter occurs next winter then we will need blocking and potentially SSWE to trigger it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Weeklies suck in strong Ninos. Go with the Can Sips or the Atari 2300 model that Jon likes to post. They suck all the time IMO. I've only followed them for 2-3 years and they haven't performed well in any of the winters beyond 2 weeks. For whatever reason in weeks 3-4 they tend to want to go zonal a lot of the time it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 He is really smart but his theory is flawed, snow cover is a small, very small part of what drives blocking. Good news is we don't necessarily need a SSWE this winter for snow, I hope. If a Nina or even neutral winter occurs next winter then we will need blocking and potentially SSWE to trigger it. I agree that we don't need a SSWE. Cohen has been laying out the groundwork for one for two winters. If there is not one this winter, he should go back to the drawing board. Perhaps he can learn from busting and tweak his line of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I don't have the tools at my disposal right now and won't until late tonight. Referring to Buckey1 immediately above, can anyone shed light on what the major indices were like Jan & Feb of 1998? (AO, NAO, EPO, PNA etc). I'd like to look and see how they correlate with what we're looking at for the foreseeable future (15 days out or so). The composite map I generated was quite warm for those 8 weeks. If we're ranking with 1997 how was the winter that year. I hope snowy from mid Jan. on. That was winter '97 - '98 and Jan/Feb were warm. If anyone can answer my post at #92 above, it might shed some light, however dim, on a possible correlation, if any. December 97 was cold and snowy. Rest of the winter was warm and wet. I think Nashville had a nice snowstorm in Feb 98. 97-98 was the wettest Strong Nino on record, and one of the wettest Ninos if not the wettest. Very active STJ, ranking the winter in the 90th percentile for the SE and east. Not sure why this title is messed up, but it's Percentile ranking (higher the #, the wetter the winter)...97-98 may be the wettest winter on record, regardless of enso. Here's what I have for the indices (may be wrong, they're from my personal spreadsheet) 1997-98 AO: D -0.071 J -2.081 F -0.183 NAO: D -0.96 J 0.39 F -0.11 Not a terrible look, but the strong southern jet overpowered the pattern and we simply never got cold. That shouldn't happen this winter, as we're seeing signs of cold shots in the extended period. Here's a 28 page technical report for fun reading: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9802/tr9802.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 97-98 was the wettest Strong Nino on record, and one of the wettest Ninos if not the wettest. Very active STJ, ranking the winter in the 90th percentile for the SE and east. Not sure why this title is messed up, but it's Percentile ranking (higher the #, the wetter the winter)...97-98 may be the wettest winter on record, regardless of enso. Here's what I have for the indices (may be wrong, they're from my personal spreadsheet) 1997-98 AO: D -0.071 J -2.081 F -0.183 NAO: D -0.96 J 0.39 F -0.11 Not a terrible look, but the strong southern jet overpowered the pattern and we simply never got cold. That's not happening this winter.. That shouldn't happen this winter, as we're seeing signs of cold shots in the extended period. Here's a 28 page technical report for fun reading: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9802/tr9802.pdf I agree, I don't see the pac low setting up in the GOAK all winter, it will/should move into a more favorable spot. That's assuming the GEFS/EPS are correct in setting it up there in the midterm. Let's not forget that 09/10 didn't get going until end of Jan into Feb when all heck broke lose. If it wasn't for that fluke mid-Dec event we would be at exactly the same spot. I don't think we will see the cold from end of Jan through early March that 09/10 had but I don't think we see the warmth of 98 either. 1.2 has fallen off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The Global Warmer guy in the NY Metro forum was really hung ho on the east based Nino confit this winter. It certainly doesn't look like 97-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The Global Warmer guy in the NY Metro forum was really hung ho on the east based Nino confit this winter. It certainly doesn't look like 97-98.No this is a different beast all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well the 18z suite shows how this can work. Let's see where we go from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Cohen is almost ready to throw in the towel on a SSWE this winter...in a nutshell since the AO is already negative it inhibits it. We can safely toss that theory aside, it's about as valuable as the mole that sees his shadow. I agree. The whole point of a SSWE is getting into a more stormy pattern with a flip in the AO...since we're already flipped way negative, we don't need one. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Snow Niner, O Snow Niner, where art thou? Check out hour 300 on the 18z! lol, who dat dun called my name? Ha, I'll take it! I prefer my fantasy storms to be in the 7-10 day variety but I guess beggars can't be choosers! Game on, winter un-cancel!! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I agree. The whole point of a SSWE is getting into a more stormy pattern with a flip in the AO...since we're already flipped way negative, we don't need one. haha.I need to read more on it, but my guess is that SSW induces greater potential for more severe and longer lasting blocking as opposed to -AO caused by tropospheric processes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I need to read more on it, but my guess is that SSW induces greater potential for more severe and longer lasting blocking as opposed to -AO caused by tropospheric processes Parade rainer oner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 They suck all the time IMO. I've only followed them for 2-3 years and they haven't performed well in any of the winters beyond 2 weeks. For whatever reason in weeks 3-4 they tend to want to go zonal a lot of the time it seems I agree with this. And thanks for posting in our forum. Always appreciate reading your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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