January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[FallsLake]

That model sucks. Why do you even look at it? I mean, why do you need to know a "modeled" projection at day 8 anyway?  

Most on here are smart enough to not get excited until the potential event gets to day 6 or 7. If we can just look past the details (like the beautiful storm shown at day 12), the models can be useful for showing how the overall pattern is setting up. **like instead of saying there is a storm at day 12; say the model is continuing to show blocking and cold.  

[isohume]

Most on here are smart enough to not get excited until the potential event gets to day 6 or 7. If we can just look past the details (like the beautiful storm shown at day 12), the models can be useful for showing how the overall pattern is setting up. **like instead of saying there is a storm at day 12; say the model is continuing to show blocking and cold.  

 

I understand the excitement thing and tracking modeled storms...but the snarky stuff is childish. 

[FallsLake]

I understand the excitement thing and tracking modeled storms...but the snarky stuff is childish. 

I totally agree. This is a great hobby (and great job for you). No reason to get upset about things that are out of your control.

 

I did like the 6z GFS. As others have stated no real threats in the next 5 to 7 days, but there will be a chance of threats after that period.....All we can hope for at this point.

[NCSNOW]

0z euro is looking good from next weekend onward. Has the artic hounds on the way. Like the way things are progressing. No slam dunks yet, but when is there ever.

[isohume]

I totally agree. This is a great hobby (and great job for you). No reason to get upset about things that are out of your control.

 

I did like the 6z GFS. As others have stated no real threats in the next 5 to 7 days, but there will be a chance of threats after that period.....All we can hope for at this point.

 

Yep. If I had a hobby that upset me every other day, I'd find a new hobby.  

[Hammer]

Yep. If I had a hobby that upset me every other day, I'd find a new hobby.  

+1 (sorry - I know this is on the verge of banter).

[Stormcatt]

00z euro para was really close to popping something on Sunday with the diving vort through Texas

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[buckeyefan1]

I understand the excitement thing and tracking modeled storms...but the snarky stuff is childish. 

Indeed....the amount of childish behavior increases every day here. Especially when someone points out it's not going to snow and how every threat continues to get pushed back to 10 days and beyond. Warm and wet is the theme so far and remember.....CLOSE only counts in horseshoes    

[DopplerWx]

Indeed....the amount of childish behavior increases every day here. Especially when someone points out it's not going to snow and how every threat continues to get pushed back to 10 days and beyond. Warm and wet is the theme so far and remember.....CLOSE only counts in horseshoes  

agree. people forget we live in the south.  we have the same issues even leading up to winter...people act like we have to have wall to wall frigid temps to get snow and if the weather channel shows highs in the 50s next week then it is winter cancel.  every winter the majority of us see snow, no need to cliff jump on jan 11th.  

[Met1985]

Yep. If I had a hobby that upset me every other day, I'd find a new hobby.

Lol exactly. Iv learned it's weather. Big deal you win some and lose some. Also thanks for spending some time on the forum.

[Wow]

I'll still liking the chances of the Jan 17-18 period.  Ensembles still show ample support for a big storm as long as the entire PV doesn't drop in and phase, pulling the low toward the lakes.

[Cold Rain]

Well, the Ops were pretty bad last night until the (what a shock) D10+ time frame.  Looks like they want to break down the strong blocking in the LR.  That has been the trend.  I really don't care what they show as far as individual LR storm threats, since we all know that changes from run to run.  But the LR isn't heading in the right direction.  Maybe it's a relax and reload situation, as I doubt we go back into an extended warm pattern.  But what will we be reloading?  Seasonal, with bouts of rain?  Who knows.

 

It would be nice to see a move toward maintaining/rebuilding blocking, as well as getting the PV out of central Canada.  I'm also a little concerned about all of the storms that keep rolling through the GOA.  Somebody else can tell me whether or not that's a legitimate problem, but it seems like they are beating the PNA ridge down enough to keep Canada from getting too cold and to keep systems from being able to dig far enough south.

 

I hope that this week, we can start to rebuild some positive pattern trends in the LR.

[BristowWx]

I'll still liking the chances of the Jan 17-18 period.  Ensembles still show ample support for a big storm as long as the entire PV doesn't drop in and phase, pulling the low toward the lakes.

and that looks to be the time when the -AO goes to +AO...isn't that when things pop

[Jon]

I'll still liking the chances of the Jan 17-18 period. Ensembles still show ample support for a big storm as long as the entire PV doesn't drop in and phase, pulling the low toward the lakes.

Agree, trend in eps has been great IMO. Nice cluster of lows in the SE with a stronger hp modeled

Compared to 2 runs ago

[mrdaddyman]

Agree, trend in eps has been great IMO. Nice cluster of lows in the SE with a stronger hp modeled

Compared to 2 runs ago

 

Jon, shouldn't that HP be over the NE? If it's too far West won't it allow the LP to cut?

[Stormcatt]

Agree, trend in eps has been great IMO. Nice cluster of lows in the SE with a stronger hp modeled

Compared to 2 runs ago

To follow up..... 00z euro para

00z euro

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[DopplerWx]

re: the sunday/monday threat.  the eps is what you want to see. op runs of the gfs and euro will swing with each run, but with the solutions shown above it remeinds me of storms in the past where the op runs latched on 3-4 days out.  rarely do we get a big dog modeled continuously 8-9 days out.  the hits shown on op runs in the days prior didn't really need to cause excitement, as the ensembles didn;t show anything remotely close...but with the ensembles now showing promising low placements and a strong hp it certainly gives cause to keep an eye on it as the week goes on.

[FallsLake]

The indices are slightly better than yesterday:

 

PNA - About the same as yesterday. Averages about +1 from now to the LR. **This has been very consistent.

AO - Averages slightly more negative. Must be noted that two members go strongly positive while the rest stay negative in the LR.

NAO - Better than yesterday (which took most members positive in LR). Now heads towards neutral but still slightly negative in the LR.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[BullCityWx]

EPS probability maps gives a lot of the piedmont a 10-20% chance of 1" of snow on sunday. I still dont think it'll be much but it does raise intrigue a bit. 

[NCSNOW]

It wouldnt be a great deal but the euro did advertise the idea of first flakes for most areas who havent seen them on Sunday.

We are all gonna see alot of flakes on Sunday that blow down from seattle. Probably have a few thugs mixed in as well.

[Shawn]

Just to make some feel better... woke up to weather channel interviewing their long range/wsi guys and they speak of the potential being real and not showing up until closer.. they are all in on the pattern producing a big east coast storm.

 

yada yada all said here. but i am now convinced they read this website.

[griteater]

Write-up from HM.....

 

"Something always didn't sit right with me about the upcoming 10 days. I clearly see the -NAO, the -AO, the split flow etc. but yet my mind was sort of cautious when it came to the epic cold/snow calls. There are things in the back of my mind that are keeping me from hyping this period more than usual. Obviously the progressive, active Pacific Jet aided by a very strong El Niño would be 1 concern.

 

Strong GWO orbits in higher AAM states happen a lot in El Niño. However, the current orbit is 1 of the strongest I've ever seen. It reflects a gradually increasing AAM state in an already exceptionally high AAM state. El Niño has now perfectly coupled with the atmosphere leading to classic STJ and N PAC circulation. The combination of factors ahead: -AO, -NAO, very strong El Niño and strong GWO orbit has only happened twice in January...1958 and 1983. If you become more loose with NAO/AO, then suddenly 1998 jumps in there. The composite yields a polar to west based NAO ridge. Go figure.

 

Regardless of how the active train of waves transpire over the next 10 days, the pattern will develop into a classic precursor SSW one:

1. Strong NE PAC low

2. Strong anticyclone over Siberia/NAO

3. Shift in mass over East Asia leading to a +MT

 

The third point is likely the direct catalyst for warming in the upper stratosphere at the end of ensembles. The wave 1 configuration in stratospheric heights, on the other hand, is from the first 2 points. Although, it should be noted that the Siberian High is what descends down the eastern slopes, causing the +MT.

 

Initially, this may all favor an increasing AO/NAO and then a likely jet extension in final week of Jan. We could temporarily go back to a more classic Niño pattern across America. However, I think this will all lead to a legit SSW and secondary AO tank next month. A period of exceptional snow potential would be possible as the SSW downwells and MJO possibly comes around again mid Feb.

 

I don't mean to belittle the next 2 weeks; they certainly have potential and I think we'll see snow. I'm just not confident enough in a pattern like this, one where many things are opposing each other, to get cute and say "Kocin Storm coming."

[Poimen]

GFS looks close to a phase by day 7-8, FWIW.

[Jon]

Jon, shouldn't that HP be over the NE? If it's too far West won't it allow the LP to cut?

We would love a different cold air source but that high pressure location is more than enough for snow if the low bombs and tracks favorably.

[DopplerWx]

gfs with another totally diff look at 192, low cranking in the gulf.  will look diff again by 18z im sure.

[Shawn]

Well tbh, there was Winter weather down intol MS, LA this GFS run within the 192 hour area... better than 200 hrs +

[packfan98]

gfs with another totally diff look at 192, low cranking in the gulf.  will look diff again by 18z im sure.

It gets squashed.  Not a bad look though.  The energy was strong.  Nothing to freak out about one way or the other.

[griteater]

It gets squashed.  Not a bad look though.  The energy was strong.  Nothing to freak out about one way or the other.

12z is basically saying we get one shot when that high comes down into the plains (if it actually does come down into the plains)

[Wow]

a little stronger with the s/w and it's a hit

 

[packfan98]

a little stronger with the s/w and it's a hit

 

 

Agreed.  Plus it has been getting stronger than on previous runs.  That is a known GFS bias for the energy to hang on longer and stronger as a storm approaches.  This with the suppression bias of the GFS makes me think we are not in a bad position right now.  Plus if we can get the storm to turn the corner, it would completely change what comes next.  That's probably one of the reasons no long term model can be trusted past the next shortwave.