January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[isohume]

If someone knows please shed some light on something. Aren't the upgrades they are applying to these models give them higher resolution output? If so, isn't that just higher resolution crap? I mean, shouldn't they work on actually getting them more accurate and useful first?

It's not just the resolutions that get upgraded. The physics, land model, param shemes etc also get upgraded. Models are always going to have sigfnt limitations due to many factors. They are to be used as objective guidance...not as accurate fcst depictions.

[BIG FROSTY]

Yeah the clown maps dont help. We only output storm total snowfall maps within day 4. I wish we'd cut that to day 3 tho. It always changes and folks sometimes flip out over that.

Mods move this all to banter if you want. Dont want to clog this thread.

Well this is one part of your job you don't have to worry about much, in the SE.............lol

[isohume]

Well this is one part of your job you don't have to worry about much, in the SE.............lol

Oh but when we do, it takes on the world of importance down here.

[No snow for you]

I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

Go talk to Chris Justice who put the 12z GFS on his Facebook page.

[isohume]

Go talk to Chris Justice who put the 12z GFS on his Facebook page.

No thanks. He's probably one of the worst hypsters out there. It makes it much worse when internet or media mets do this because folks trust them.

[buckeyefan1]

Yeah the clown maps dont help. We only output storm total snowfall maps within day 4. I wish we'd cut that to day 3 tho. It always changes and folks sometimes flip out over that.

Mods move this all to banter if you want. Dont want to clog this thread.

I wouldn't dare     You are preachin to the choir sir     Anyone can take a frame and hype whatever theory they are trying to portray, but it takes some real skill to see an over all picture and make an accurate forecast. It's all about that ego....nothing more and nothing less. Those that follow them are just as much to blame because they don't bother doing their research to see if it is even remotely correct, then get butthurt when it's pointed out that its wrong/hyped. Human ego + the easy button =     

[Stormsfury]

Lessons learned from the last 2 winters in particular. With all the s/w's flying around, not to mention such a hauling ass SBJ (170kts+), objective guidance constantly can't catch or playing catch up every run.

Models won't key in on players, other s/w's not in sampled regions, and given the drastic distances currents are moving, well, there you go.

The picture won't be clearer until we get into about the 3-4 day range, and we all know how God-awful the GFS handles the SBJ. We will be playing this guessing game until we get into a stable and/or blockier pattern to slow things down. Model guidance has almost never performed well in such fast flow situations in the MR and LR.

I still think the GFS should only be run twice a day or at least, the 6z/18z runs only run out to 120hrs at the most. JHMO

[deltadog03]

Iam not a huge fan of trying to limit data.  I don't think we should do that.  There really isn't a way to stop this.  Not going to happen...What pisses me off the most is when mets will post crap like its the long range we don't buy and there is no skill etc....and yet they post a clown map just to keep the post driving.  I do it occasionally for people who want to learn and can't or don't have access to stuff.  I make sure the post is understood that its not a forecast per say, but trends or whatever....in the end, people will do and believe what they want..

[deltadog03]

Lessons learned from the last 2 winters in particular. With all the s/w's flying around, not to mention such a hauling ass SBJ (170kts+), objective guidance constantly can't catch or playing catch up every run.

Models won't key in on players, other s/w's not in sampled regions, and given the drastic distances currents are moving, well, there you go.

The picture won't be clearer until we get into about the 3-4 day range, and we all know how God-awful the GFS handles the SBJ. We will be playing this guessing game until we get into a stable and/or blockier pattern to slow things down. Model guidance has almost never performed well in such fast flow situations in the MR and LR.

I still think the GFS should only be run twice a day or at least, the 6z/18z runs only run out to 120hrs at the most. JHMO

I FULLY agree with this..why run the damn model on the longer ranges on "off hours"  hell limit the op run to 240 hours anyway.  oh better yet..destryo the damn GFS And rebuild it to actually compete with the world..

[TiltedStorm]

Lessons learned from the last 2 winters in particular. With all the s/w's flying around, not to mention such a hauling ass SBJ (170kts+), objective guidance constantly can't catch or playing catch up every run.

Models won't key in on players, other s/w's not in sampled regions, and given the drastic distances currents are moving, well, there you go.

The picture won't be clearer until we get into about the 3-4 day range, and we all know how God-awful the GFS handles the SBJ. We will be playing this guessing game until we get into a stable and/or blockier pattern to slow things down. Model guidance has almost never performed well in such fast flow situations in the MR and LR.

I still think the GFS should only be run twice a day or at least, the 6z/18z runs only run out to 120hrs at the most. JHMO

 

what is s/w's abbreviated for? and SBJ?

[mackerel_sky]

what is s/w's abbreviated for? and SBJ?

Short wave and I think subtropical jetstream?

[No snow for you]

Euro operational teleconnections are just wow. It wants to take the AO to +3 and the NAO to +3 as well. It is going straight up. Hope it does not come to pass. 

[Shawn]

I've learned over the years of being here when certain posters return or start talking, to pay attention to the weather over the next couple of weeks.  4 or 5 have returned in the last week, and that's always a plus.

 

The 18z GEFS still doesn't have a huge snowstorm signal across it's mean through 384.  0.5-1.0 or so for some areas like NW SC, NC areas.  Maybe NW GA included.

[Stormsfury]

Short wave and I think subtropical jetstream?

Correct on both.

[BristowWx]

Euro operational teleconnections are just wow. It wants to take the AO to +3 and the NAO to +3 as well. It is going straight up. Hope it does not come to pass.

I don't buy it. So much model mayhem nothing is real at this point. And considering all we have shoveled so far is lots of pattern I am not sure shuffling the indices would be a bad thing.

[Shawn]

I don't like this 00z GFS run coming out.  Good luck boys.  I can't watch it anymore.  Cutting off gorgeous energy over Kansas makes me sad.

 

That +10 2m line all the way to the Central Plains(over into Mizzou).  Mmm.. Miller A wannabe thing with +10 for us. Mmm

[wh_adkins01]

Wholesale changes once again with 0z Goofus...@ 192 curious where she goes

[Jonathan]

Wholesale changes once again with 0z Goofus...@ 192 curious where she goes

 

Key West Squashed by that big low in the northeast.

 

Every storm is either a Cut or a Crush. There is no inbetween.

 

EDIT: Woo! It's an official GFS run now! There's the D10 threat!

[griteater]

My main takeaway from the GFS run was that the cold high coming into North Dakota was delayed for a couple of days from previous runs.  Run was great after that, but again, if the high is delayed or isn't there at all come go time, nothing else matters

[superjames1992]

No discussion on the D12 HECS on the 00z GFS? Haha.

[snowlover91]

The main takeaway from tonight's GFS and CMC runs are that we have some decent opportunities in the 16-23 timeframe. The exact timing, track and other details are tough to nail down but they've inconsistently hinted at snow storms during this time. Interestingly enough while the 12z Euro didn't have any snow the new high-res version did for January 17-18th. Much of this will depend on the evolution of the 14-15th system which may actually set up the cold air we need if it intensifies more like recent model runs indicate.

[superjames1992]

Pretty good cold outbreak on the Euro D8.

[JoshM]

Pretty good cold outbreak on the Euro D8.

 

Canadian was showing similar cold, just assumed it was it's usual bias.

[Jon]

Morning all. Potent high with several lows in the right place on the 00z GFS ensemble mean for 1/20. Previous runs didn't have this agreement, while small, it's hopeful of a system and not just an overwhelming high pressure over our area.

1/18 could still work out as the cutter and coastal move out, there are lagging low pressures forming off the coast with cold moving in...but as grit said the cold isn't there like it is for the 1/20 threat. For now i think it's important to keep looking for trends simply in the high for 1/18 and watching how far that can bleed down, but waiting two days for 1/20 won't kill us and that looks a lot more hopeful at this time. However, with that said as snowlover and others have pointed out this still isn't set in stone. Once the shortwaves are sampled, the Op runs will start nailing down the systems and we should find out in the next few days what comes. But be assured this is still a snow producing pattern, no sustained warmth in the foreseeable future.

[mackerel_sky]

Seems as though the 0z runs were GFS too warm, Canadian and Euro, drop the arctic hammer around the 18th - 20th

[BristowWx]

I think most of us have had the patience of a monk on anti-depressants but it seems every threat window that looks good at day 10 becomes not so good at 7 and evaporates inside 5.  It just doesn't want to do it this year.  It seems the Pac is screwing up something not letting short waves dig enough where we need it to and then we see cutters or something else that is above my pay grade.  No reason to think this won't keep happening even with seemingly good indices which should be causing suppression yet the op GFS wants to cut storms.  will it be correct in the end IDK but it seems like the other models are going that direction.  just my 2 cents.    

[franklin NCwx]

Seems as though the 0z runs were GFS too warm, Canadian and Euro, drop the arctic hammer around the 18th - 20th

gets really cold after the miller screw. I thought the eps looked uninspiring in the long range. The gefs and Canadian ensembles want to build a nice ridge out west around day 9-10 with continued blocking up north.

[BullCityWx]

It wouldnt be a great deal but the euro did advertise the idea of first flakes for most areas who havent seen them on Sunday. 

[isohume]

Wholesale changes once again with 0z Goofus...@ 192 curious where she goes

 

That model sucks. Why do you even look at it? I mean, why do you need to know a "modeled" projection at day 8 anyway?  

[max100]

From James Spann, hmmmm.

 

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: No sign of any brutally cold Arctic air or winter mischief for at least the next 10 days