January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

[DopplerWx]

not sure this is gonna do it, dont like that look at 192 over tx.

[SN_Lover]

Umm I'm not really sure what you're looking at. At hour 147 the 10 degree line runs I-95 in NC and SC. The 20 degree line is well south of Cuba.

[SN_Lover]

not sure this is gonna do it, dont like that look at 192 over tx.

Yea, too zonal this run. Not gonna do it. Well see what the 0z does. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Umm I'm not really sure what you're looking at. At hour 147 the 10 degree line runs I-95 in NC and SC. The 20 degree line is well south of Cuba.

Ah ok I thought you said 850s in your first post

[Jon]

This run is terrible...I give you the GFS ladies and gentlemen.

 

12z run

 

18z run

 

GFS right now:

[SN_Lover]

GFS right now:

Yup, this sums it up. 

[Stormcatt]

This run is terrible...I give you the GFS ladies and gentlemen.

12z run

18z run

GFS right now:

Simple 12z had a western ridge 18z did not

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[wh_adkins01]

Definitely feel the need to lean toward the euro right now.. Seems to have somewhat of a better handle on this upcoming weekend.. Still a tossup however

[Met1985]

Simple 12z had a western ridge 18z did not

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The other problem is we are getting big time changes from one run to the next. Pretty simple yes. No consistency.

[Met1985]

Definitely feel the need to lean toward the euro right now.. Seems to have somewhat of a better handle on this upcoming weekend.. Still a tossup however

Euro is pretty lost in my opinion also. We have been getting some wild swings from it also. It's very hard to trust the models out past 5 days at the moment.

[cg2916]

Euro is pretty lost in my opinion also. We have been getting some wild swings from it also. It's very hard to trust the models out past 5 days at the moment.

The last 2 runs of the Euro show differences as early as Thursday. If it can't even handle up till then, we can't trust anything past it.

[pcbjr]

  We will resume when analog broadcast signals are re-established.

 

 

 

[griteater]

Not a GFS fan, but I'll say this, it's been the first to pick up on the idea of warmer and farther north with these systems....so, can't knock it, and it's been better than the Euro suite in that regard.

[BristowWx]

Wow. The 18z is horrendous. I mean it doesn't show much of anything for anyone. I have to think when this all shakes out in a few days....never mind.

[franklin NCwx]

Not a GFS fan, but I'll say this, it's been the first to pick up on the idea of warmer and farther north with these systems....so, can't knock it, and it's been better than the Euro suite in that regard.

it's all the northern stream s/w that keep showing up and screwing up the whole conus.

[Cold Rain]

Not a GFS fan, but I'll say this, it's been the first to pick up on the idea of warmer and farther north with these systems....so, can't knock it, and it's been better than the Euro suite in that regard.

All this negativity tonight! Why are you always so negative?

[griteater]

All this negativity tonight! Why are you always so negative?

I went negative, but I didn't cancel Jan, or Feb, or Mar, or next winter, or the next decade 

[Cold Rain]

I went negative, but I didn't cancel Jan, or Feb, or Mar, or next winter, or the next decade

Yet.

[UNCCmetgrad]

This run is terrible...I give you the GFS ladies and gentlemen.

 

12z run

 

 

18z run

 

 

 

 

 

With run to run differences like this I just don't see the value of running this model 4 times a day.  Hopefully in 5 years or so we will have a replacement.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/index.html

[griteater]

18z GEFS at day 9 is pretty good...9 days to keep it there

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

   There are just so many pieces of energy, that the models have no idea which one will be the trigger. It will happen, but the question is.... who will cash in. It may be the southeast or the deep south. Who knows at this point. We knew this would be the problem with a super El-Nino pattern, Lots of southern stream potential.

   As they say in baseball language "Let's play station to station guys".... meaning, take a few days at a time. Don't look to far out. That's the best way to navigate the waters right now.

[isohume]

With run to run differences like this I just don't see the value of running this model 4 times a day.  Hopefully in 5 years or so we will have a replacement.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/index.html

I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

[Jon]

I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

Restricting taxpayer funded model data is not the answer.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

 

I am ok with that as long as they don't use my tax dollars to fund it. Otherwise, I should be able to see what I am paying for....

 

Edit.... I see Jon beat me to it...lol

[DaculaWeather]

I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

Even if you explain to to them, they just ask the same question over again. They don't read what gets written, it's either snow or no snow to them.

[isohume]

Restricting taxpayer funded model data is not the answer.

Oh I know it will never happen. I just wish it could. A little fantasy of mine.

[isohume]

Even if you explain to to them, they just ask the same question over again. They don't read what gets written, it's either snow or no snow to them.

That's very true. It's like a lot of the phone calls we get encompassing every customer group. You tell them what's up, confidence, etc, and they either ignore it or continue with the same questions hoping for a different answer or an answer they want. But I regress.

[UNCCmetgrad]

I'm okay with 4 runs. I just wish NOAA could limit public domain model output to 60 hrs. There's just too much confusion and misinterpretation going on. Seems every other day someone will ask me about the winter storm headed our way that they heard about on the internet.

I think they should limit snowfall maps to 120hrs and in. With all of the factors that can change how much snow an area gets combined with model uncertainty they are of little use anyway.

[isohume]

I think they should limit snowfall maps to 120hrs and in. With all of the factors that can change how much snow an area gets combined with model uncertainty they are of little use anyway.

Yeah the clown maps dont help. We only output storm total snowfall maps within day 4. I wish we'd cut that to day 3 tho. It always changes and folks sometimes flip out over that.

Mods move this all to banter if you want. Dont want to clog this thread.

[mrdaddyman]

With run to run differences like this I just don't see the value of running this model 4 times a day.  Hopefully in 5 years or so we will have a replacement.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/nggps/index.html

 

If someone knows please shed some light on something. Aren't the upgrades they are applying to these models give them higher resolution output? If so, isn't that just higher resolution crap? I mean, shouldn't they work on actually getting them more accurate and useful first?