HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Southern branch will continue to be active. With the -AO setting up, these systems will finally be suppressed. Might as well not even try to predict something over 5 days out with so much activity.Dec 16th-21st looks like a good period. Not sure I see a big dog in this pattern, but a quick hitter popping up on the models wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 But that's the thing.. We don't have the cold air. We have it for a day or 2 but when the moisture shows up, the cold air goes away. Look at forecast highs for central NC next week. Nothing that special with the moisture is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 From RAH this afternoon... BY THE WEEKEND... INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SATURDAY PERIOD... THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OF A THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES INDUCING ONE OF MORE STORM SYSTEMS. THERE CONTINUED TO BE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS (POTENTIAL COLD AIR AND/OR STORMINESS) TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... A BOTTOM LINE NOTE... THE ARCTIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ENSEMBLE FORECASTS BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A TROUGH (COLDER THAN NORMAL) CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED DOMINANCE OF THE EL NINO ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES - THIS MAY VERY WELL SIGNAL INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMINESS AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER ALONG THE SE/E COAST. UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. BUT STAY TUNED. That is enough to keep me interested. NWS is kind of like Dad in this equation keeping us in check. I commend them for being able to capture in two paragraphs the bottom line. Nothing fancy just meat and potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 At first glance, 12z EPS is much improved in the trough (storm) for 1/18 at 500mb. 540 line is further south, and the mean is MUCH colder temps at 850mb... Amazing what 24 hours can do. -16 850's now over the lakes on the new mean, huge run IMO. Looks cold enough to me. Low locations: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 12z Euro ensembles have a pretty decent mean snowfall over NC and parts of SC/GA through D10. I counted 13 different members showing a decent hit through day 10, mainly between the 17-20th seems to be the timeframe. I didn't look past day 10 since that's getting way too far out in time but a decent signal for something across the SE. Not sure how it compares to previous runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Good post Jon. Saw where like 60% show snow in the SE over the next 10 days. All the shortwave flying around its tough to zero in on one more than 5 days out. Best bet is to focus on the one coming Thursday and see if we can luck up with it some shape form or fasion. From what I'm seeing on the ensembles it's gonna take more luck to not see wintry weather than to see it over the next 10 days. Odds are in our favor. We can all look at how it can't work out or how it could possibly work out. In the end mother nature has already decided. The sport is like the models just trying to uncover the mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 LOL...GEFS and CMC-ENS both go seasonal day 9+, straight trainwreck of a pattern. 850 line is up in VA. 98 incoming.... EPS disagrees. We. Shall. See. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Good post Jon. Saw where like 60% show snow in the SE over the next 10 days. All the shortwave flying around its tough to zero in on one more than 5 days out. Best bet is to focus on the one coming Thursday and see if we can luck up with it some shape form or fasion. From what I'm seeing on the ensembles it's gonna take more luck to not see wintry weather than to see it over the next 10 days. Odds are in our favor. We can all look at how it can't work out or how it could possibly work out. In the end mother nature has already decided. The sport is like the models just trying to uncover the mystery. this x10000. Anyone who thinks this period doesn't have potential needs to take a look at 500mb vorticity maps. I'll post them but I feel like everyone has access to them and it seems redundant, but it's the truth. The two pieces of energy that forms the 1/17-1/18 system is in the pacific at 72-84 hours, comparing the pieces of energy to each other from run to run, the GFS can't even nail down what that energy looks like at 72 hours....how is it supposed to nail a storm track Day 7-8? Just absurd to think this system is toast at this point, it's just wrong to write it off at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Next weekend looks very low chance to me now for something to work out - the overall shift has been north and warmer (same with yesterday's storm). So, let's move the goal posts forward The pattern thereafter for the first time shows delivery of a quality high pressure into the northern plains (in response to the -NAO block). The big 3 ensembles all show this. That's key #1, does the pattern deliver that quality high pressure - if no, the rest is moot. If it works, we then look for southern waves underneath the cold high (i.e. 12z GFS Op). 17/51 Euro Ens members have snow east of the mountains during that timeframe, so, a decent signal this far out in fantasy land. If no quality high, or everything shifts north and warmer like we've been seeing, then we continue to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 this x10000. Anyone who thinks this period doesn't have potential needs to take a look at 500mb vorticity maps. I'll post them but I feel like everyone has access to them and it seems redundant, but it's the truth. The two pieces of energy that forms the 1/17-1/18 system is in the pacific at 72-84 hours, comparing the pieces of energy to each other from run to run, the GFS can't even nail down what that energy looks like at 72 hours....how is it supposed to nail a storm track Day 7-8? Just absurd to think this system is toast at this point, it's just wrong to write it off at this point. Your maps show it being cold enough. As long as that is the case, then the rest of the business about shortwaves and storm track error holds water. But if the PV is up in central Canada, then it really doesn't matter about whether or not a storm develops or where it tracks. The "models are going to struggle outside of 24 hours", while true, won't matter a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Next weekend looks very low chance to me now for something to work out - the overall shift has been north and warmer (same with yesterday's storm). So, let's move the goal posts forward The pattern thereafter for the first time shows delivery of a quality high pressure into the northern plains (in response to the -NAO block). The big 3 ensembles all show this. That's key #1, does the pattern deliver that quality high pressure - if no, the rest is moot. If it works, we then look for southern waves underneath the cold high (i.e. 12z GFS Op). 17/51 Euro Ens members have snow east of the mountains during that timeframe, so, a decent signal this far out in fantasy land. If no quality high, or everything shifts north and warmer like we've been seeing, then we continue to wait. [good post] We keep saying the same things! [/good post] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 [good post] We keep saying the same things! [/good post] Ha, I know right! I will say, the Huffman brothers have been more interested in that period than anything prior I do believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Next weekend looks very low chance to me now for something to work out - the overall shift has been north and warmer (same with yesterday's storm). So, let's move the goal posts forward The pattern thereafter for the first time shows delivery of a quality high pressure into the northern plains (in response to the -NAO block). The big 3 ensembles all show this. That's key #1, does the pattern deliver that quality high pressure - if no, the rest is moot. If it works, we then look for southern waves underneath the cold high (i.e. 12z GFS Op). 17/51 Euro Ens members have snow east of the mountains during that timeframe, so, a decent signal this far out in fantasy land. If no quality high, or everything shifts north and warmer like we've been seeing, then we continue to wait. I'm willing to hold out a little longer on a possible storm 7 days away but I agree completely with the pattern afterwards, seems like we really do need a nice high pressure first, and s/w's to just track under...overwhelming HP suppressing the storms this year doesn't seem like that much of a concern, so the colder the better, within reason. Maybe the missed opportunity sets everything up the week following, just not ready until the lows are more clustered on the ensembles and the energy gets figured out, and I'm guessing that takes another 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You guys gotta be pumped for happy hour 18z...I mean that was such epic op run I saved it in my files and I don't even live I the SE...good luck and may the force be with you....my advice is get plowed first then either way it will seem ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You guys gotta be pumped for happy hour 18z...I mean that was such epic op run I saved it in my files and I don't even live I the SE...good luck and may the force be with you....my advice is get plowed first then either way it will seem ok Of course we would love to see the storm show on the GFS; but a win at this range is to keep the right pattern configuration. Even if the storm eventually verified correct, no way the models will stay consistent this far out. **I think a lot of folks were already plowed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Kirk Mellish in Atlanta has an interesting column/blog. http://m.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2016/jan/10/winter-weather-pattern-watch/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Ha, I know right! I will say, the Huffman brothers have been more interested in that period than anything prior I do believe The focus has been on mid Jan and later for a while now, anything before Jan 15th is/was straight butter....kinda like the flurries last week, the pattern we are in now can and has produced in the past but its like Cold Rain said its all about threading the needle, if the models are right with the block and setup after Jan 15th we will have a huge "eye" of the needle and the chances of someone, somewhere outside of the mts getting a snow is the SE goes way up compared to "normal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I for the life of me can't see what's so bad looking on the ensembles. Where is the 98 pattern some are talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You guys gotta be pumped for happy hour 18z...I mean that was such epic op run I saved it in my files and I don't even live I the SE...good luck and may the force be with you....my advice is get plowed first then either way it will seem ok Pretty damn sure it will not have the same results, I would love the GFS to lock in on it and never waver once between now and then and be right to boot.....but come on its the GFS 10 days out, of course its gonna have a lake cutter on the 18Z. I would be happy for it to still have a similar setup even if the low placement/timing isnt the same, at least have something close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Kirk Mellish in Atlanta has an interesting column/blog. http://m.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2016/jan/10/winter-weather-pattern-watch/ That is a good reality check. Should be posted somewhere for everybody to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 18z- sub 1000mb Colorado with no moisture. Oh GFS, keeping things interesting and creating jobs to fix you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I for the life of me can't see what's so bad looking on the ensembles. Where is the 98 pattern some are talking about? Lol there ain't no 98 pattern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The low on the 15th really stronger than other runs and therefore pulling more warm air from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The low on the 15th really stronger than other runs and therefore pulling more warm air from the gulf.Been a Rainer for last couple of days, we are onto the 20-23rd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 according to the 18z mountains dont get snow on the 15-16th. 10C nudging the SC/NC boarder. 20C trying to move over the continent, but still offshore. 147- 20C entering NC and SC. Deff warmer than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 From GSP NWS: My take on this afternoon's NWS discussion is that they admit that they don't know with any certainty what's going to happen beyond 5 days. With the timing issues surrounding all the energy that will be flowing through the STJ, it may be mid week before we know what's in store for this weekend .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS PROBLEMATIC WITH ANACTIVE SRN STREAM AND SOME MARGINALLY COLD AIR...WHICH RAISES THEPOSSIBILITY OF PRECIP-TYPE ISSUES. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENTWITH BUILDING A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE ON THE E COAST AND MOVING THERIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILLEXPOSE THE CAROLINAS TO A TRACK OF SRN STREAM SHORT WAVES. THE FIRSTONE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE NEXT WAVELOOKS MORE VIGOROUS AND SHOULD BRING SOME MID/UPPER FORCING UP FROMTHE SW LATE FRIDAY. THE NEW ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS SO A BLENDON THE TIMING OF ONSET WAS TAKEN...WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPACROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING AND HAS IT PERSISTING THRU SATURDAYMORNING. THE PROBLEM WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPS OVER THE MTNS. STRONGWARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD BRING A WARM NOSE ACROSS THEMTNS AS THE PRECIP ARRIVES...AND SO FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANYPRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN...WITH FREEZING RAIN IN ANY OFTHE MTN VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR GETS TRAPPED. THIS COULD BE ENUF TOWARRANT AN ADVISORY AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE...BUT THERE IS STILLA GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE WARM ADVECTION ARRIVESAND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT SATURDAYMORNING AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ALLOWED TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHTCHANCE. THEN THINGS GET EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE INTHE SERIES...WHICH SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE SW ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANDSUNDAY. THIS WAVE LOOKS EVEN STRONGER ON THE GFS...AND THAT MODEL ISFASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS MORE SHEARED WITH THE NEXT WAVE.THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LARGE...WITH A SOMEWHATDISORGANIZED MILLER B IN THE GFS...AND VERY LITTLE SFC REFLECTION ONTHE ECMWF. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW. IN DEFERENCE TO THECOLDER ECMWF...THAT MEANS ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE MTNS FROMSATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WILL BE AN ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW. INDEFERENCE TO THE STRONGER GFS...THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF THUNDEROVER THE ERN ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCEREMAINS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Might be setting us up nicely for the next system. Heights are lover behind the departing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Just to illustrate how little of an idea the GFS has as to what's going on... Today's 12Z out to 0Z Saturday: Today's 18Z out to 0Z Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 colder at 174, snow/rain mix for nc with limited precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 according to the 18z mountains dont get snow on the 15-16th. 10C nudging the SC/NC boarder. 20C trying to move over the continent, but still offshore. 147- 20C entering NC and SC. Deff warmer than previous runs. Umm I'm not really sure what you're looking at. At hour 147 the 10 degree line runs I-95 in NC and SC. The 20 degree line is well south of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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