packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 So far, any sustained cold weather has remained in the LR. So the eye of the needle will remain really small if and until that changes. At least we're seeing fantasy snow on the Ops now. Remember a few days ago how we were complaining about that? Baby Steps, by Dr. Leo Marvin. Unfortunately we are wasting this great -NAO, GEFS and EPS completely breakdown the AO/NAO after the 19th. Not sure how bad things get after that. I do think/hope blocking returns in Feb as I think we need it to get anything substantial (+3"). It's a bummer really, this next 10 days could have been really good had the PV just swung east and not split. Oh well, atleast we can win $1.3 billion in the lottery next week, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Unfortunately we are wasting this great -NAO, GEFS and EPS completely breakdown the AO/NAO after the 19th. Not sure how bad things get after that. I do think/hope blocking returns in Feb as I think we need it to get anything substantial (+3"). It's a bummer really, this next 10 days could have been really good had the PV just swung east and not split. Oh well, atleast we can win $1.3 billion in the lottery next week, LOL.By the next drawing, it will probably be at least $1.5B!And this example illustrates why you can have a favorable alignment of index values and still suck. It's like the Wolfpack always looking decent on paper. You still have to put it together on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0z Jan 9th EPS run 2 members support op day 5-6 event. 14/51 members get flakes in the area by the 19th 23/51 members by 24th 12z Jan 9th EPS update 4/51 have snow in NC for day 5 event 19/51 have snow by 19th in central NC 0z Jan 10th EPS update 0/51 members have snow for day 5 event 12/51 members have snow for central NC 10/51 members have snow by 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 There is good ensemble support for an east coat storm days 7-8 with a track off the coast. The potential in the next 7-10 days is still there, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 There is good ensemble support for an east coat storm days 7-8 with a track off the coast. The potential in the next 7-10 days is still there, IMO. Was just about to post that...this is so close to being a major winter storm for a lot of NC, I still think w-NC get's on the scoreboard with this one. I do think the w-NC up through the MA to NE get a good winter storm out of this, curious to see how far this actually climbs though. Still reminds me of a 1/29/10 event, just this will be warmer. It was a great shot for alot of folks (non-elevation) but would need some big changes at this point and things are going the wrong with respect to cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Pack, what are you looking at in regards to the ensembles? Below is the day 10 and day 15 of All globals how is the ao and nao completely broken down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Euro ensembles. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Honestly I don't know what to think about our snow chances. Reading through the post from last night(euro, ensembles, etc.) and you would think we still have a chance in the next 10 days, but looking at the 6z GFS it would say wait until days 10-16. Just in a wait mode.. Banter*** Talking about the lottery, that is truly an amazing amount of money. Even taking the payout and then taxed, somebody could clear near 600 million. If you invest it wisely you could maybe get neat 2 million a month for the rest of your life. Imagine having an allowance of 2 million a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Euro ensembles. .eps_z500a_nh_41.png eps_z500a_nh_61.png You can clearly see lower heights in the AO region and yes you do have higher heights over Greenland but you have lost low heights over Nova Scotia. What do indexes say, can't believe they would read negative? On my phone so hard to check. Not our typical snowy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You can clearly see lower heights in the AO region and yes you do have higher heights over Greenland but you have lost low heights over Nova Scotia. What do indexes say, can't believe they would read negative? On my phone so hard to check. Not our typical snowy pattern.Lol if this pattern does not produce then we are cursed this month. As Franklin has just poster that's not a bad look. You say not our snowy pattern but we have seen snow with a lot worst looking patterns. I think the pattern relaxes towards the end of the month to reload for February. Could be wrong but we have seen the indices change from run to run. If we can not produce in a plus pna which looks to strengthen as we go out in time and a negative ao and nao then it's just not our time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You can clearly see lower heights in the AO region and yes you do have higher heights over Greenland but you have lost low heights over Nova Scotia. What do indexes say, can't believe they would read negative? On my phone so hard to check. Not our typical snowy pattern.you can see the heights building back over the pole towards the end of the run. The low over new foundland is from a storm you have high pressure building over Hudson bay and the Davis straits. If one read your previous post without looking for themselves they would think winter is over. I'll take my chances with that pattern any day of the week. As far as indices I never look at them as they can be misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 you can see the heights building back over the pole towards the end of the run. The low over new foundland is from a storm you have high pressure building over Hudson bay and the Davis straits. If one read your previous post without looking for themselves they would think winter is over. I'll take my chances with that pattern any day of the week. As far as indices I never look at them as they can be misleading. Never said winter is over, think Feb we will get a 1-2 week stretch like last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Looking at the indices from yesterday and it shows the PNA moving more positive in the LR. I think for the last few years that along with the EPO have been the biggest players to help us score winter storms. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Pack, what are you looking at in regards to the ensembles? Below is the day 10 and day 15 of All globals how is the ao and nao completely broken down? gefs_z500a_nh_65.png gefs_z500a_nh_41.png cmc_z500a_exnamer_65.png cmc_z500a_exnamer_41.png He is broke down, not the models! And even if the NAO goes towards positive or neutral, that's the point we get alot of our winter storms, so that will be fine and why the 18-21, will be our shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 surface temps way warm on my end...... like wayyyy. warm. Yep.....still a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yep.....still a rainstorm You related to Shetley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 You related to Shetley! +13 for Dec and the first part of Jan mby is still sitting at +1.8.....the rainstorms continue EDIT: I still believe someone outside of the mts will have snow before March though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I think it'll be too warm for any chances here in central NC.. even with the 18/19 storm. NW NC may get something..VA...but Central NC too warm. On to February IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Looking at the indices from yesterday and it shows the PNA moving more positive in the LR. I think for the last few years that along with the EPO have been the biggest players to help us score winter storms. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Yep you are correct. The epo was predominantly thr driver of winter. Lol we finally get some blocking and nothing to show for it at the moment. Crazy how patterns work or don't work. We say all we need is blocking and we get blocking then we are like we'll we need something else like a magic wand lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I love when people punt an entire month before the 1/3rd mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Clear pretty clear we're not going to get these storms in full view until they're coming up on us. Timing & strength matters a lot with these waves rolling through the STJ. But I do like seeing the GFS keeping them suppressed and weak in the mid/long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I love when people punt an entire month before the 1/3rd mark. Yeah makes me wonder if they were a NFL coach if they would punt on 2nd down. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Like I always say, give me a pattern that drives legit cold air into the region first. Cold first, then storms...especially this year. Mild cold won't usually work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Interestingly, there really is no Euro ensemble support for the solution the operational gives Friday into Saturday. In fact, many of the Euro ensemble members have a nice low tucked a little off the NC coast. That wold obviously be a setup that gives parts of the region a chance. In turn, on the EPS, you sacrifice the system Sunday for the one Friday-Saturday...so the nice little system that pops Sunday on the operational Euro is not there. One other note I will say....I see lots of mentions of blocks not doing the trick and such. The blocks have to actually develop in reality first, and not just in model-land. If a big block actually does develop, that means something totally different than seeing one develop and then fall apart just as quickly in model la-la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Interestingly, there really is no Euro ensemble support for the solution the operational gives Friday into Saturday. In fact, many of the Euro ensemble members have a nice low tucked a little off the NC coast. That wold obviously be a setup that gives parts of the region a chance. In turn, on the EPS, you sacrifice the system Sunday for the one Friday-Saturday...so the nice little system that pops Sunday on the operational Euro is not there. One other note I will say....I see lots of mentions of blocks not doing the trick and such. The blocks have to actually develop in reality first, and not just in model-land. If a big block actually does develop, that means something totally different than seeing one develop and then fall apart just as quickly in model la-la land. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Great to see East show up for the party. I guess the Euro overnight keeps hope alive for next weekend into the following week. Still 10 days away, though. Funny how the overnight Euro run has done this two times in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Clear pretty clear we're not going to get these storms in full view until they're coming up on us. Timing & strength matters a lot with these waves rolling through the STJ. But I do like seeing the GFS keeping them suppressed and weak in the mid/long range. This X100 people punting the month cause its to warm at the surface a week+ out is hilarious.....the GFS almost NEVER has a winter storm right for NC in the 5-10 day range in a split flow pattern ( hell or any other pattern lol).....the pattern setup assuming the block actually forms screams low off NC moving ENE exactly like we like em. The real question is do models have the overall blocking pattern right or not.....at this point nothing else matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 This X100 people punting the month cause its to warm at the surface a week+ out is hilarious.....the GFS almost NEVER has a winter storm right for NC in the 5-10 day range in a split flow pattern ( hell or any other pattern lol).....the pattern setup assuming the block actually forms screams low off NC moving ENE exactly like we like em. The real question is do models have the overall blocking pattern right or not.....at this point nothing else matters.There's no way the models have the blocking right because even that hasn't been consistent. At this point who knows if good blocking is actually going to form. Yesterday it looked like everything was gonna break down then maybe not. Too much confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Good point about the block. Question--Was a block modeled to develop by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Good point about the block. Question--Was a block modeled to develop by now? GFS for today 120 hours out: And the ECMWF: Versus the actual: Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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