packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Pack - go to bed and try again tomorrow, haha. This winter isn't close to being over. Check out the EXCAM http://models.wxmidwest.com/ Not saying this is going to happen verbatim, but there's not a single bad look at 500mb for any of the weeks available or the month of February. And a lot of those have awesome snowy Nino looks for NC. And we roast next weekend, loving it. This will go down with the Nino's of 92/95...like I said I will take a 98 repeat in a heartbeat, colder and snowier, LOL.Don't believe fantasy day 10 ensembles, fools gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 And we roast next weekend, loving it. This will go down with the Nino's of 92/95...like I said I will take a 98 repeat in a heartbeat, colder and snowier, LOL. What this has taught us is doing take ensembles past day 8, fools gold. Maybe for your area, but 91-92 was an epic winter around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Maybe for your area, but 91-92 was an epic winter around these parts. Expect a repeat then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Pack, I left a little something for you in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Pack is more frustrated than a Bengals fan right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 *runs back stage crying* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 00z is warmer than it's ensembles...and the high is much more west on the Op. TOO WARM. I hope that means something to somebody, or I'll just keep talking to myself. Edit: Just realized I posted 2m instead of 850's, but same point...colder at 850's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 00z is warmer than it's ensembles...and the high is much more west on the Op. TOO WARM. I hope that means something to somebody, or I'll just keep talking to myself. I think that's good! But it's over my head ! Are you saying the ensembles don't support the crappy op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Jon, You'll have to help me out here. The first is the OP which is showing to far west and the 2nd is the ensemble???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I think that's good! But it's over my head ! Are you saying the ensembles don't support the crappy op run? Jon, You'll have to help me out here. The first is the OP which is showing to far west and the 2nd is the ensemble???? Yeah you can see the colder mean on the bottom image (widespread bright blue and dark blue), the operational is the top image which is much warmer over our area. One would argue it's because the low comes inland, but that's only half of it. Compare, also, the high. Pick something easy to see, like the 1026mb line on the bottom image to the top image. The 1026mb line is much more north on the top image (operational) than the bottom image (ensemble) which simply means the 00z run should be thrown out. As NCrain said earlier, once the PV split the high didn't slide down so it was screwed for the 1/17 storm Ignore my bad mspaint skills. (Green = ensemble mean 1026mb line, yellow is 1026mb line on operational which is pictured) Essentially the high is playing catch up on the OP, and can't get here fast enough. Ensemble argues differently. I'm going to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Well, I guess the Canadian is good. I just can't believe we can't get snow before the end of the month with a -AO/-NAO and +PNA. This is supposed to be the best setup possible to give us snow. If that doesn't work out then it seems we really have no idea when we have a good chance at snow here and it's just all luck. It seems lately whatever can go wrong will. Still a lot of winter to go, but if we can't get snow out of this then it seems there really is no such thing as good potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Cutoff low in the panhandle of TX on the Euro @129 surface temps aren't any good for us though yet. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Cutoff low in the panhandle of TX on the Euro @129 surface temps aren't any good for us though yet. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk This run is just all over the place already, it looks funky. Crap is just flying everywhere, for a lack of a better word. Looks wrong on the surface and at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 This run is just all over the place already, it looks funky. Crap is just flying everywhere, for a lack of a better word. Looks wrong on the surface and at 500mb.Yep kind of a strange run. Looked a little bizarre especially since the Euro hasn't really showed that look. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1000mb low in east Arkansas this thing is going to end up way too far north west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 1000mb low in east Arkansas this thing is going to end up way too far north west yeah it does this weird cut and then a coastal pops off as well, not a true Miller B either. Too far apart. It's two different systems. ha. 1/17 storm is there at 174hrs, not nearly as cold as yesterday's 00z...we'll see where it goes 1008mb in gulf at 180, this will be suppressed and warm, next. Too fast. Edit: wait a minute, 1004mb off of GA/SC line... BOOM! Sub-1000mb off coast of NC @192 (00z 1/18)...snow in NC/SC/GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Well at 180 it's trying to do something big. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Big Miller A @186. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yum and crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Big Miller A @186. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Yep, this should wake up pack pretty well in the morning. It's wild how it was 1008mb off of panama city beach and still worked out, I was for sure it would be too warm or suppressed, but nope...we have a nice Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 May be another in the pipeline here shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 surface temps way warm on my end...... like wayyyy. warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 May be another in the pipeline here shortly with that monster high I can't see this not working out at 240hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Biggest thing seems to be getting the blocking ridge to clear thru central Canada. Once it does, the cold high comes down and it's game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Nice High and that's what it will take for the really far south people to ever make it in the game for winter weather in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Everything gets cold and squashed at the end. Looks like some wintry precip deep into LA just going by 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Nice High and that's what it will take for the really far south people to ever make it in the game for winter weather in the LR. If you extrapolate the Euro out it's possibly another Miller A...tons of cold w/ low in gulf edit: JK, suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 6Z GFS and the 0Z EC/GGEM each indicate potential back-to-back wintry systems (to varying degrees) for the 17th and then 19/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 So far, any sustained cold weather has remained in the LR. So the eye of the needle will remain really small if and until that changes. At least we're seeing fantasy snow on the Ops now. Remember a few days ago how we were complaining about that? Baby Steps, by Dr. Leo Marvin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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