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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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I would hate to watch a ball game with some of you guys. Good grief! Guy's congratulate each other when a model run shows something good and are ready to cancel winter when the next model shows something unfavorable. One good snow puts me at or above climo for the season. Two good snows does the same for most on this forum. More indicators than I care to mention AGAIN would make it more likely than normal for us to have a favorable pattern for snow thru early March. A favorable pattern does not mean every model run shows snow in the short and/or long range. A favorable pattern means overall, our opportunities for snow will likely be higher than NORMAL overall for the next two months. Been in the 40s for highs most of the time since the first. That is after spending the last half of December in the 70s most of the time. That to me is a sign of a better pattern. 

 

This happens on here nearly every winter. Don't know why I am surprised. We could go back to years past and read winters over posts days before that poster gets snowed on. Maybe being swift to hear, slow to speak, and slow to wrath would be appropriate here with regards to daily (or hourly) trends.

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I'll just leave this here... it's a worthwhile read.   There are a lot of us quiet folk who visit here mainly in an attempt to read and learn from non-angsty discussion, and WxWatcher007 does an excellent good job of categorizing the rest of the stuff happening in this thread. :D

 

There are some really great and extremely knowledgeable posters on this board, but sometimes what they have to say gets lost amongst the rest of it.  Model consistency complaints and disappointment in fantasy stuff changing beyond the next few days have been really gumming up the works, in particular.  I personally think it would be awesome to have a specific vent thread (and frankly it could be a lot of fun to read, but separate from the serious discussion topic).

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47563-january-medlong-range-disco-part-2/?p=3841637

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From Larry Cosgrove:

The recent expansion of convection over the Indian Ocean gave pause to many forecasters who support the colder JFM portion of the winter forecast. As it turns out, however, the broad area of tropical forcing near and to the right of the International Dateline is holding steady. With the continued promise of both amplifying the northern branch jet stream into a complex blocking pattern (+PNA/-AO/-NAO) and enhancing the subtropical wind field, our thoughts turn to what sections of the nation will be coldest over the rest of January. And where the storm track will set up.

I made a small alteration in my analog list, discarding one insertion of 1998 and adding 1958. The similarities of the winter 40 years ago are impressive, from the +PDO signature, the weakening but still strong El Nino, and the development of cold intrusions under formative blocking ridges at high latitudes. While no season is an exact match for the present day, the evolution of the current winter has some strong parallels that cannot be ignored.

The snow cover is expected to expand south and east over the next ten days. At the same time, the "triple block" at 500MB seems destined to continue, and trash some of the expectations for a "winter cancel" that flowed from both media and scientific sources since last summer. I suspect that the atmosphere is going to try and "right itself", as both atmospheric and oceanic temperatures have been unusually high since late last summer.

If you run the revised analogs for 500MB and temperature forecasts, you come up with these conclusions. One, that any "January Thaw" will be brief; we have already had a warm response for so long, it makes no sense in climatology to revert existing upper air patterns so quickly again. Another is the storm threat. As you can see by my hemispheric plots between January 20 - 29, the risk for a true monster disturbance, and follow-up cold advection, is very high. The model ensemble forecasts are supportive of a energy digging through California, then proceeding through Texas and Dixie before moving just off of the East Coast. I suspect the time frame is a little slow. But you get the picture that something impressive could happen if the comparison mean is correct. This system in theory would produce abundant snow cover well to the south and east of what is expected with the January 17 - 20 system. Also, the potential for widespread and likely long-lasting cold must be mentioned.

The blended projection for February calls for a warm/dry West vs. cold and stormy East, but with a slight difference. Note the extensive dry anomaly over the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, while a higher precipitation risk is present along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard. This speaks of an Arctic air mass presence which keeps the base storm track offshore from the South and Coastal Plain.

Wonder what could result from that arrangement in the Interstate 10, 20 and 95 corridors? ;) But for now, that is just speculation. Get set for an active, and wintry, January 2016 forecast.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on

Saturday, January 9, 2015 at 7:40 P.M. CT

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You know it's bad when I am the one with positive posts! JB already calling for the pullback...what's a pullback from no snow

lol... I'm positive. JB is only calling for a pullback from what is coming and only because the 12z eps doesn't have a -ao. The cmc and gefs keep it though.
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lol... I'm positive. JB is only calling for a pullback from what is coming and only because the 12z eps doesn't have a -ao. The cmc and gefs keep it though.

Yeah, I just read what he said. I don't see the negativity in his post either? Pullback from way below normal, can still leave you below normal and probably more stormier!!! 

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Yeah, I just read what he said. I don't see the negativity in his post either? Pullback from way below normal, can still leave you below normal and probably more stormier!!!

Then why have a mea culpa post like that at 9pm on a Sat night...he clearly stated he expected SE/E trough to not hold and for it to hook back up to GOA trough, assuming no -AO. He is smart, he can see that and that makes sense but he is a great salesman too and ranted on about Jan 10 pullback that was like a week. Smoke and mirrors. SSWE or bust.

Also, we haven't gotten to way below normal, I think heart of country/southern plains may be cold but we will see how far east it pushes.

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Maybe I have just been gone too long, but I remember a time when suppressed through Central FL was a good thing 5-7 days out.

 

 

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You have been gone a long time.  These days when a low moves over FL in the winter it is not suppressed by a cold high-pressure system.  Rather it is pulled south by the Equatorial Vortex.

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Then why have a mea culpa post like that at 9pm on a Sat night...he clearly stated he expected SE/E trough to not hold and for it to hook back up to GOA trough, assuming no -AO. He is smart, he can see that and that makes sense but he is a great salesman too and ranted on about Jan 10 pullback that was like a week. Smoke and mirrors. SSWE or bust.

Also, we haven't gotten to way below normal, I think heart of country/southern plains may be cold but we will see how far east it pushes.

I agree on the cold, We've not been well below normal here yet!!! The cold probably is going to stay west of the mountains (Coldest) that is. You may be right? I can sense a little step back if you will. But he said IF there is no -AO! IDK I didn't think it was all that negative.... JMO

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Went back past 30 years to look at the worst east coast snowcover through Jan 9th and the usual clunkers showed up (2012, 2007, 2000, 1995, 1992). This winter is hands down the worst, 1992 was closest. 2000 had that great 10 day stretch but the rest ended as they started for our area. Can we rekindle a little 2000 magic...

Odds are we don't have a huge turnaround for the east. Like I said the other day, snowy nino's are snowy by now, non-snowy nino's aren't. Will this be the one Nino that defies the odds.

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Thanks, CR! That's a great read from Cosgrove!

Agreed thanks for sharing. It would seem he favors a storm for the Deep South in the 20-23 range? He's done quite well with this winter so far imo so hopefully he is correct about the stormier, colder and snow upcoming.

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Went back past 30 years to look at the worst east coast snowcover through Jan 9th and the usual clunkers showed up (2012, 2007, 2000, 1995, 1992). This winter is hands down the worst, 1992 was closest. 2000 had that great 10 day stretch but the rest ended as they started for our area. Can we rekindle a little 2000 magic...

Odds are we don't have a huge turnaround for the east. Like I said the other day, snowy nino's are snowy by now, non-snowy nino's aren't. Will this be the one Nino that defies the odds.

 

1966 is my analog ;)

 

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